Fliujniligui's Blog Posts on People And Picks

Ah cool, I remember how to post blog and can now update my strategy.

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 22:04:07

A lot of water ran under the bridge since my last post. Water runs and now it seems credit does so again. This seems to be visible on many of my bank picks. Picking banks is not the easiest thing to do, especially last March, but with good fundamental analysis and attention paid to past manager actions while times were good, fat and easy.

There are still a lot of exploitable aberrations in the market. We had a lot of media action about investment banks recently and filtering noise out of this along with update of fundamental analysis helps target long term holds out of the crowd.

There is one bank I will tell some attributes about and name later in the text. The goal is to see what is the general impression before knowing the "intangible" factor which is the company name:

Tier 1 ratio 11% raised with ongoing earning accretion and no right issue
No involvement of government directly in capital injections and/or nationalization moves
Global presence
Market cap = 0.9x shareholders' equity
CEO has been reappointed for 3 next years following appraisal of the leadership at this bank.

This banks behave as a looser in the market, but the things seems to bode very well for long term and the market cap is very low for such a bank. Also, the great focus on climatic changes, energy efficiency and stuff like that is not only helping with reputation, but it is just creating and developing a business franchise ...

Lessons I got from my short investing career

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 20:46:03

I have been with mutual funds for 10 years, from teenager to young professional and last September and October, when I saw most of my professional managers did not foresee anything and were very performing at losing as much or more than whole market and charged me 2.5 to 3 % annual fee for doing this, I just began my investing career by selling all of this and trying to do better pick by myself for better short term and long term results.

I got decapitated by my short term results, but as headless as I could be, I believed my analysis was right and that the picks I had made were going to avoid bankruptcy. My pick log is representative of the stuff I bought for real. The trick I found is that every time AIB was going down 40%, GE down 40% or anyother, I would reassess the situation and throw as much money in it, because I tought it was sending good money after bargain making previously sent money look bad.

All of the market action seems to be driven by the difference between what it looks like and what it is and this is where my short term underperformance seem to have been the prerequisite for mid term outperformance. Indeed, if you look at my picks and the charts of them you can see how good and bad companies behaved similarly in the peak of crisis. Also the recovery doen't always look related to the quality of the underlying business. As an ...

Fliujniligui's Blog Posts on People And Picks

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Ah cool, I remember how to post blog and can now update my strategy.

Lessons I got from my short investing career