TickerBandit's Blog Posts on People And Picks

The market will likely have substantial weakness near term ...

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 09:42:40

... why might one ask?  Because the market is not uniform and bullish sentiment is too high ... particulary the RTM-Bicator :-).
As of last night the TBUI is -2.7.  The TBUI remained alarmingly negative throughout the Christmas rally.  For the past three weeks, the TBUI indicated the rally will not hold ... averaging -3.0 over the period.  But now bullishness is at levels which present the potential of a slope of hope.  Presently ... the market is a SELL.
This divergence isn't just present in near term indications.  Take for example that while the DOW is roughly 7% (70% of the average yearly return) than a year ago ... There are ... as of last night ... more issues in the RUS 3000 trading in the lower 10% of their yearly range than there are trading in the upper 10%.  There is substantial lead taking place in the broader market, Bulls outnumber Bears 3 to 1 (per aaii), and divergence is as high as it has been since the first week of August. 
Don't bank on sustained rally from here.  Mo's bear market may not be over ...  Just what happens going forward will tell the tale.   Will the high ratio of bulls remain stubbornly bullish?  Lets hope not .......

We go down ... until such time ...

Sat, 26 Nov 2011 09:05:36

we go up ...
A pretty simply concept.  Is it really all that important what the bottom price will be?  Simply refrain from one's fully desired exposure until an upside reversal occurs.
But even so ... the TBUI already indicates that today's price is likely a discount to the price twenty days from now ... so its time to begin covering any modest short positions one may have.  Values for the tickerbandicators are:
TBUI ...   4.24
TBPI ....  2.70 (This is first week in the positive for the pessimism indicator ... indicating that fear has returned to the market).
TBOI ...  -5.19 ... This one isn't saying much ... just that few stocks are exhibiting strength ...
Bottom line?  Bear market thresholds were not met in the topping phase of this correction.   There are above neutral odds that the Oct low will successfully retest and we rally to new highs. 
So the question now becomes, when and what price will the rally begin?   My answer for that question is ... when and at the price it happes.  :-)  But then that does not mean I am without a strategy :-). 
I'm covering shorts ... next week I plan to do some purchasing.  Not fully desired exposure.  Just add in weakness ...

Introducing the Ticker-Bandicators ...

Sun, 06 Nov 2011 19:59:24

... for lack of better names ... :-)  OK so I've always encouraged readers to be students of the market.  I guess that is because I am one myself.   For as long as I've been participating in the markets I have been striving to formulate better methods of forecasting and better tools for trading.  I typically focus on breadth to form strategies and the following 3 indicators arise from trends in market breadth. They are designed to provide ... in a glance ... a snap shot of the market.  Each indicator is normalized to provide a similar range of data.  They are positive when the answer is "yes".
The first indicator is the Uniformity Indicator.  It provides an early indication of when the market diverges from uniform behavior.  It answers the question ... Are the market's price trends uniform?  It is a short term indicator and when it is positive ... it forecasts  higher prices.   It is most bullish when above 3.5, modestly bullish from 1.0 to 3.5, and bearish to flat below a reading of 1.0.
The second indicator is the Pessimism Indicator.  This indicator provides coincident indication of the Market's willingness to sell the bid.  It answers the question ... Is there fear in the markets?  It is not often positive and spends ...