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Vet67to82
Vet67to82
P&P Score: 0.31 | Points: -606.29 | Accuracy: 68.73 | Average Pick Score: -4.46   Annual Return: N/A  
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Commentary
BUY: APPLE INC. (AAPL) Rating: 3
Start Price: $310.53
Points: +68.84
Created: 10/20/2010
The reports after the close Monday, and throughout the day yesterday, were good, even better than good with lots of companies beating expectations and raising outlooks.

The primary instigator for yesterday's sell off was China raising its 1 year interest rate 25 basis points ... really now? Talk about making a crater out of a pothole ... 25 bps is negligible in the greater scheme of the global financials ... and none of the other countries followed up because the conditions are internal to China. Duh!

Apple didn't sell as many units as the analysts were hoping for yet STILL beat earnings ...

( 1) Apple said it expects earnings of $4.80 per share for the December quarter on revenue of $23 billion vs analysts that are expecting earnings of $5.03 per share on revenue of $22.35

( 2) Apple said it sold nearly 4.2 million iPads, vs analysts that were expecting about 4.8 million iPads to be sold for the quarter.

( 3) Apple said IPod sales totaled 9.05 million units below analyst expectations of 9.6 million units.

Estimated Valuations Reconfirmed:

Bull $440.00
Mid $346.00 ( my 1 year target )
Bear $210.00

so, time to get back in the game!

4 Comment(s):

Author JoeJustJoe     Date 2010-10-20 21:40:21
The next fall will be MUCH steeper than the one you panic'd on last time to preserve yer gain befo Mr Sim woke up. Try to relax...yer gonna tie yerself in a knot! LOL 3J
Author Vet67to82     Date 2010-10-21 16:45:15
JoeJust Joe ... you didnt READ the comments. In the USA we have a pre-market that opens for trading from 8:00 AM ET until 9:15 AM ET. --- and --- we have an after hours market that opens at 4:15 PM ET until 8:00 PM ET. I have bought and sold in both. As far as I am concerned, a trade in the real world merits making an "update" here.

My "update" in Apple Inc, HERE, was an after trade - after thought, if you were paying attention IBM had an iffy questionable report, but I didn't sell IBM (smiling real world basis is $41.375) in the real world, and I didn't close IBM here either. If I was trying to game the system, as you suggest, I would have closed IBM too, not just APPLE.

Actually, if I was gaming the system, AND knowing how the "Black Monday" scenario was going to play out, ... I would have closed ALL my positions ... I didn't do that either ... DID I?
Author Vet67to82     Date 2010-10-22 14:25:40
Unreasonable, and questionable, analyst expections, like those regarding the sale of units of Apple products, that didn't match the earnings estimates, have been a BIG detrimental impact, to the markets, the stockholders, and to analysts that are doing a good job. If an analyst REALLY expected any company to SELL more units of produst, like 9.8 million vs 9.1 million, a huge difference of 700,000 units, should have had a detrimental impact on the "estimated" revenue, as well as all the other associated numbers. Analysts should be tracked and ranked by the SEC to give the individual market investor confidence it what analysts say, as analyst upgrades, downgrades, revisions, etc do affect stocks, securities, companies, industries, sectors, and the markets themselves.

Author Vet67to82     Date 2010-11-03 20:33:00
From my spread sheets ... based on fundamentals first and calculating the difference between the 1 year estimated target vs the Oct 29, 2010 closing price ... ... reward potential greater than +10%

November in Review
- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3436230
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