I was thinking of a buy at this point - are you still in the sell camp

Hello rjm77me,
That's a great question, thanks for asking.
The short answer is yes, I still think MON is a "SELL"
I want you to know, I do not give this answer lightly.
I have reviewed MON.
I will give you the negatives, you can find the positives yourself.
The following have a "SELL" rating.
Pechala (both near term and long term)
Columbine Capital
Ned Davis Research
Jefferson Research

Point and Figure Charting has a target of 59

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=mon,P



The following have a "HOLD" (Hold means SELL)
ValuEngine
I have uploaded some of these reports here for your review.
http://groups.google.com/group/pp-vip-lounge/subscribe?note=1

Cordially,

MAGE

Study Links Monsanto GM Corn to Organ Failure

A new study claims to have uncovered new health effects caused by genetically modified corn from the agricultural giant Monsanto. The International Journal of Biological Sciences says GM corn helped cause organ damage in rats. The study??s author called Monsanto??s GM methods ???a very serious mistake, dramatic for public health.???

Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary

MON Revenue

As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how MON's revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 10 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock's current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 4.58x and the low end of the range at 2.42x.

With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for MON of 3.84x is slightly above its historical average. This level of Price to Sales gives us a fairly neutral position on the shares. We would like to see a drop in the Price to Sales ratio of 9% given current sales figures before we would become more positive on a Price to Sales basis. Such a drop would put Price to Sales per share in line with MON's weighted historical average.
MON Cash Earnings

As the old saying goes, "Cash is King!" We look at reported Cash Earnings, but the main emphasis of our analysis involves stripping out non-cash events such as depreciation from our cash earnings analysis. This helps us view the cash flows more clearly. Nevertheless, an analysis of Cash Earnings (both reported and otherwise) is absolutely pivotal to assessing a company's value, and currently MON is above its historical average multiple of Cash Earnings. Looking at the last 10 years we can get a good understanding of what investors have grown to expect from MON. For example, MON's Cash Earnings ratio per share has fluctuated between 13.02 and 24.48 over this historical timeframe. This range is based upon a proprietary weighted methodology at Ockham, but can clearly show an investor where MON is with respect to prior business periods.

So when we look at MON, what does this slightly higher than historical level of Price to Cash Earnings mean? From the Ockham perspective, it basically represents that the market has a higher stock price attributed to this level of Cash Earnings than compared to normal. So while we view this as a negative from a valuation perspective, it certainly doesn't mean that MON couldn't rapidly improve in its value from other factors or a decline in stock price. The current Price to Cash Earnings level of 19.80 is 5% above the historical norm as calculated at Ockham. So a decline in stock price, or more hopefully, an increase in MON's Cash Earnings levels would improve our outlook for the stock.
MON Dividends

While it is not necessary to pay an attractive dividend or a dividend at all, to receive a positive rating from Ockham, we view dividends as an additionally helpful measure in determining the future potential of any company.

In MON??s case, the estimated annual dividend is $1.06 resulting in a current dividend yield of 1.40%. Similar to our review of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we evaluate dividend yields from MON against the historic high and low levels over the past 10 years. The highest dividend yield from MON over this period was 4.20% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.53% With that range in mind, MON??s current dividend yield is a full 40.80% below its median dividend yield historically. This is a negative from our perspective.

Monsanto Company was discussed on Squawk Box which was originally produced by CNBC on 2/17/2010
Squawk Box discussed Monsanto Company on 2/17/10. Joe Kernen, who highlights news and stocks each day at 6:00 AM, mentioned Monsanto Company on the program. The mention with surrounding context is displayed below.

The latest news from business television and influential blogs is always available through Ockham's RazorWire, and this news is in relation to Monsanto Company.

Monsanto Company receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. Crowd sentiment is leaning to the bearish side, according to the robust data set collected by the Motley Fool CAPS survey. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; MON has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.
???Soros's filing revealed large bets on MONSANTO, holding nearly 3. 9 million shares at the end of the quarter. That's up from 1. 1 million shares three months earlier.??? Squawk Box Feb 17, 2010 7:05 AM
Just a couple of things to take note of:
Since this tidbit appeared on Squawk Box today, Monsanto Company has had a pretty decent run trading up 0.84%.
Please visit the Squawk Box recap page for all the slices of the 16 stocks mentioned on just this one episode of the show.
This was the only mention for Monsanto Company on this show, but you can see all other stocks mentioned by Joe Kernen on Squawk Box by visiting the Squawk Box recap.
There hasn't been any additional discussion on Squawk Box, or any other business television channel followed by Ockham, about Monsanto Company MON since this mention. See all the financial news for Monsanto Company.
Interestingly, Toyota Motor Corporation ADS is the most often mentioned stock on Squawk Box, over the last 2 weeks. Site & Blog About

Major Risks
Weather Fluctuations ?? MON??s main end market is the agricultural market, which is significantly impacted by weather conditions that is unpredictable. Thus, weather fluctuations might have an adverse effect on sales.


Heightened trait competition coming from both DuPont and Syngenta ?? Each supplier will offer competing studies proving the superiority of their particular genetics or germplasm, but the main point is that growers will have more choices, which means less freedom of pricing.


Chinese Import Pressure ?? Chinese imports of glyphosate have flooded the market and generic prices are below MON??s average price to dealers. As a result, MON lost significant volumes to generics and the share loss will continue unless the Company cuts its price.

Bear of the Day
Monsanto Company (MON)
By: Zacks Equity Research
April 23, 2010 | Comments: 0

MON
Print Monsanto Company (MON) is a leading global provider of agricultural products to farmers. The company's pipeline of agricultural biotechnology products stands unmatched in the industry.
However, an intense competitive environment and the company's huge dependence on a few large customers present a risk to its top-line. Monsanto also faces foreign currency risk since a significant portion of its income comes from outside the U.S.

We are downgrading our recommendation on the stock from Neutral to Underperform based on weak results for two consecutive quarters. We believe this will continue on the basis of the guidance provided by management for fiscal 2010.

Take profit