In a personal note: Nat gas is abundant in the USA and burns cleaner, and cheaper per BTU, than coal or crude products and so is better for the planet ... if the USA converted ,,, just 30% of its nationwide trucking fleet to Nat Gas ... we'd see the air polution drop nicely, and the trade imbalance drop, and crude prices would also drop on reduced demand. WHY are we sending dollars overseas when we DON'T have to?

Yes, the "horrible EPS" all track back to the market meltdown. Crude dropped from $147 to $30, pretty much overnight, and took nat gas down with it. The nat gas companies got caught flat footed, and didn't turn off the spigots .. soooooo, nat gas inventories kept rising ... prices dropped, but expenses didn't ... that's where the loses for pretty much EVERY nat gas company are at ... HOWEVER, some companies, like CHK, started turning OFF the spigots, which eventually leads to a decernable reduction in supply ... and a rebound in nat gas prices. AND the weather helps ... unless people PLAN to freeze ... they need heat. SO, reduce the supply ... and start drawing down the supply you have on hand, and prices go up. When prices get to th $6 - $8 range ... I expect some of those spigots will be turned back on, also, I expect CHK, as they've already stated in press releases, is going to look for long term contracts, at cost + profit pricing.

One REAL good metric ... look at CHK's TBV (tangible book value) ... it's almost $19 per share ... now look at TBV for other companies ... including the "financials" ... and tell me what's a better BUY based on Price / TBV?

Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK:NYSE

$23.12 +$0.68 +3.03% Vol. 11,279,572 Tangible Book Value per share (MRQ) 18.58

Price / TBV = 23.12 / 18.58 = 1.2444

I look at a $22 CHK, with a $19 tbv, and remember MR Warren Buffett's words about takeovers and NOT paying more than 1.5 x book value.

20091211 The Commodity Research Bureau's TrendTrader is Short Crude Oil, Heating Oil, RBOB Gasoline and new Long positions in Natural Gas.

Surprise, surprise ... EIA Nat Gas report ... 12/17/2009 10:30 AM followed by 10:35 AM commentary:

" January natural gas, on the other hand has been in positive territory all session. After trading almost sideways all session the energy component began to gain momentum early this morning, rising over 2% higher to session highs of $5.611 per MMBtu. Ahead of this week's inventory data, where consensus is calling for a draw of 178 bcf, natural gas is 2.5% higher at $5.597 per MMBtu. Following the data, which showed a draw of 207 bcf, natural gas spiked to fresh highs of $5.911 per MMBtu and is 7.5% higher at $5.869 per MMBtu. "

Southern New England is experiencing a cold snap ... 14F with wind chill -1F and a Low forming in the Gulf of Mexico that could be a huge "snow" storm for the Saturday/Sunday period in Southern New England. 50% of USA homes use nat gas ... expect the Thursday US EIA to report another drawdown in nat gas supplies based on it takes MORE btus to bring a home from -1F to 70F ... and the other 50% primarily use home heating oil so expect the Wednesday US EIA to report a bigger drawdown in crude supplies. That's another reason I invest in the CHK's, UNG's, etc ... the money goes circular. When I invest in the companies, of the products I use, the money comes back to me, in dividends ... and stock price increases.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Mkt On Close "Buy" Imbalance: Shrs 73700
Tuesday 01/05/2010 3:50 PM ET

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Mkt On Close "Buy" Imbalance: Shrs 181200
Tuesday 01/05/2010 3:40 PM ET

Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK 1/6/2010 0:22 AM ET
$28.97 +$0.88 3.13% Vol 27,152,810 After Hours: $29.11 +$0.14 +0.48% Vol. 414,270

Select fundamentals:
EPS Normalized (MRFY) $4.24
Rev per share (TTM) $14.05
BV per share (MRQ) $18.58
Tangible BV per share (MRQ) $18.58
Cash per share (MRQ) $1.64

New "joint venture deal w/France's Total E&P USA, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Total S.A. has put a concrete $$$ number on the value of Chesapeake's upstream Barnett Shale assets ... that "valuation number" approximating 50% of CHK's market capitalization ... all by itself. WOW! The deal takes stress off CHK's balance sheet with $800 million up front and by funding 60% of CHK's drilling costs in the Barnett Shale thru 2012 ... with possible additional JV's with Total.

The CHK short positiion ( insert smiley face here ) ... The shorts, based on the pending end of the heating season, have increased their short position by about 2.5 million shares.

Duh! ( insert "duh" smiley face here )

The "shorts" apparently aren't paying attention to CHK news announcements ( Hint = Adequate WARNING ).... Oh, like the CEO's expectation for one or two MORE joint ventures ... perhaps to be announced in the next few weeks ... and neglect to consider the CASH influx to CHK and its shareholders ... when the jv's are "inked" as agreed and completed. Can you PICTURE the shorts scrambling to buy back "borrowed" shares ... like throwing gasoline on a fire ...

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month): 14,742,900
Average Volume (10 day): 24,413,700
Shares Outstanding: 651.86M
Float: 644.50M
% Held by Insiders: 0.47%
% Held by Institutions: 73.60%
Shares Short (as of 26-Feb-10): 30.88M
Short Ratio (as of 26-Feb-10): 2.5
Short % of Float (as of 26-Feb-10): 5.80%
Shares Short (prior month): 28.39M

... resistance in tn the S&P500 seems to be 1170 -1172 area ...

Well. since the well blowout in the gulf ... gov''t is now leaning toward nat gas ... and I think you could begin to see a push to get big rig trucking using nat gas ... and moreof our "larger" vehicles ... it makes great sense as a transition fuel and great sense as a way to lower the USA trade deficit ...

Yep ... " sovereign " wealth funds like CHK ...

Chk is using the money to pay down debt which will (1) reduce interest expense, and (2) increase earnings ... and I agree with them and CHK's CEO .. CHK' s market cap of around 14.2 B is way too low ... should be 56 to 57 Billion ... so CHK is on sale BIG TIME due to nat gas pricing ...

XOM is buying XTO now ... because XTO is on sale -- quite a deal for the assets

... very few stocks left from the " 2008 global market meltdown " that have that VALUE ...

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Potential to Pop: 53.5%
Mean Price Target: $32.29
Closing Price (5/21): $21.03

Number of Analysts: 25
High Estimate: $49
Low Estimate: $--

I listened to the Prez's speech ... clearly, and finally, gets the point that the easy crude has been found, there's clearly a lot more in deeper, harder to get at, more expensive RISKY locations ... and that's where i believe nat gas, as a transition fuel to the USA's green energy future, is the hands down " here and NOW !!!"

My fav in the group is Chesapeake Energy Corp ( CHK:NYSE )
$25.36 +$0.74 + 3.01% Volume 12,586,992

Chart checkup ( 10 day / 15 minute - 6/2 to 6/15/2010 )

Moving Average Price Compare ( Bullish )
Yesterday, CHK closed above its 20 minute moving average. This is generally considered to be an indication of a bullish trend.

Moving Average Price Compare ( Bullish )
Yesterday, CHK closed above its 5 minute moving average. This is generally considered to be an indication of a bullish trend.

Moving Average Price Compare ( Bullish )
Yesterday, CHK closed above its 13 minute moving average. This is generally considered to be an indication of a bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands ( Bullish )
CHK has been relatively stable recently. This is evidenced by the width of its Bollinger Bands which are tighter than normal. Additionally, CHK is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

Stochastics ( Bearish )
The Stochastic Oscillator is registering a bearish signal as the %K is below the %D. However, CHK is neither overbought nor oversold.

On Balance Volume ( Bullish )
The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) shows that longer term selling pressure has given way to near term accumulation.

Price Channel ( Neutral )
CHK has been relatively stable recently. This is evidenced by the width of its price channel which is tighter than is normal due to the low volatility. Additionally, CHK is trading within its price channel. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the price action over the last 5 minute period.

Company specific issue: "Seasonality." CHK is "tied" to the price of crude, nat gas,as well as supply and "DEMAND"! Unfortunately, as the days "sunlight" time span lengthen, the days get warmer, and demand for heating fuel drops off until demand for air conditioning kicks in and forces electric utilities to peak output.