Hi Mack,

You aren't the "buy the dip" type are ya? Keep that shampoo on a tight leash. Come next week we might be lower than SPX 950. Ouch. I think P3 has begun.

Eric

Howdy, Eric!

You aren't the "buy the dip" type are ya?

As long as the S&P 500's long-term uptrend is intact, I am indeed buying the dips and selling the rips.

Come next week we might be lower than SPX 950.

If the U.S. dollar significantly strengthens versus the eurodollar in the wake of the Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2009 (Advance) report tomorrow (http://tinyurl.com/2sya8o), then I believe SPX could visit the 950 level. Otherwise, I think it would be highly unlikely.

Ouch. I think P3 has begun.

Fortunately or unfortunately, P3 has no meaning to me.

Good luck!

MackTheKnife

Hi Mack!

How is the trend still intact? I thought this move down broke the trendline set from March?

Don't get faked out by those "Gov't adjusted" GDP numbers. It's just a ploy to suck in the poor old Mom and Pop investors. I'm still callin for SPX 950 or lower next week!

Have a great Halloween Weekend!
Eric

Howdy, Eric!

How is the trend still intact? I thought this move down broke the trendline set from March?

On my SPX three-year weekly chart, the support trendline is currently in the area of 970.00.

Don't get faked out by those "Gov't adjusted" GDP numbers.

As indicated in my U.S. Economy and Equity Market blog post (http://tinyurl.com/msvsvv), I believed in May there was a high probability its past contraction would end and its present expansion would begin in the second half of this year. Moreover, I thought then this change could occur as soon as August. Accordingly, I consider my conclusions supported by the release yesterday of the Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2009 (Advance Estimate) (http://tinyurl.com/2d5zdv).

I'm still callin for SPX 950 or lower next week!

If the U.S. dollar significantly strengthens versus the eurodollar in the wake of the GDP report, then I believe SPX could visit the 950 level. Otherwise, I think it would be highly unlikely.

Have a great Halloween Weekend!

Ditto! And good luck!

MackTheKnife

With respect to the Standard & Poor's 500's (SPX's) current oscillation, I got two words for anyone who believes it is likely to soon blast through 1,115.97, which represents a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 898.36 points it lost between Oct 9, 2007, and Mar 6, 2009: Dream On . . .

Mack,

Tend to agree with you at this level. Don't know what I should about Fibonacci numbers, but I do know that the stock market has reflected the inverse of the dollar lately. And in reference to a previous discussion, the major resistance to a lower dollar was just about reached today. You stated a time frame for that resistance being broken. I'm thinking you're right, which means it won't be broken right now. I may short the market if I I get a decent opportunity tomorrow. However, I expect the market to open up lower, we'll see.

Steve

Howdy, Steve!

Don't know what I should about Fibonacci numbers

Eh. If Fibs are proven to have any prognostic value in the equity market, then I personally would attribute the phenomenon to self-fulfilling prophecy more than anything else. In the current case of the S&P 500, however, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is close to the midpoint of the area between 1,099.23 and 1,133.50 where I anticipate a significant amount of resistance (http://tinyurl.com/ygb6k8e). Accordingly, I expect it will be tough for SPX to chew through this range during its current oscillation. (Of course, it might do so the next time around.)

but I do know that the stock market has reflected the inverse of the dollar lately.

Indeed. The condition of the U.S. dollar is prominent among the nonproprietary indicators I monitor every trading day.

I may short the market if I I get a decent opportunity tomorrow.

Great minds think alike. Based on my interpretation of the relevant data, I entered the first leg of a projected four-legged market-short options trade yesterday. Obviously, I will be looking to add to this position on any spike(s) in the S&P 500 this options-expiration week.

Good luck!

MackTheKnife

"I may short the market if I get a decent opportunity tomorrow' ??

What's the decent opportunity? If the market is down 100 points, will you short it then..or.. will you short it if it's up 45? or? What's decent?

Howdy, MightyMo!

What's the decent opportunity?

Obviously, I cannot speak for Steve. However, I note the following aspects of my own plans:

-- Yesterday (Tuesday, Nov 17), I was looking for the S&P 500 to spike about 9.61 points -- to about 1,118.91 from 1,109.30 -- before entering the second leg of my projected four-legged market-short options trade, which I believe would have constituted a decent opportunity for me. Alas, there was no such spike.

-- Today, I am looking for SPX to spike about 9.41 points -- to about 1,119.73 from 1,110.32 -- before entering the second leg of my projected four-legged market-short options trade, which I think would constitute a decent opportunity for me.

Good luck!

MackTheKnife

As of yesterday's close ... less than 42% of NYSE listed stocks had rising 20 SMAs.

Looks like a good call Mack.

Howdy, TB!

Looks like a good call Mack.

Thanks for the kind words! Of course, I would swap them for an SPX spike between now and Friday at 1500 ET, so I can add the second leg of my projected four-legged market-short options trade . . .

Good luck!

MackTheKnife

Mo,

I'm basically in agreement with Mack, though he's much more proficient with the details. 10-15 point spike on S & P is a decent opportunity.

I generally think your predictions are right for the next year or so, just not right here for the next week or two.

Steve