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S&P 500: 1,340.35 Change: -0.84%
leadon
P&P Score: 4.41 | Points: -27.64 | Accuracy: 39.62 | Average Pick Score: -0.37   Annual Return: N/A  
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Commentary
BUY: CF IND HLDGS INC (CF) Rating: 2
Start Price: $86.23
Points: +25.44
Created: 09/29/2009
Agriculture isn't going away - fertilizer will pick back up, and they have good franchise, no debt, and could also be bought for premium.

1 Comment(s):

Author leadon     Date 2010-11-04 20:18:35
They say sales more than doubled with the Terra addition - hey, that's great. Yet, the
reported earnings missed the estimates by over 50% - and this while Zack's today
reported a bunch of analysts and brokerages were making really large earnings estimate
increases on CF? Even the play, er, adjusted earnings missed estimates by a very
wide margin.
And yet industry wide we're told pricing and tonnage sold began to pick up mid year and demand
and pricing power are strong?
A lot of people felt CF grossly overpaid for Terra - I don't know - but could that be part of this?
They also run TNH now through the Terra addition. While TNH results seemed some better,
if sales volume and pricing were really strengthening, then why is the 3rd quarter's distribution
over a dollar less than TNH's 2nd quarter distribution? Hummmm????
Perhaps I misread the signs - I sure hope not to mislead anyone else as this is just my
musing. But when I can't understand something, its time for me to head to the house - thankfully,
here, with a profit.
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