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S&P 500: 1,317.45 Change: +0.03%
Fliujniligui
P&P Score: 4.58 | Points: -37.16 | Accuracy: 54.76 | Average Pick Score: 8.56   Annual Return: N/A  
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BUY: NATL BK GREECE ADS (NBG) Rating: 3
Start Price: $16.55
Points: -148.68
Created: 04/06/2009
This bank has 8,590.68 billion euros of equity and assets of about 100 billion euros. It has a trading portfolio loaded with criticized but still performing and investment (A-) Greek government bonds, to the extent of 13 billions euros. As a bank, it did only lend to customers and avoided totally collateralization and is not in a market with extra-inflated asset bubble (problem of Ireland). It is profitable, very well capitalized and it manage to expand in key emerging Europe countries and to be profitable in doing so. This is a feat.

Right now, its market cap is 8.44 billion $ while its equity is similar number in Euros. This is a bargain.

The only problem with it is that Greece is pi$$ed by medias about its possibility of going bankrupt. It has debt to GDP of about 105 % and deficit to GDP around 4%. Those numbers are great compared to Canada's number in 1991-1995, and look where Canada is now. Such situation is not dangerous for its bankruptcy risks, it is virtuous for the incentive it gives to government to rationalize, cut in the inefficiencies and strengthen long term prospect for the country.

Should Greek government take measures to clean up the balance sheet and the running of the state, and it will, NBG won't suffer from Greece Government bond default. And the rest of the assets and capital ratios are clean and allow to take the normal loan loss provisions associated with any adverse economic environment.

I am also loading up AIB and DB with the same vision.

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