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Amex has a number of things against it. Not the least of which is it lends it's own money. Defaults are up beyond expectations for personal accounts. Corporate/small business accounts are starting to follow.
Additionally Amex tends to cater to a segment of the population that is only just now starting to be hit hard with layoffs and financial stress. As this population burns through savings, Amex will experience higher late pays and defaults. It's going to take 3-6 months for this to all work it's way through the system.
To further make the case Amex is heavily reliant on travel, particuarly corporate travel that is significantly down, and will become tighter as it's becomming apparent a quick recovery isn't likely this year.
Add to all of this that Axp's new designation as a bank when they signed up for bailout funds, will drive significant internal costs as the company retools internal infrastructure to become compliant with banking regulations it was not subject too previously.