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S&P 500: 1,340.35 Change: -0.84%
morganuci
P&P Score: 99.29 | Points: 138.51 | Accuracy: 46.99 | Average Pick Score: 1.18   Annual Return: N/A  
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Commentary
BUY: AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES INC. (AFSI) Rating: 4
Start Price: $8.13
Points: +151.52
Created: 02/20/2009
In their last 8 quarters, they've never had < 15% earnings surprise. Management predicts 10% growth in revenue for 2009, and that shareholder equity will grow faster than earnings because the prices on their bond portfolio will rebound from unrealized losses in 2008. They also state that they are prepared to do acquisitions which could allow them to scoop up competitors at a bargain.

Overall, at the current $8/share, this company is selling at a very low P/E, especially compared to its expected growth rate, and low price/book as well, with expectation of higher growth in the book value in 2009. Return on equity is a very high 33%. Insider and 5% owners own 59% of shares outstanding, and mutual funds another 38%. Gross premiums written exceeded $1B for the first time in 2008. For 4Q2008, gross premiums written were up 19% over 4Q2007, with operating earnings up 26% over the same periods. The combined ratio is holding pretty steady around 77%.

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