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S&P 500: 1,340.35 Change: -0.84%
Fliujniligui
P&P Score: 2.54 | Points: -69.40 | Accuracy: 54.76 | Average Pick Score: 10.40   Annual Return: N/A  
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Commentary
BUY: GOV BK IRELAND ADS (IRE) Rating: 2
Start Price: $5.30
Points: -117.37
Created: 12/19/2008
This thing is not too bad at its current price and my call is for a technical rebound, not a fundamentally driven long term buy and hold. This bank is more in trouble than Allied Irish Banks and for long term buyer I would favor AIB for 2 reasons. It is less talken of in media since it is less troubled and media are currently focusing and exagerating negative data. Second reason is that they have many options available beside government money should they have to raise capital and this will offset a part of the dilutive effect of such capital raising. IRE has not these options available and it also incurred significant loss in subprime stuff exposure, which AIB mostly evaded.

3 Comment(s):

Author Fliujniligui     Date 2009-09-11 22:35:12
I was wrong, AIB is more troubled than IRE. Anyways both are good and I like the points they gave me.
Author Fliujniligui     Date 2009-12-01 22:42:30
Now only IRE is worth buying and holding. AIB mess was hidden but gradually came out and now it is to the extent that the recapitalization dilutive wipeout makes this investment speculative again. Sell AIB, buy IRE or other stuff.
Author Fliujniligui     Date 2011-05-23 13:05:35
I failed to update my portfolio here. IRE represents 4 shares in Europe. 4 x 0.2 Euros is not 1.78$ but nearer to half of this. There is a high premium and an outstanding recapitalization need. Soros reflexivity is at work here and risk is on the downside. Whatever is left is to be spared from total wipeout.
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