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Vet67to82
Vet67to82
P&P Score: 0.31   Points: -608.47   Accuracy: 68.73%   Average Pick Score: -4.50   Annual Return: 16.23% (40.60% since 11/25/09)  

Vet67to82's Blog : Trading Games 2012 - week 4

Date January 30, 2012  Edited: January 30, 2012    Comments Comments (6)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (41)   
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 MarketWatch started a Fantasy Earnings Trader game on 1/9/2012.  You get weekly picks to choose to go long or short.  What you select for Monday's open  ... you're stuck with until Friday's close.  Week 4 gives you $160,000 to spend on 30 different stocks whether you go long, or short, or any combination thereof. 


The picks for week 4 were:  AET, AFL, ALGT, AMZN, AOL, ASCA, BAH, BEAM, CME, CMG, EA, ETR, GMCR, HOT, MA, MAT, NOC, PCL, PFE, R, RCII, RGA, SLE, TSCO, TSN, TUP, TYC, UPS, X, YUM


  Based on spreadsheet fundamental analysis and chart analysis of the global markets, the USA markets, sectors, industries, and finally the companies, this is how the above companies panned out for this week:


 ( 1)  Stock is a Strong Buy: CMG, RGA,


       ( 1a)  (1/20/2012):  X,      


       ( 1b)  (1/27/2012):  CMG, RGA,


 ( 2)  Stock is a Buy. AFL, ASCA, CMG, GMCR, HOT, PCL, R, TSCO, TUP, TYC, UPS, X, YUM


 ( 3) HOLD            


      ( 3a) Hold If long:  AET, AOL , PFE, RCII, SLE, TYC,


       ( 3b) Hold if already short:   AMZN,


 ( 4) Sells


       ( 4a) If you are long, close position or watch stock closely:  ALGT, EA, ETR, MA, MAT, TSN,


 ( 5) Stock is Not a Buy Candidate. ALGT, AMZN, AMZN, CME


 ( 6)  Stock is Not a Short Sell Candidate.: AET, ALGT,  AMZN, AOL, CME, EA, ETR, MAT, PFE, R, RCII, SLE,  TYC,


 ( 7)  Stock is a Short Sale Candidate:  MA, TSN


 ( 8)   Avoid the stock.  ALGT, ETR, MAT,  TSN, 


 ( 9)  Stock broke Double Top (Bullish) Point & Figure Chart Formation Last Week                  


       01/20/2012:  AFL,  AMZN, CMG, X,


 (10)  Stock broke Double Bottom (Bearish) Point & Figure Chart Formation Last Week


           01/20/2012:  MA


 Based on earnings alone, the below listed 12 companies (+/- 0.25 %) from the above 30 companies factored to a positive  "Upside Surprise"  potential:   


ASCA .....  23.5,  X  ..........     9.8,  AET ..........  6.1, R  .........     4.1, TSCO .,,,.... 2.2,  PFE  ..,,,,..  2.2,  HOT ..,,,,.,.  1.8,  YUM ..,,,,,..  1.4,  RCII  ........,, 1.2,  EA  .........   1.2,  CMG ........  1.1, NOC ........   0.6


  See also:


    ( 1) Trading Games 2012


http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3740638/Trading-Games-2012/


  So let's see how this week plays out ...


 

Tags : AET   AFL   ALGT   AMZN   AOL   ASCA   BAH   BEAM   CME   CMG   EA   ETR   GMCR   HOT   MA   MAT   NOC   PCL   PFE   R   RCII   RGA   SLE   TSCO   TSN   TUP   TYC   UPS   X   YUM  

6 Comment(s):

Author Vet67to82     Date January 30, 2012 13:40 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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As you can see in the above post, I really DO analyse every side for "trade" and "invest" as well as the short side ... and especially the "avoid" side. That gives me the reward/risk ratio. If a stock has the potential to go up $4 or more as opposed to going down $1 or less, that is a buy that rewards nearly every time. If we are looking to sell, or short, then a stock that demonstrates the potential to decline $4 or more vs going up $1 or more also can reward most of the time.

If I am still interested in a particular stock, as a "future buy", the short and avoid analysis forces me to go back to the annual reports, the quarterly reports, news, etc to check cash balances, or inventory buildups, etc. There are many spots in an annual report that spreadsheet analysis can "flag" for greater understanding, or " uh, oh, look out ... "
Author Vet67to82     Date January 30, 2012 13:46 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Oh, yeah. here are my picks for week 4.

RGA 1/29/12 11:09p 1/30/12 9:52a Buy 2019 $55.45 -- (70%)
ASCA 1/29/12 11:09p 1/30/12 9:52a Buy 810 $19.74 -- (10%)
X 1/29/12 11:09p 1/30/12 9:53a Buy 548 $29.18 --------- (10%)
EA 1/29/12 11:09p 1/30/12 9:53a Buy 266 $18.00
AET 1/29/12 11:09p 1/30/12 9:51a Buy 148 $43.18
AFL 1/29/12 11:09p 1/30/12 9:51a Buy 98 $48.50

As you can see, in today's down market ... I am ahead with RGA.

Clearly, others spent their weekend on homework. (Smiling)

Author JoeJustJoe     Date January 30, 2012 14:56 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I'd certainly make TSCO an outright chort going into errrnuns and put 40K on that bet. All tops are o-fish-ally confirmt on TSCO. On CMG I would wait fo the reaction on errrrnuns. That "should" take the pig thru 370.35. I would load up another 40K on that bet "after" errrnuns unless 370.35 gits taken out befo the errrnuns news. The windup on CMG? I'd bet 40K ov my allowable 160K on CMG chort as soon as 370.35 goes bye bye either befo er afta errrrnuns. *-) Les see how this heeeya werks out. Keep me posted on my 2 picks thur, Vetski. :-) 3J
Author JohntheWizard     Date February 2, 2012 02:18  Edited: February 2, 2012 by JohntheWizard Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Vet,
If you would have pulled a standard trick like taking each week the 30 S&P500 stocks with the lowest share prices, you would have made over 10% during the past 4 weeks. Even If you just had purchased these thirty stocks on Friday, Dec 30 or Tuesday, January 3 as a buy and hold until today, you would have made over 10%. Over the past 12 years, these 30 stocks with the lowest share prices out of the current S&P500 compounded over 100%/year when you would have monthlyly rebalanced them, equally weighted. Only 3 out of 30 per month needed to be changed, and your maximum drawdown would have been half of the annually compounding gains. It is the most simple trading system I know.
Good gaming,
John
Author JoeJustJoe     Date February 2, 2012 09:24 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Soooo, Vet, "looks like" me CMG call werked out eggZack'sly as "expected" :-) TSCO now needs ta trade thru 82.50 but it ainn nuphin I can't take keer ov by tamarrah...sssspecially since tamarrah's a Fri :-) 3J
Author JoeJustJoe     Date February 3, 2012 13:34 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Howdy, Vetski, not sho which one ov yer spews I mentioned GMXR as my next play in but joo kin WOW me now. :o Not sho ifn I kin even git a "retest" on thatn...but ov course I'll try. Gonna take keer ov TSCO taday too I'm wreckin...but thatn "might" hasta wait till Mon. :-) BTW, I gots ZSL back up on me open list...jist thunk I'd let ya "know" *-) 3J
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