Vet67to82's Blog : Gold in 2012

More info in previous blogs;

(1) Kinross Gold (KGC) 2012 January 1, 2012

http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3735971/Kinross-Gold-KGC--2012/

(2) Closing my SELL on ZSL May 10, 2011 Edited: May 10, 2011

http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3568645/Closing-my-SELL-on-ZSL/

more to follow

Uhhhm, Vetski, I gots sum real bad news fer ya. Remember 2008? ...remember how when the market wuz down 25% gold n goldpig stocks were down 25%? Well, this time the market will be down 30% ann da goldies will be down 70%. Watch...I'll show ya. *-) 3J

Thanks for the comment Joe. I remember 2008 really well, unfortunately. I also recall that GOLD (Chemical symbol AU) bottomed out in October of 2008. Gold has risen substantially since, yet, I have also noticed that the miners underperformed gold. Hmmm! Obviously, investors were not willing to buy the miners because they were expecting the bottom to fall out under gold and take the miners down with it.
( 1) It's now 2012 ... the expected gold plunge hasn't occurred. AND, because China, the GOVERNMENT is buying GOLD, backed up by 1.4 BILLION of its citizens BUYING gold, it is DIFFERENT this time. Peer pressure can be a tremendous tool, in China, it is being used with brilliant expectations that the Chinese people will feel wealthier and cut the government some slack in the areas where it's doing a really poor to misirable job. .
( 2) I like Kinross (KGC) best, followed, in no special order by: Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcrop. (GG), Newmont (NEM), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Yamana Gold (AUY) and Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM).
( 3) My brokers always pay attention to what I am buying, in the real world with real dollars and KNOWING that I am doing my own homework, reading the reports, running the spreadsheets, running the charts, checking the news, etc. ... they ask questions. Usually, and I hope, after they've verified what I am saying, and writing, I have SEEN those companies take off.

From REQUIRED SEC filings:

"On Tuesday, the world's largest and most prominent asset manager, Blackrock Inc. (BLK), with more than $3.3 trillion in assets under management filed SEC Form SC 13G/A indicating that it held 149.2 million or 13.1% of outstanding KGC shares, an increase of 11.4 million shares from the 137.8 million shares that it held at the end of Q3. Blackrock, which was already the largest institutional holder of KGC at the end of Q3, ranks well ahead now of second place Van Eck Associates that held 46.8 million shares at the time of its Q3 filing. KGC trades at a discount 10 forward P/E compared to the 11.2 average for the gold mining group, while earnings are projected to increase from 57c in 2010 to $1.28 in 2012, at an annualized growth rate of 49.9%."

Grinning ... some else doing their HOMEWORK!

Silver looks ready to break to the upside with what looks like the formation of a reverse head and shoulders bottom.

It's seems way too many people are still bullish on gold. An analyst was on CNBC last week predicting $5,000 oz!!! These types of predictions smell like a market top.

COMMODITIES . 1/17/2012 approximately 11:22 AM EST

NAME LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
Gold 1,659.20 +28.40 +1.74%
Silver 30.36 +0.84 +2.84%
Light Sweet Crude Oil 99.95 +1.07 +1.08%

Thanks for the comment Gordon_G.

When I run my analyses, I run BOTH the Bull side AND the Bear side statistics. When I post observations I try to include BOTH, but, sometimes there isn't anything statistically significant to the flipside statistics. You are correct in observing that GOLD at $5000 per troy oz is an unrealistic assessment ... but even that should get the qualifier: "AT THIS TIME."

Think about it. It's the gold locked in the Ft. Knox's of the world, the ETF's and the the average joe and jane with their wedding bands, neck chains, ... rings and bling.

( 1) There are about 7 billion people on the planet, if everyone wants 1 troy ounce of gold ... how many people have NONE? What price would the people who have none be willing to pay?

( 2) Now when the global population get to the projected 10 billion ... if everyone wants 1 troy ounce of gold ... how many people have NONE? What price would the people who have none be willing to pay?

That's the "What if?" math.