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Vet67to82
Vet67to82
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Vet67to82's Blog : Looking ahead, 10/11/2010 -10/15/2010

Date October 9, 2010    Comments Comments (16)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (105)   
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First 10/15/2010 is options expiration Friday. That alone, makes Monday through Thursday's market and indices actions worth paying attention to, whether or not you trade options.

We’re above 11,000 for the first time since the "Fat Finger" May 6th market mini-meltdown, and the highly questionable part is we seem to be applauding bad news that adds fuel to the fire under the FED to commence the next round of quantitative easing.

News to watch for:
- weekly jobless claims data on Thursday
- the consumer-price index for September on Friday
- M&T Bank's (MTB) months long merger discussions with Banco Santander (STD) effectively ended this week when Allied Irish Bank (AIB), which holds a $2.2 billion stake in the Buffalo-based regional bank, said it was undergoing a public offering to sell its M&T shares.

In the financial sector this week, American Express (AXP) shares took a nosedive early on in the week after the Department of Justice slapped an antitrust lawsuit on the card network at the same time that Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) settled their DoJ lawsuits. Here, I am of the opinion that the DoJ may very well be wrong, and AXP in the right. The market's overreaction to the sell side presents a nifty buying oportunity.

Tags : MTB   STD   AIB   AXP   MA   CSCO   COMP   DJIA   SPX   SPY   FAS   FAZ   DIA   A   AA   ALL   BA   BAC   C   CAT   CHK   CVS   CVX   DD   DIS   GE   HD   HES   HPQ   IBM   INTC   JCP   JNJ   JPM   KFT   KO   MCD   MMM   MRK   MSFT   PFE   PG   T   TRV   UTX   VZ   WMT   XOM   ING   GLD   SLV   PAAS   UXG   CUR   DHT   DRYS   EGLE  

16 Comment(s):

Author Vet67to82     Date October 9, 2010 23:28 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Expectations for Q3 earnings reports?

Arguably, the economy continues to plod forward and corporations are enjoying nice gains in productivity that equate into above-average earnings growth. The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for the third quarter is 24%. Expectations are for the financial, and industrial, sectors to top the highest growth rates for the Q3 quarter.

The currency debacle is the primary current daily market driving force, if CEOs and CFOs are offering guidance that is better, not just par, or worse, then earnings may take center stage away from the currency issues.

Author Vet67to82     Date October 9, 2010 23:28 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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companies reporting in the days ahead, with:

-- on Tuesday
- railway CSX Corp.* (CSX 57.49, +0.80, +1.41%),
- Fastenal Co.* (FAST 54.52, +0.83, +1.55%),
- Intel (INTC 19.52, +0.12, +0.62%)

-- on Wednesday
- Host Hotels & Resorts Inc.* (HST 15.60, +0.33, +2.16%)
- Apollo Group (APOL 50.12, +0.27, +0.54%)
- J.P. Morgan (JPM 39.31, -0.21, -0.53%)

-- on Thursday
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc.* (AMD 7.05, +0.18, +2.62%) ,
- WW Grainger Inc. * (GWW 123.00, +1.01, +0.83%)
- Safeway Inc.* (SWY 21.19, -0.05, -0.24%)
- Google Inc. (GOOG 536.35, +6.34, +1.20%)

-- while Friday’s schedule includes
- First Horizon National Corp.* (FHN 11.49, -0.14, -1.20%)
- Mattel Inc.* (MAT 23.95, +0.29, +1.23%)
- GE (GE 17.12, +0.07, +0.41%)

*S&P 500 companies

Citigroup (C_) reports third-quarter earnings on October 18th,
Bank of America on October 19 and
Wells Fargo (WFC_) on October 20th.
Author Vet67to82     Date October 9, 2010 23:36 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Even considering the "Fat Finger" May 6th market mini-meltdown ... apparently caused by a mathematically challenged "algorithm" that never should have seen the light of day ... and representing an issue yet to be addressed ...

Year to date change from 12/31/2009 --
DJIA .................... Open ... Hi ............... Lo .......... Close
2010 ytd . ... .. 400.00 ... 477.17 ... 506.18 ... 578.48
2010 ytd% ... 3.792% ... 4.521% ... 4.856% ... 5.547%
Author Vet67to82     Date October 9, 2010 23:38 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Playing the "Game" Differently
-- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3414567/Playing-the-Game-Differently/


Monthly Heads up and Review

July 2010 in Review ( September 18, 2010 )
-- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3409685/July-2010-in-Review/

August 2010 MyCall for the Close ( July 26, 2010 )
-- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3376585

September in Review ( September 1, 2010 )
-- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3399715

October in Review ( September 16, 2010 )
-- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3408233
Author Vet67to82     Date October 9, 2010 23:48 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Natural Gas Stocks Building Rapidly - Analyst Blog

-- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Zacks_Analysts/3422247
Author Vet67to82     Date October 10, 2010 00:11 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Apple Inc (AAPL)

Estimated Valuations Update:

Bull $440.00
Mid $346.00
Bear $210.00

Author Vet67to82     Date October 10, 2010 00:25 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Mr Warren Buffet likes railroads ...

Union Pacific (UNP) $84.86

Estimated Valuations Update:

Bull $100.00
Mid $92.00
Bear $71.00

Author Vet67to82     Date October 10, 2010 00:25 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Bank of America (BAC) $13.18

Estimated Valuations Update:

Bull $30.00
Mid $25.00
Bear $10.00

Author Vet67to82     Date October 10, 2010 00:28 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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If you think the economy is still hitting the consumer in the wallet and pocketbook:

Dollar General Corp (DG) $30.00

Estimated Valuations Update:

Bull $43..00
Mid $35.00
Bear $22.00

Author MightyMo     Date October 10, 2010 21:14 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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My blog on July 28, 2010 titled 'market trends' states that the DOW will hit 1100 and what will happen next. I show two charts in that blog.
Author Vet67to82     Date October 11, 2010 01:08 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Thanks for your reply, MightyMo.

I previously recommended your blogs and replied as well. Did you note my detailed reply in conjunction with your charts, and how the markets played out to the posted numbers?

MightyMo's Blog : Market trend
-- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/MightyMo/3377771


Author Vet67to82     Date October 11, 2010 01:23 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Month to date --
S&P 500 .................... Open Hi Lo Close
Oct mtd 12.39 10.57 19.5 23.95
Oct % mtd 1.08% 0.91% 1.72% 2.10%

DJIA .................... Open Hi Lo Close
Oct mtd 132.37 49.65 147.32 160.53
Oct % mtd 1.222% 0.453% 1.371% 1.488%

FAS .................... Open Hi Lo Close
Oct mtd 0.74 0.30 0.94 1.24
Oct % mtd 3.407% 1.340% 4.419% 5.811%

Author Vet67to82     Date October 11, 2010 01:28 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Year to date --
DJIA .................... Open Hi Lo Close
2010 ytd 400.00 477.17 506.18 578.48
2010 ytd% 3.792% 4.521% 4.856% 5.547%

S&P 500 .................... Open Hi Lo Close
2010 ytd 31.76 40.09 40.77 50.05
2010 ytd% 2.8191% 3.5552% 3.6571% 4.4884%

FAS .................... Open Hi Lo Close
2010 ytd (2.66) (2.63) (2.46) (2.13)
2010 ytd -10.589% -10.387% -9.972% -8.620%

Author Vet67to82     Date October 11, 2010 13:45  Edited: October 11, 2010 by Vet67to82 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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So why are corporate profits going higher?

Three main reasons.
( 1) Major cost cutting.mostly from the staffing side of the equation, therein, each dollar in revenue produces more profit. Buyouts, and mergers, are only feeding that side of the equation.
( 2) Modestly improving US economy IS feeding revenue a bit. Combine this with item1 above and it creates attractive quarter over quarter (qoq), and year over year (yoy) comparisons in
revenue, profit, and earnings growth.
( 3) About half of US corporate profits these days come from overseas. Europe govts, and financials may be weak, but the EU consumer is STILL in the game, along with growth in China, India, Brazil etc which more than makes up for that shortfall.

Even here in the USA, the consumer is STILL buying from CASH, which explains the 3.3 billion drop in credit, despite the near ZERO interest rates. This is why corporate profits and the rising stock market seem to be disconnected from the realities in our own backyards.

PLUS, the stock market has generally done much better in the second half of a president’s four-year term. Looking back 1942 to the present day, the 200 days after a midterm election have produced “a remarkably consistent uptrend,” regardless of who wins. In all 17 instances, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index had gains averaging more than 18 percent.

Combine the above with stock market alternatives like cash and bonds being downright unattractive means good odds for global and USA markets to move higher. The positives for the markets during earnings season, if earnings stay on track, out weigh the negatives for the economy, we should be retracing to the old highs of DJIA 11,300 fairly soon.

Author Vet67to82     Date October 17, 2010 01:01 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Markets for the week 10/15/2010 ...10/8/2010 % chg. YTD chg.
Dow industrials .........11,062.78 ... 11,006.48 ... 0.5% ..... 6.1%
S&P 500 ...................... 1,176.19 .... 1,165.15 ... 0.9% .... 5.5%
Nasdaq ...................... 2,468.77 .... 2,401.91 ... 2.8% ... 8.8%
Russell 2000 ................. 703.16 ........ 693.82 ... 1.3% .. 12.4%

Crude oil ....................... $81.25 ........ $82.66 -1.7% 2.4% (per barrel)

U.S. Dollar Index ............ 77.27 ........... 77.56 ... -0.4% ... -1.2%

10-yr. Treasury ................ 2.58% .......... 2.38% .... 8.2% ... -33.0%

Gold ...........................$1,372.00 .... $1,345.30 ..... 2.0% .... 25.2% (per troy ounce)
Author Vet67to82     Date October 30, 2010 16:52 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Friday, 10/15/2010 OurCall for the Close
- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3426216/Friday-10152010-OurCall-for-the-Close/

Thursday, 10/14/2010 OurCall for the Close
- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3425400

Wednesday, 10/13/2010 OurCall for the Close
- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3424585

Tuesday, 10/12/2010 OurCall for the Close
- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3423815/Tuesday-10122010-OurCall-for-the-Close/

Monday, 10/11/2010 OurCall for the Close
- http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/Vet67to82/3422973/Monday-10112010-OurCall-for-the-Close/

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