Username Password
S&P 500: 1,317.11 Change: -0.21%
Vet67to82
P&P Score: 0.31   Points: -608.47   Accuracy: 68.73%   Average Pick Score: -4.50   Annual Return: 16.23% (40.60% since 11/25/09)  

Vet67to82's Blog : Playing the "Game" Differently

Date September 27, 2010  Edited: September 27, 2010    Comments Comments (9)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (105)   
Bookmark and Share
Abuse this post  Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Share ThisShare This
Free Options Trader Guide
I have read many thought provoking blogs on boosting accuracy and suggestions on closing picks to gain points, as well as concerns about "gaming" the system.

I am playing the ZACKS game differently in identifying stocks with an "Estimated Target" of +20%, or more, and striving to attain "Stock Gains" of at least 5% or better. If you view my "Analyses" you will see that I am posting the "potential reward part" but not yet posting the "potential risk" part.

I use these two numbers to obtain the Reward/Risk Ratio (RRR). If a stock has a potential to go up $4.00, and down $1.00, then the RRR is equal to 4 and thoughout the years, +4 or higher, has resulted in a nice return in the real world's markets.

I assess for the fundamentals, followed by charting, and occasionally pre-screening as well as post-screening. I use fundamentals of my own choosing to arrive at calculations for both Reward (upside potential) and Risk (drop potential).

In my comments below, I will use my Open picks, as well as my Closed picks to illustrate the benefits of paying closer attention to the RRR and Stock Gain, to put us on the path to profits, over time, EVERY time.

Though this approach may never put me at the top of the leader board, it does put me at the top in my market accounts, where it counts ... and there is NO gaming the system there.

I do hope this helps. Comments are welcome.
Tags : RRR   CSCO   COMP   DJIA   SPX   SPY   FAS   FAZ   DIA   A   AA   ALL   AXP   BA   BAC   C   CAT   CHK   CVS   CVX   DD   DIS   GE   HD   HES   HPQ   IBM   INTC   JCP   JNJ   JPM   KFT   KO   MCD   MMM   MRK   MSFT   PFE   PG   T   TRV   UTX   VZ   WMT   XOM   ING   GLD   SLV   PAAS   UXG  

9 Comment(s):

Author Vet67to82     Date September 27, 2010 13:06 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Looking at my 130 Closed picks ....

-- 10 were SELL picks ( 1 SELL by "fat finger" mistake )

... of the 10 SELL recommendations, 9 went down as predicted and 6 of the 9 declined MORE than 5%, meeting 67% of MY personal goal.

-- 120 were BUY picks

... of the 120 BUY picks, I closed 51 with a "Stock Gain" of +10%
... of the 120 BUY picks, I closed 97 with a "Stock Gain" of +5%
... of the 120 BUY picks, I closed 113 with a positive stock gain



Author Vet67to82     Date September 27, 2010 13:40 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
I currently have 83 Open picks ( all BUYs ) and 1 Pending pick ( which is a SELL opinion)
Author Teledog     Date September 27, 2010 19:38 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
I was unaware of any gaming but haven't been on very long. I look at P&P as a way to keep a "paper trading" history of watched tickers. In the end I care that I learn from my actions and have a recorded history of picks not a high P&P score. (Although both would be nice). Ultimately let's best the market and let Zacks be the tool.
Author MightyMo     Date September 27, 2010 20:41 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Per the 'game', you've beaten the sp500 overall by 3.72% since 11/25/09. (assuming the 'game' is calculating annual return correctly?).
Author Vet67to82     Date September 28, 2010 15:17 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Thanks for your replies Teledog and MightyMo.

Basically, these fundamental Reward/Risk characteristics apply across the global stock markets, and anyone paying attention to the RRR of their particular stocks, as the the markets' ebb and flow, will let the winners run, and cut them when the Reward potential diminishes vs increasing (markets, sector, industry, company, security, commodity, ... etc) Risk.

As in the example above, if we picked a stock with the potential to gain $4 and the downside risk was $1, that was an RRR of +4. If the stock gains $3 (75% of the target) the "potential reward is now only $1 more ... and the Risk is now climbed with the stock gain. So, the RRR is now $1/$4, or +0.25. Unless something fundamentally, changes to alter the "Estimated 1 year Target" **UP** another +20% the RRR is suggesting to ( 1) review the fundamentals, and ( 2) sell your position, and move on to the next selection.
Author Vet67to82     Date October 10, 2010 00:15 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Apple Inc (AAPL)

Estimated Valuations Update:

Bull $440.00
Mid $346.00
Bear $210.00
Author Vet67to82     Date October 10, 2010 00:16 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Bank of America (BAC) $13.18

Estimated Valuations Update:

Bull $30.00
Mid $25.00
Bear $10.00
Author Vet67to82     Date October 10, 2010 00:22 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Mr Warren Buffet likes railroads ...

Union Pacific (UNP) $84.86

Estimated Valuations Update:

Bull $100.00
Mid $92.00
Bear $71.00


Author Vet67to82     Date October 10, 2010 00:29 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
If you think the economy is still hitting the consumer in the wallet and pocketbook:

Dollar General Corp (DG) $30.00

Estimated Valuations Update:

Bull $43..00
Mid $35.00
Bear $22.00

Want to comment on this post? Sign up now. It's FREE!
Already registered? Log In.
Sponsored Links