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Vet67to82
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Vet67to82's Blog : Sell opinion on American International Group (AIG)

Date September 27, 2010  Edited: September 27, 2010    Comments Comments (4)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (91)   
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This weekend I looked closely at American International Group (AIG)
$37.80 +$1.31 (3.59%) 10:46AM EDT

... the 1 year Estimated Target : $25.00 +/- $ 0.25 though my gut says lower!

While I agree with:

Press Releases Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: American International Group, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank AG, The Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley

-- http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/40030/Zacks+Analyst+Blog+Highlights3A+American+International+Group2C+Citigroup2C+Deutsche+Bank+AG%2C+The+Goldman+Sachs+Group+and+Morgan+Stanley+++

I can't help but look at the USA /AIG discussions to convert the USA's holdings of AIG preferred stock into common stock as anything but detrimental to the common stock price. Also, AIG must pay back BILLIONS to the FED first ... mostly by selling chunks of itself, which reduces assets, reduces liabilities, and also reduces REVENUES, as well as net income, and earnings per share.

Declining revenues and earnings ( EPS (ttm): -$13.78) means the P/E, when there are earnings, is going up.

What is a reasonable P/E for a shrinking company as compared to other companies in the same sector and industry?

What is a reasonable P/E for a shrinking company when you can't tell where or WHEN the shrinking will stop?

Too many questions with no answers gets a SELL opinion.
Tags : AIG   DJIA   SPX   COMP   MET  

4 Comment(s):

Author Neurodoc     Date September 29, 2010 03:18 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Still on my price to sales screen, so I'll hold until it falls off (selling as soon as it does)
Author Vet67to82     Date September 29, 2010 13:21 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Thanks for your reply Neurodoc ... as AIG sells income producing assets, the earnings have NO CHOICE but to fall off as the earning go to the new owners of those assets. Price to sales screens are based on the last reported sales. I'd be paying close attention to the revenue of AIG assets offered for sale. As soon as assets change hands, I'd be out or short.
Author Vet67to82     Date September 29, 2010 13:46 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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AIG finalizes plans to cut US stake
The Treasury Department will convert the $49 billion it holds in preferred shares to common shares.

For the rest of the story -- http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/default.aspx?feat=1810741

"The conversion, which could take place at about $35 per AIG share, is likely to occur in the first half of 2011 and is expected to happen after AIG pays back its secured debt to the New York Federal Reserve ... "

Author Vet67to82     Date October 4, 2010 02:25 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Oct. 4, 2010, 12:59 a.m. EDT

AIG forced to lower valuation on AIA: report

-- http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aig-forced-to-cut-size-of-aia-offering-report-2010-10-04

Oops! That's gonna hurt!
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