Vet67to82's Blog : Moving Averages or Headache 101

I personally don't use moving averages too much becuz they are not that important. I realize that is contrary to poplar o-pin-yun since so many technicians use moving averages to help spot wherst reversals "might" occur. But who's to say that the money runners don't know this and use it as a tool against traders? :-) Anyhoo, moving averages aren't that important. What IS important is knowing where support and resistance areas are for ANY stock you trade....ssspecially majer support/resistance. Those price points can be determined using the DMI indimacator. My udder fav-o-right indimacator is OBV. Most technicians I see sssplaining how to use OBV as a trading clue have it azz backwerds. Positive OBV is NOT a positive sign for a stock...just the opposite actually. Whenst I see a high OBV positive reading I get noivous ifn I'm long....whenst I see an extremely negative OBV reading on a 10 day chart I git giddy ifn I'm lookin ta buy. :-) 3J

JoeJustJoe

.. another website was laughing at noon time when I posted this.

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Hello and happy ( profitable ) trading for all

Last DOW Close: 10172.53
My DJIA Call: 10222.67

Last S&P Close: 1086.84
My S&P Call: 1092.23

... S&P 500 index is the one used by professional traders, it is .....

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From their posts AFTER the close, I have a real good idea how "they" did.

This is how I DID ...


DJIA Close 10,211.07 +38.54 +0.38% vs MyCall 10222.67 ... missed by 11.6 or 0.1136%

S&P 500 Close 1,091.60 +4.76 +0.44% vs MyCall @1092.23 ... missed by 0.63 or 0.05771%

Does math help or hurt? Gee! I missed the S&P close by less than 6 HUNDRETHS of ONE percent FOUR HOURS before the close.


The name of the game is who's closest to being RIGHT ... and who's right the MOST often! and MATH DOES make a difference whether the talking heads refer to it or not.

Sooooo, who's laughing NOW?

Have a great weekend!

Yessir, Vet, deep within the bowels of this fine establishmunt I was mentioning to my cohorts the impotence of the SPX clearing the last little hurdle of 1090. Methinks a move past 1090 now portends the completion ov my designated target of SPX 1115...altho the 1105 area "might" be all she wrote. The VIX also left a nonconfirmt low today at 28.60..and we all "know" how 116 of the last 115 Mondaze have opened even ifn the day actually finished down >>> Up! *-) Sooooo, a strong open on Mon means the VIX moves to an even lower low that needs to git taken out fer this purrtickler move. Therefore, I am "purty confidunt" in my prognastimacations fer the SPX...even tho I'm "purty sho" I Miss Spelled the werd prognastimafuckayshuns...twice! :o Anudder thang is fo sho...2 thangs actually....foist, this SPX rally is being generated by a buy signal and second >>> the VIX selloff is also coming as a direct result of a buy signal. In the case of the SPX this is bearish...in the case of da VIX it is bullish. The windup? This is without a doubt the final rally befo the SPX comes aaall the way back to take out the recent 1040.87 low. So enjoy it whilst it lasts...but doan git caught up in it. *-) BTW, congrats on yer SPX "closing" call. Did you win any beer fo being the closest in that purrtickler contest? If so and joo need someone to help make that beer go away I am definutly available. Have a GREAT weekend yerself. Goooo USA!!! *-) 3J

Well JoeJustJoe
Last DOW Close ( 6/11/2010 ) : 10211.07
My DJIA Call for tomorrow's (6/15/2010) close: 10358.11

Last S&P Close ( 6/11/2010 ) : 1091.60
My S&P Call for tomorrow's (6/15/2010) close: 1107.97


Looks like the SPX 20 month moving average " bottomed " on 6/10/2010 @ 989.34
... Date ....... Close ..... 20mo MA ... 200dy MA
6/7/2010 1,050.47 ... 989.84 ...1106.52
6/8/2010 1,060.00 ... 989.58 .. 1106.84
6/9/2010 1,055.69 ... 989.45 ... 1107.08
6/10/2010 1,086.84 ... 989.34 ... 1107.39 ---- * see note
6/11/2010 1,091.60 ,,, 989.42 ... 1107.72

... Yep, I know ... I AM thinking the S&P 500 retests the 200 day moving average again today ( or tomorrow ) and closes above the MA.

** Possible flies in the ointment ..

( 1) Options expiration this Friday .. expect high volutility
( 2) End of the quarter, and the first 2010 half, on Wednesday 6/30/2010 ... expect mutual funds to reposition portfolio winners and losers for quarterly and half year reports.... expect high volutility

* note: the next 20 month moving average calculation is HIGHER at 989..42 -- bottom?

( Smiling ) the next couple of weeks will tell !!