Vet67to82's Blog : Estimating the JUNE daily closing DJIA and SPX

I wuz jist spewin to me cohorts and mentioning that this heeeya "traditional" 1 PM sell hour is "perhaps" the most 'telling" in the past 2 weeks. "Ifn" the bulls kin continue to muster some strength in here whenst stocks are "usually" getting sold off I'm ssssthinkin thur will be follow thru into the close. That "should" bring out the terminally clueless on the open tamarrah setting thangs up so I kin make em crash n bern into the buy opportunity I have been promising everyone. The SPX won't get thru 1120 on this purrtickler rally no matter what. I'm wreckin that translates to "perhaps" 10250-10300 INDU? I dunno...I doan follow it as closely :-) 3J

My target for Friday's close - SPX below 1044.

Burtski, why stop at 1044? :-) Actually, this whole shebangie "might" git drawn out fer anudder week unless I kin git the SPX to 1115+ foist. Doesn't "look like" the skeeedy cats is gonna panic at the end o'the day like they dunn did last Wed. TZA signaling buy so that means a selloff would be bullish and "hopefully" take er to me 5.80 targut. And TZA tracks the "moron stocks" *-) On top o'that thur I see "that other game participant" has now become a tad mo cautious then he wuz yestermaday...."probly" cuz one o'the compooterized trading desks at GS pulled the "bait n switch" on his azz. Joooo "know" that ifn I kin get em to rally he's gonna sound the "all's clear" and even Email blast the Lemming Newsletter subscribers that it's time to go "all in" :-) I know...I know...all the pieces are falling into place a tad too purrfecktly and thaaas a tad skeeery in itself. Let's see wha happun right cheeeya into the close. *-) 3J

I do my own fundamental and chart analysis with dacades of my OWN data to back up what I see ... Cash on hand, cash flow, Book Value, TANGIBLE book value, current P/Es, vs next year's P/Es ... PEg ....

" ... riduculous valuations ... " I don't think so .... pure jibberish HYPE

I support FACTS not hype.

( 1) The USA recovery is better than that of the rest of the planet ...
and ( 2) USA companies routinely hold on to employees to the last second during a slowdown, and use overtime, part timers, and temps to increase production during a recovery BEFORE hiring " permanent " full time workers.... Soooo, the employment numbers should identify "temps' and "overtime" as well as those with multiple "part time" jobs to give a clearer picture of employment.

( 3) Greece Seeks Billions from Rail, Water Privatizations
Published: Wednesday, 2 Jun 2010 | 9:45 AM ET By: Reuters

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37465186

Basically, Greece has a lot of assets that they can sell, and in the process, converting gov't employees to private sector employees ... without a fire sale that should enable Greece to reduce current and future liabilities ...

This SHOULD strengthen the Euro ... which is what the BEARS used as an EXCUSE for selling the markets .... RISK ... not valuations .... and when risk lightens up the VIX WILL drop and the markets will trend ... lower, or higher ... the path of least resistance and the path where the REWARD outweighs the Risk...

As to Tangible Book Values per share (TBVPS) ...

I.. Citigroup Stock 'Seriously Undervalued': Dick Bove

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37470738

"One example of the fact that the company's tangible book value is understated is Primerica," Bove wrote. "Approximately 60 percent of the company was spun off a month ago. The almost 40 percent that Citigroup still owns is now worth close to $700 million."

II. Many of the FAS, XLF, RIFI.n financials have similarily understated tangible book values (TBVPS) ... and therefore undervalued stock prices based on valuation ratios ... like Price/book value and Price/TBVPS ... etc

.... in the effort to placate the gov't and the markets ... corporations and their auditors WAY overcompensated and SEVERELY undervalued assets to "avoid" lawsuits. .. the very words used in testimony before US Congress ... hearings that I WATCHED and LISTENED to.

I have repeatedly argued for a "FAIR and HONEST" valuation of assets ....

If you think about the excuse for undervaluing assets " ... to avoid lawsuits ... " isn't it flawed thinking? here's 2 flaws:

( 1) Shouldn't the stockholders sue the company AND the auditors for stock price drops tied to deliberately mis-appraised assets ... sounds like grounds for a lawsuit to me ...

( 2) If you're bearish on a company,based on erroroneous asset valuations, and you sell or short the stock .. only to find out later the assets are worth DOUBLE, or TRIPLE .. hmmm! ... sounds like grounds for a lawsuit to me ...
.
( 3) if the financials' asssets would have been given a "FAIR and HONEST" valuation to start with ... we wouldn't have NEEDED TARP and TALF and the USA gov't collecting dividends, preferred shares, shares, and diluting stockholders ....

The USA gov't saw an opportunity to transfer wealth and property without DUE PROCESS and took it.

Seems to me that a "FAIR and HONEST" valuation of assets .... should be the order of the day and any auditor picking a particular asset valuation to avoid lawsuits isn't doing the job they're bring PAID to do ...and should be held accountable.

So, if you're bearish, YOU DIDN'T do your homework .. your OWN homework ...

just my 2c

Your talking about valuation of assets? How about mark to market accounting? That was suspended remember? Citibank along with a bunch of others have empty houses on their books that do not have the proper asset valuation. I believe mark to market needs to be reinstated before you can claim that assets are undervalued. If they were, why hasn't the FASB demanded mark to market reinstated? It would not be an issue if everything is undervalued right?

Actually, mark-to-market wasn't suspended ... I watched and listened to the US Congressional Committee grilling of the FASB and SEC heads to get the GAAP mark-to-market standards fixed before Congress passed rules "they" wouldn't like. MTM was re-worked and nobody was completely happy with the outcome ... but recent sales and IPOs have shown assets are bringing in way MORE cash than what they'd been marked down to on the books ... People are confused b'cuz they believe Book Value's (BV) include intangibles and so are overstated ... but we also have the "new" required metric Tangible Book Value Per Share (TBVPS) which strips out intangibles ... the difference between the two gives people a measuring stick as to whether their stock is "reasonably" priced, or not.

Sunday 6/06/2010 4 PM EST

Well ... Friday, global events and the jobs report, had their day in our markets.

The S&P 500 month to date (MTD) is down 24.53 and year to date down 37.22. The S&P 500 is 41.34 points below the 200 day moving average (1106.22) ... but still above the 20 month moving average of 990.08.

Mondays have been up days ... let's hope this continues.

Sunday 6/06/2010 10:57 PM EST


The cash piling up on the sidelines is huge ... hm!

The selling is in control b'cuz buyers are holding back ... on balance volume, money flow, etc

... I smell a bear trap .... probably hoping to catch the bears and the shorts too deep and leveraged on the wrong side and when the cash starts buying there won't be enough shares available to cover. The math says, ... if enough bears, shorts, and ultrashorts get too badly burned, or go bust ... it'll be two to 3 YEARS before the ones left will be able to challenge the bulls again ...

Use extreme caution here ... don't bet the house ...

Sunday 6/6/2010 11:30 PM EST

Shanghai 2,502.60 -50.99 (-2.00%)
Nikkei 225 9,504.24 -396.95 (-4.01%)
Hang Seng Index 19,268.76 -511.31 (-2.58%)
TSEC 7,136.64 -207.95 (-2.83%)
FTSE 100 5,126.00 0.00 (0.00%)

CAC 40 3,455.61 -101.73 (-2.86%)
S&P TSX 11,569.61 -242.26 (-2.05%)
S&P/ASX 200 4,315.40 -134.00 (-3.01%)
BSE Sensex 17,117.69 +95.36 (0.56%)

Currencies
Euro - USD 1.1887 -0.0079 (-0.66%)
USD - JPY 91.0500 -0.3800 (-0.42%)
GBP - USD 1.4421 -0.0034 (-0.24%)
CAD - USD 0.9366 -0.0070 (-0.74%)
USD - HKD 7.7948 +0.0036 (0.05%)
USD - CNY 6.8304 +0.0018 (0.03%)
AUD - USD 0.8110 -0.0105 (-1.28%)

Bonds
3 Month 0.10% -0.01 (-9.09%)
6 Month 0.19% -0.01 (-5.00%)

2 Year 0.70% -0.02 (-2.78%)
5 Year 1.95% -0.02 (-1.02%)
10 Year 3.20% -0.04 (-1.23%)
30 Year 4.13% -0.05 (-1.20%)

Futures bleeding red ink everywhere ... Euro in the tank vs USD and the Japan Yen ... ouch!

6/16/2010 1:54 PM ET

Last DOW Close: 10404.77
MY DJIA Call for today's close: 10456.71

Last S&P Close: 1115.23
MY S&P Call for today's close: 1120.96

I'd go a tad higher on the SPX close. 1123.50 will be my "guess" but it's always easier whenst things suddenly become more "obvious" :-) Ya gotta admit...thurs a purty drastic change betwixt ths last post o'yers and the one on June 6. :-) Noooow, the tuffer part is figgerin out what happens tamarrah...the next day. My friend and cohort Burtski made a purrdickshun of SPX 1025ish. I'll go with that thur meself...before the close on Mon! :o 3J