Vet67to82's Blog : DJIA looking good for positive close

Report March 19, 2010

Review of DOW JONES INDU AVERAGE (DJIA) as of 3/18/2010

( informational calculations only - not a buy or sell recommendation )

(1) Candlesticks - prices closed higher than they opened, successive 3 white candles occurred in the last three days Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

(2) Moving averages ...DJIA is above the 10 day (10632.79), is above the 20 day (10.503.27), and above the 50 day (10397.04), and well above the 200 day (9768.52)

(3) Momentum Indicators:
- Stochastic Oscillator is 92.8756. This is an overbought reading.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 73.03. This is where it usually tops.
- Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is 150.This is an overbought reading.
- The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its (9) period signal line. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

(4) Chart Checkup:
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging ... this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are " vulnerable " to a correction towards 10,422.25.
The projected upper bound is: 11,050.03.
The projected lower bound is: 10,516.66.
The projected closing price is: 10,783.34.

(5) Statistical info
Smoothed r-squared 0.841
Standard Error 57.673
Linear Regression Slope 21.627
Historical Volatility 0.087

The current peak of r-squared is less than the previous peak. This indicates weakness of the long term trend.The current slope of the close is positive moving higher indicating strength of the medium term uptrend. The standard error is 57.673 At this level there is much lower than normal volatility around the current trend and traders appear in general agreement, allowing the underlying securities of the index to trend easily. The price appears to be following the regression slope well.