Vet67to82's Blog : Shorting Financials = bad plan

Bank of America Corp BAC 1/5/2010 0:25 PM ET
$16.06 +$0.37 +2.36% Vol.: 113,231,503

Chart Checkup ( Short term, 15 minute / 10 day )

Moving Average Price Compare -- No current signals ( Neutral )

Moving Averages -- No current signals ( Neutral )

Bollinger Bands ( bullish uptrend )
BAC's recent volatility has been greater than normal. This is evidenced by the increased distance between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. These bands measure volatility using standard deviation and a large width is due to high volatility. Additionally, BAC is trading near its upper Bollinger Band. This suggests that the stock price is high relative to its recent price action.

Stochastics -- ( Bearish )
The Stochastic Oscillator is registering a bullish signal as the %K line is above the %D; however the oscillator has moved above the critical value of 80 and is now overbought. The overbought condition means that the upwards momentum experienced in this stock is not sustainable.

On Balance Volume -- ( Bullish )
The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) presently offers a bullish signal. This is because the slope of the indicator is positive and shows that there is considerable buying interest.

Price Channel ( Neutral )
BAC is trading within its price channel. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the price action over the last 5 minute period.

Needs to take out 16.75. Once that event occurs it will be free of all manipulation and it'll be able to move to a new 52 week low. I'd give it a 70% chance at bankruptcy actually. Yer best play right now is either RBS which needs to trade thru 14.50...or BCS which will take out 25.68. Nice gapolas up on thatn the past 2 daze so I'm sho the fokes who sssthink like you do won't be able to ignore it once it trades on the third gap up on the open tamarrah. New 52 week lows coming in each of those also and I'd give RBS an equal shot at BK as I do BAC. Not sho why C hasn't run yet but it 'should" see 5.35+...before it goes bankrupt of course. I give thatn a 99% chance of going BK :-) 3J

One other thing, that fundamental traders, like mutual funds and etf's will certain be looking at where BAC is concerned ... and that is ...

ta, da ... BAC Cash per share (MRQ) $17.62

.... and BAC is trading for LESS than BV, TBV, AND the cash per share ... certainly a cushion for buy/sell decisions.

Hmmmm, I "wonder" wherst BAC got all that cashola? I'm wreckin delaying foreclosures as long as possibull so that the current "owner of wreckerd" of the properties in question carry the "losses n fees" as long as possibull is certainly helping. :-) 3J

Well, JoeJustJoe, Happy New Year and thanks for your replies.

I endeavour to run the fundamentals first. I stress fundamentals first ... charting, and models second .... followed by news, analyst upgrades/downgrades, earnings revisions- up/down, etc.

Running with the fundamentals gives me a good ... to great understanding of the stock, the industry, the sector, and the market. It also exposes "hype" vs fact ... at least as of this point in time.

Running the charts, gives me a good, even great, perspective of what the market thinks of those "fundamental" numbers. I also use "volume" in my analyses, but not alone. I like On Balance Volume, Momentum, and Money Flow indicators ... to keep me informed on the market's opinion, direction, and strength of conviction.

Based on the numbers ... Mr. Market, and I (smiling) disagree with your negative outlook, and bankruptcy assessments ... are you sure you don't want to switch to the Bull camp? ... it beats losing money on your "short" calls and positions.

Of course, some people would use your perma-Bearish bias, as a "contrarian indicator" ... so keep up the good work!

My "negative" outlook? I sed BAC needs to trade thru 16.75 before it crashes n berns to oblivion. It's only at 16.20 right cheeeya right now. :-) Soooo, yer a funnymental kinda guy huh? Well, here's a question I axe every one of you fokes. XMSR stock once ran from under $10 dollahs to over $40 dollahs in price yet ifn you look back at the history of XMSR you will find the company NEVER generated ANY errrrrnuns atall. Of course Mr Market gave it the "correct" valuation eventually (SIRI too, which also never generated errrrnuns but ran from $2 dollahs thru $9 dollahs cuz investors thunk that SIRI giving all thur available cashola to Howard Sternum wuz a GOOG thang). Why did XMSR rally from below $10 dollahs thru $40 dollahs whenst they never generated any errrrrnuns? :o BTW, fokes who find it necessary to blog on this site about any purrtickler seckter or stock are the best "reverse indimacators" ...I'll make certain to revisit this blog about BAC in the "not to distant" future in order to prove that to ya. :-) 3J

Well, JoeJustJoe ... I am confused ... You stated above: "...it'll be able to move to a new 52 week low. I'd give it a 70% chance at bankruptcy actually. " is a NEGATIVE outlook ... you get that, ... right? AND, (smiling) may I point out, you've given NO "evidence" whatsoever to support your statement. I, on the other hand ... have stated specifically, BV, TBV, etc which indicate your statement has little to NO basis, in fact. Hmmmmm, I smell hype ... and mis-info, JoeJustJoe.

Second, I would NEVER recommend "investing" in a company that has no earnings, or is losing money. I myself do "speculate" in companies ... like Neuralstem (CUR) due to CUR's patent portfolio, as well as the "potential" for 10x, 20x or 100x returns. If I mentioned it at all, I would CLEARLY "label" my "opinion" as speculative .... and RISKY.

Also, I have NEVER recommended XMSR, or SIRI, based on the fundamentals, or GOOG ... but I am aware that there are "Momentum" traders, who don't care what the fundamentals are, or what the company does, "they" are trading, either day trading, or short term trading, based on the chart direction, and bail out when the chart dictates.

I am surprised that you are not aware of the differences between "investing" methodology vs "trading" methodology and that you would confuse the two ?!

Sorry I lost ya on my outlook fer BAC but what I sed wuz that BAC would trade thru at least 16.75 befo it crashed n burned to a new 52 week low. It "obviously" hasn't gotten thur yet. Nooooow, ifn you are basing your take on BAC as simply a trade then I gots no problem witit. Actually, I gots no problem with taking you and BAC down ifn you plan on holding for the long term none neither since my call on BAC is a "set it n ferget it" play. C on the udder hand woulda stopped most traders out of the trade ifn they had bot at $4 dollahs+ whenst you wreck-o-mended it. I sed it "should" see 5.35+ before it crashes n berns. I also gave you 2 udder plays >>> RBS n BCS that will generate higher % returns for traders than the ones you spewed about...I even gave you price targets. "Investers" (long term holders) will git thur azzes handed to em ifn they hold once my targets are breached. Thaaas the diffrunce betwixt traders n investors as fer as I'm concerned. Also, traders "coulda" used the turn I called in gold n natgas to play those stocks. I meself eliminated some o'my ZSL holdings and added UXG...just for the festivities. I also said USO would trade through 41.92 before it crashed n burned...quite contrary to popular belief at the time whenst USU was in the mid 30's. But now "popular belief" has suddenly become "popular opinion" as my price targets are about to get breached. On top o'that thur we have a local yokel or two spewing about the benefits o'the natgas stocks. The windup? Get ready fo me to werk my majic on these seckters and not only make them screem n cry...but beg for mercy! *-) Gold is still safe until local yokel Lilnev comes out n spews. But be careful...he "might" fall asleep on ya >>>Yaaaaawn. A yawn is the new capitulation bell for the goldbugs. Whenst (not if) Lilnev yawns...WATCH OUT! "if" you are a goldbug. I'm tellin ya...it's amaaaaazing how well you will be able to time the markets ifn you just pay attention to what the natives at this site spew!....and I apologize fer using you as an example but hey....spewage is spewage and "luckily" for you thur's still some "trades' available in the finanshills befo I absotootimussly deeeeeeestroy em. And I'm tawkin MASS destruction. *-) 3J

Well, JoeJustJoe the market ( and I said it first ) agrees with MY assessment and not yours:

" Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) opened at $16.68. So far today, 1/7/2010, the stock has hit a low of $16.63 and a high of $16.79. BAC is now trading at $16.68, up $0.29 (1.77%). Over the last 52 weeks the stock has ranged from a low of $2.53 to a high of $19.10. Analysts at Credit Suisse upgraded BAC to Outperform from Neutral this morning, saying in a note to investors that the stock is the "cheapest" among large banks. The analysts also added that BAC's repayment of TARP bailout funds "relieves a significant overhang on the shares." Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and S&P gives BAC a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking. "

Take your "crash and burn outlook" as an example of nonsense ... BAC Cash per share (MRQ) $17.62 ... where is the cash, the easiest to track, and verify, going to go ???? I don't mind your post(s) ... b'cuz readers can see the differences between my posts and yours ... and draw their own conclusions.

I note you throw out targets ... that have no corresponding basis to either the fundamentals ... or the charts ... at least the charts I am looking at. Please note in the "Chart checkup" I worked up above .. I included the date, I included the time, I included that it was a 15 minute interval over a 10 day period. Why? ... b'cuz people can, using their own charting software, go back to the point in time I expressed "my" opinion ... AND replicate my work to see, for themselves, if I am hype, smoke-n-mirrors, mis-info, ... etc, etc, etc.

NO hype ! NO smoke-n-mirrors ! NO mis-info !

Yes...BAC has o-fish-ally reached my target. Purty kewel the way Mr. Market does eggZack'sly what I tells it to do...no? No wonder even the Pope comes here to see what I gotsta say. :-) Now remember...BAC will make a new 52 week low in 2010....that would be less than 2.53...and they will also face the distinct possibility of BK. Also...so fer the high wuz 17.09. I said it would trade thru 16.75 so ifn I missed the high by all of .30 to .50 centavos...I apologize to you sir. :-) 3J

Otay, as of right cheeeya right now tain't nuphin on the chart (1 year as well as 10 day charts) that says BAC needs to move any higher than it did today...even tho many o'the udder finanshills will do just that. A GOOG way to ssscheck how "rabid" any stock is would be to use OBV as one of yer indimacators on a 10 day chart. Today the OBV traded to +150 mil...but closed closer to 100 mil. That means on the way up fokes wanted it at any price. I'm not sho ifn you ever herd of "herd mentality" but whenst fokes want it at any price and are willing to pay the axed..no matter what that is...WATCH OUT! And an OBV reading of +150 million is certainly rabid enough that you shouldn even sssthink of walking with yer kids to the car unless you gots yer 38 special by yer side cuz ifn they jump out from behind the bushes ya certainly wanna shoot foist!.... and axe questions latta ooooon. *-) I'm wreckin that's what the fokes who sold into the close wuz a ssthinkin. And to get a drop in OBV like that into the close...I'll tell ya right now...that wasn't a small playa *-) A gapup on the open can assure higher prices. Ifn not...here's what BAC will see within 5 trading daze >>> 15.30 It's all right thur on the 10 day chart. All ya gotsta do is look. :-) 3J

Well, JoeJustJoe .... BAC today, 1/11/2010 finished at $16.93 +$0.15

BAC also signaling sell into the close today so "hopefully" it twill continue rallying tamarrah as that would be the most bearish scenario. I'm "expecting" FAS (finanshills) to trade up thru 94.56...and I am also "sssuspecting" BAC will still underperform most o'the udder finanshills. The last 3 daze have basically been a wash fo BAC tho...and my call is not based on 3 or 4 daze o'trading anyhoo. I sed BAC will make a new 52 week low and is a chort altho I wouldn't chort BAC personally cuz I would prefer BCS whenst (not if) it trades thru the 52 week high. :-) Overall some purty GOOG progress for the bears today (altho most bears don't realize it) as the trading desk at GS "almost" got the VIX volimatility index down the "the numba" it needs to see before the entire market can crash n bern. Here's "hoping" for anudder open like todaze *-) BTW, nice progress on yer port. :-) 3J

Vet...just wanted to apolomagize fer missing my BAC target I mentioned in the post I made on 1/7. I sed it twood hit 15.30 in 5 daze...sorry that it took 9 trading daze >>>:-( I'm "usually" purty GOOG with "the numbas" as I'm sho you will now agree. And what's a few daze amongst GOOG friends anyhoo...right? :-) BTW, I'm sho you will be happy to know that my plan is to personally rexscue yer even BIGGER Miss Take which is this POS right cheeya >>> C ...I'm wreckin it'll trade to somewherst belowst 3.15...I'll buy some $4 dollah calls fer like .03 er .04 centavos and make some nice chachingo. You kin go WOW!...and even axe me how...I knew! :-) 3J

Here's what I sed about C....what ifn you had only paid attention? WOW! One again to my legion o'fans. I sed C would take out 3.15 but methinks I missed by about .04 centavos....sorry bout my Miss Gonkulation. My protege Bullski who wuz also following C correckted my error after I made this post. Put up the chart o'BAC back to Jan and you will see that I wuz much more accrut on thatn. It is a chort again BTW....sorry >>> :-( 3J

Since it is "highly" likely we will get confirmation o'the opening low prices on the finanshill chortin ETF's FAZ n SKF sometime heeeya today I am o-fish-ally selling all C calls. I sssuspect C will revisit the 3.25 area once agin befo it ever attempts to takeout that last 5.35 numba I mentioned. Of course as I also mentioned....C is more or less the "red headed step child" o'the money runner banks. It may in fackt NEVER trade thru 5.35 before it trades belowst .97 centavos. And trade belowst .97 centavos it certainly will do. *-) 3J