Vet67to82's Blog : Seasonality

UNG "might be" a tad closer to a long term bottom than GAZ. Ifn ya noticed....natgas has been trading directly opposite of Earl (USO) for quite some time now. USO still needs to takeout 41.97 before it crahses n berns to the point wherst it twill measure physical Earl back to wherst it twas trading before George W. Bushwhacked initiated the bubble years in Earl ....which commenced from near $20 dollahs per barrel. The ENTIRE bubble created by da Bushies will be eliminated...so make no Miss Take about that. Which leads us back to natgas. I SIRIously doubt GAZ will break much belowst last majer support at 12.45 before it falls at least 30% lower than that thur. Yer 'guess" is as GOOG as mine about which tops foist...USO to 41.92 or GAZ thru 14.50....altho my guess on gold was "obviously" better than NE1 else's on the planet. Pleez....make no Miss Take about that thur. *-) I do follow CHK quite closely. Ifn natgas takes the lead over Earl, CHK will trade thru $25 dollahs. I dare ya ta hold it past thur however since longer term it is a sub $5 dollah stock. Remember, we are going into a deflationary cycle like the werld has never experienced. Wall St will be taken down and "hopefully" the ways of Wall St will be eliminated in a blaze of fiery glory...just like residunt goldbug Lilnev most certainly will be...again. *-) 3J

I agree that CHK has been a peak & valley play for the past year, where this strategy for 2009 has realized a NET gain of 130% (after commissions) versus a 61.5% with a buy and hold strategy (more than a 2X gain).
However, natural gas storage is running at or about 99%. It will be another couple of weeks or so before the seasonal uptick begins to chisel away at the inventory.
Also, one needs to be aware of the fair market value for CHK which might be as high as $28/sh, but I would not hold it thru more than $26/sh (if you purchase at the closing price of $22.57 as of 12/04/09)
CHK also has some cash flow problems, but this is probably an artifact of the lingering hangover from 2008. CHK needs to hope that the numbers for global warming were really fudged by the experts, before their financials are capable of sustaining a return to their legacy $30/sh value.

Thanks for your post smokin_hot. I'm just pointing out, ahead of the curve, that there are opportunities ahead, for those who are interested ... instead of waiting 'till it's over, and bragging about the boatloads of cash.

I own a few shares of Eagle Rock (EROC) and have been thinking along the same lines lately - and will probably add to my long position. Especially since the temps dropped below 0 this weekend here in the Denver area!

Well, I sed either USO or the GAZ/UNG duo would take the lead to the upside...altho I couldn't honestly tell which one would lead the way. "Looks like" we found out tho. Of course this means you fellahs lookin to buy the natgas related stocks will be foist to git yer azzes kicked. :-) I gave ya "the numba" GAZ needs to trade thru. Ifn yer gona trade CHK I gave ya that numba too. I'll be waiting. *-) 3J

Southern New England is experiencing a cold snap ... 14F with wind chill -1F and a Low forming in the Gulf of Mexico that could be a huge "snow" storm for the Saturday/Sunday period in Southern New England. 50% of USA homes use nat gas ... expect the Thursday US EIA to report another drawdown in nat gas supplies based on it takes MORE btus to bring a home from -1F to 70F ... and the other 50% primarily use home heating oil so expect the Wednesday US EIA to report a bigger drawdown in crude supplies. That's another reason I invest in the CHK's, UNG's, etc ... the money goes circular. When I invest in the companies, of the products I use, the money comes back to me, in dividends ... and stock price increases.

Meanwhilst...back at the casino that is Wall St the play GAZ that I mentioned put in a confirmed top on Fri with the move thru 15.25. A tad more "ooomphage" in UNG however. Can natgas actually hit the skids even tho the masters of the "obvious" are saying the weather is dictating a "noooo waaaaay" ??? :o Stay tuned sports fans....whilst Sporthunter STILL tries to figger out WTF is up with CKSW. *-) BTW n for the wreckerd...I didn add CHK to me list just yet...even tho it hit "the numba" like I sed it twood on Dec 5th whenst it twas quite a tad lower. The way I sees it..."somebody" has gotta be ssthinkin like Vet is ssthinkin bout natgas and the pure natgas playz like CHK. Of course they is only "wishin" they had played my "pennies from heaven" play DPTR from belowst .80 centavos whenst I wuz toutin thatn too. It's just that most sheeple prefer to wait an entire year for that kind of gain...before I take it away from em of course :-) 3J