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S&P 500: 1,342.64 Change: +0.17%
sporthunter
P&P Score: 0.48   Points: -274.57   Accuracy: 72.26%   Average Pick Score: 0.50   Annual Return: 21.85% (79.56% since 6/23/08)  

sporthunter's Blog : Playing with "House Money"

Date November 18, 2009    Comments Comments (10)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (59)   
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Before I get into my thoughts, understand a casino wants you to continue playing with "house Money" because they know sooner not later they will recover their money and take yours before you leave the casino.

Now, for this BEAR market rally, I have taken profits along the way andhave jumped in and out of positions when momentum dictates. As of today, I am clearly on the side of the rally is ending. The major factor that leads me to believe this rally is ending is the shear (dramatic) drop-off in volume following this rally. I indicated, I thought a retraction back to 7600 was my target, but I think it could go much lower.

That being said, I am taking money off the table on any gains and building a large cash position. I have started buying "puts" leaps in my personal portfolio. Happy Trading.


10 Comment(s):

Author frankbean     Date November 18, 2009 21:01 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Good post, ... reminds us all to review the action on $SPX $DJIA and $NYSE.

Im seeing the bigger volume down weeks and smaller volume up weeks. Gives us some reason to tread lightly on our positions if they are short term ones.

Thanks

Owl
Author JoeJustJoe     Date November 18, 2009 21:02 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Well, as of right now you are still down .20 centavos on your last CKSW WOOHOO. Since you don't use stops...don't leave em guessin ifn you plan on bailing on your own trades again. And pleeez....ifn you are planning anudder trade like yer last one wherst you bot at 7.50, 6.00, and 5.25 only to get out at 5.75 at least don't do a damn thing for 30 trading daze this time. Your last trade generated a nice loss and you just wiped out the prospects for writing that loss off against udder gains cuz you bot back in at 5.88....after you sold at 5.75 a scant few daze earlier thur, Einstein. Just hold da beitch until 5.10 gets hit like I sed it twood. By then CraPSToned "should be" back up around 1.45 and you can WOOHOO that POS again since you didn't say squat at 1.10 a short 5 daze ago. :o 3J
Author frankbean     Date November 18, 2009 21:12 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Charts that look interesting today in spite of the impending doom, are ... DSX, GRO HNT CNH WG GHM
Author TickerBandit     Date November 19, 2009 07:32  Edited: November 19, 2009 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The "easy" in this cyclical bull market is over. Until we get a reversal from a uniformly down market ... that is. When that happens, most stocks will rise uniformly.

The present stage we are in is one where the market is focusing on the stocks we see in the major indices. Particularly the DOW and to some extent the "major issues" of the SP500 which carry the majority of its weight. However, by some of the measures I use to judge momentum, the majority of issues are selling. It is unlikely that 30 issues will drag the market higher. The converse has higher probability. So bear that in mind going forward.

Author TickerBandit     Date November 19, 2009 07:52 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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One last thing. Regarding Sporthunter's reference to the "house's money", I agree with him completely.

If the money in one's account isn't his .... then just whose is it? The market makers'? One really needs to defend "all of his capital" and it really doesn't matter where that captial is sourced. If one has earned it, it belongs to him until it is lost.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date November 19, 2009 08:03 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Yepper Owl, that list is "primo" ....you "might" wanna add LZB and maybe even yer JMBA to the list too. If you are having difficulty finding chit that's gonna end up on yer open list with returns like MNTG (in a raging bull market) simply look for crap that is ramping on the open on news...speecially errrrrnuns news. Looka JMBA on Tue fer instunce. A "needle point" open to skewer the morons and then only the most clueless hang around for the rest o'the week. Don't werry...they'll be back. Gotsta be palenty of idiots that would enjoy riding a $2 dollah stock aaaall the way down to .35 centavos ...ifn not bankruptcy. *-) I "hope" you doan mind ifn I borrow yer GHM thingy thur. That one looks reeeal GOOG....a trendlow at 16.50 signaling a "maxi" move to maybe 21.50 ...but all it gotsta do is take out yestermadaze 20.34 high basically and a move sub $12 dollahs is gar-own-teed. Nice! You need to start putting more picks up. I miss all the grrreat plays you used to bring me. :-) 3J
Author JoeJustJoe     Date November 19, 2009 10:43 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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CKSW gonna take out the 5.32 low....now at 5.38. I'll let you make the call. All you've done so fer is gotten everybody's azz kicked. We will use the next "WOOHOO by you" as a sell opportunity. That will make it simple enuff for fokes who can't read a chart LOL 3J
Author JoeJustJoe     Date November 19, 2009 10:47 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Never mind..I see you already made your call and panicd out before the open so ya wouldn't get caught in the gapdown move. Glad to see you are learning sumphin from Mighty Mouth about "Simage" *-) 3J
Author sporthunter     Date November 19, 2009 15:40 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Read the last paragraph, I let you know I was taking profits, seeing that momentum has wand. I still contend that CKSW is a buy on pullbacks. They way you follow this stock, you should know that this stock takes a hit whenever the dollar shows some strength. I will be in and out of this position all the time. Ireland and Portugal realize the benefits of this Gem.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date November 19, 2009 15:50 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Yeah, you are taking your gains on CKSW from a 5.88 buy point. GOOG thing funny muny trading is much easier than real $$$ trading on them thur gapdown daze. LOL Do yerself a flavor....take my advice and don't even trade it. Your last 2 trades were losers. Common sense "should" tell you to stay away until the 30 day wash period is over. Besides, now that you are neggy on the markets you can expect a rally. That means you will chase it again...come out and WOOHOO....and end up getting yerass kicked....just like you have every single time with every single stock you WOOHOO'd so fer. Step aside...or make the "correct" buy call for once....and I already gave you what that is for CKSW so it "shouldn't" be too difficult for ye :-) 3J
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