sporthunter's Blog : Buying Opportunities

Well, at least yer doing better this time. Nobody can accuse you as a "pumper" aftr ya just got yerass handed to ya with CKSW....thaaas fo sho. *-) Based on the fackt that todaze 5.16 low won't even be low enuff to turn the POS "perhaps" we will see what happens to fokes who try n catch falling knives. I'm sho you herd thatn befo. :-) Just so ya unnerstand the difference betwixt a pumper anna falling knife catcher....simply go to yer bloglist and look wherst APA, CKSW, CJC, etc was each time you pumped em. Take a chart with ya so thur is noooooo mistaking thangs. You will "plainly" see that APA n CJC in purrticular fell appx 10% offa the highs previous to these recent highs the last time you pumped em. Now that you came back and pumped em again well naturally they have started dumpin again...cuz "in general" that's what happens to a pumper almost immediately after they spew. *-) I'm glad to see you are in the "buy the pullback" mode now however....that's quite the change for ye. We'll see how that werks out. You gots APA at 93.85....OIH at 118.36...and CKSW at 7.50...$6.00...and $5.25...gulp! :o Ya want CraPSToned too? ...It ain't at .76 centavos yet ya know. My hat goes off to ya for actually having the gutz to step up tho. GOOG luck to ya! *-) 3J

Sporthunter,

While I am not yet buying, I agree that many good tickers are getting hit to attractive levels. The opportunity for bulls during this correction exceeds the opportunity for the bears.

Regarding the correction, on the 22nd (http://tinyurl.com/ykcrqjr) noted in IslandTrader's blog that indications supported above neutral probability (>50%) that a significant correction was imminent. I also noted that I had already begun selling long exposure and would continue to do so. The following day took me out of everything but long term covered call positions which are hedged covered call.

Today, indications still support above neutral probability of significant correction. Significant correction being a correction greater than 7% or lasting 4 weeks or longer (or possibly both :-) ). There is of course probability that this correction isn't going to be significant. We will get clues to that on the next rally. If it fails quickly (2 to 5 days) and particularly at a lower high, the weakness is likely to continue to be followed by a new lower low.

It is possible, (even perhaps more likely than not) that a new lower low may print prior to any qualified rally attempt. If this happens then the 7% part of significant may be met bringing the probability of further downside closer to neutral. Even so, a lower low in the sequence is to be taken seriously and a watchful eye kept on the following rally. Premature failure will likely indicate another lower low in the sequence. If this latter scenario happens, look for weakness into to opex.

Its still a bull market, and good stocks are going to recover. For those who bought the most beaten down stocks in March and April, it may not, and probably will not, work as well for the remainder of bull market. Exposure will need be concentrated in stocks to which the market is focused.

TB,
That was a fantastic call on the 22nd! Nicely done :-). Anyone who listened to you saved themselves quite a headache. It's time to use this correction to get some better prices on the quality names out there. Good luck to you.
Zaphod

Thanks for the compliment and the good wishes zaphod. Good fortune also to you.

In retrospect, I find identifying tops to be particularly challenging. Also the methods I use are less than perfect. By that I mean, they aren't always correct. So regarding the call on the 22nd, we are dealing with probabilities I associate with breadth technicals. In any event, its pretty easy to identify an overbought condition but rather difficult to determine whether the condition will persist or whether weakness which follows will be supported as a new higher low in the sequence.

In any event, I am noticing good tickers getting slaughtered here. I know of one which is growing earnings at greater than 100% and is now priced a little above 10PE. And as crazy as it sounds, I think its going to get cheaper. :-) Anyway, as much as we see divergence today in the market, it is no where near as divergent as any bull market top I can recollect. Given on the slower indications of divergence, probabilities support higher prices (new highs) six month distant in time.

I outlined a play at my new SRS chort that I put up yestermaday....including price targets. Basically everything is going eggZack'sly as I sed it twood once again...including the GDP report. For those who prefer not to take a chance on an individual stock you can play the ETF's. The "problem" with playing individual stocks is that too many of em now have all tops confirmed....or even werser yet like TB's ESLR, they will get no luv no matter what the markets do >>> :-( The play I outlined at me SRS open pick will move 30%+ befo "the end" comes. Not too chabby. Of course this is ass-ooming the trading desk at GS allows my pick to confirm its nonconfirmed high at $7 dollahs :-) 3J

That's great that you wrote about a blog on when to buy CKSW. Just write one at the time you sell too! CKSW tanked pretty hard one day. But of course you were out of it already. CKSW has some ups to go but not far. I see an eventual pullback to at least $3 in my tea leaves. But I could be wrong. My point is timing makes all the difference. It's great you jumped back in at the low. Just let the "silent people" who may be following you and your greatness know when you sell too so they aren't holding the bag.

My sentiments eggZacks'ly thur, Burtski. Sometimes a pump is as subtle as a "yaaaaawn" ....but looka what happend to the morons who followed Lilnev into the goldpig stocks that day. Ya lost up to 40% of yer bankroll...with NO CHANCE at getting even cuz you already sold with a big loss and like any GOOG moron you will only buy again after the play in question is only 10% from the high...ifn I even let it retest the high. Did Lilnev come back and say to buy UXG...his best performer....the past few daze? Nope! I did! LOL Lissen clowns n idiots...ifn yer gonna pump then pump whenst it is the "correct" time to pump....not whenst it's time to get our azzes kicked. "Luckily" for all I took care of Mighty Mouth to the point wherst we won't hear from him for awhile. :-) BTW, CKSW left a nonconfirmed high at 9.18...I wouldn touch it no way no how tho. *-) 3J

Burt and 3J,

With all due respect, you are wrong. Anyone following Sporthunter would have been able to see where he sold it. Besides, how could he have known it was going to tank?

Think of like this. You guys accuse him of "hyping the stock" thereby running it up. Well if that is the case, wouldn't blogging to sell it "hype it down"? In my profile I am quite specific about this. If one wants to buy the tickers I put up for picks ... do so base on YOUR OWN BEST JUDGEMENT ... after performing YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE ... and make entry and exit BASED ON YOUR TRADING RULES.

I simply don't accept responsibility for lazy traders. If a person isn't capable of trading successfully without Sporthunter or any other person. STAY OUT OF THE MARKETS becasue you simply have no business being in them. The way to view Sporthunter's picks, mine, or any others is as a source of perspective and trading ideas. Any individual unwilling to take responsibility for his investment actions, regardless of the source of his trading ideas, is doomed to fail. Only people capable of making independent decisions ... whether in agreement or disagreement of his sources of ideas ... are capable of succeeding.

I mean this 100%. I don't need people to participate in my picks to succeed. If a person wouldn't buy a ticker independent of me, then HE SHOULD NOT BUY IT AT ALL. If a person wouldn't make entry where I made entry, then HE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AN ENTRY SUITS HIM. If a person would not hold a ticker for any reason that remains in my open list, HE SHOULD SELL IMMEDIATELY AND FOLLOW HIS RULES FOR TRADING.

It is petty pathetic comments like the two above which discourage good profitable traders from blogging in this forum. The only people you guys bash are people who are successfully navigating this market and yet your own history indicates failure to participate in the bull market and failure to profit in your P&P portfolios.

The DOW dropped over 100 points 3 of the last 4 sessions. However this was probably due to technical reasons as the fundamentals, earnings reports in whole, sentiment, and the 52 weekly and 78 weekly charts did not show a break in trend or MA's. I'm raising my estimate on the DOW from 10800 to touching or testing 11000 before the end of the year. It's time to buy. Good ole Cramer is wrong again.

TB, I never said he was pumping CKSW up in order to benefit. I can read a chart. Going into errrrrnuns CKSW was already showing a trendhigh so NE1 that can read a chart could have made a simple "acknowledgement" that .."yes...the stock just ran up for 30%+ offa the low that was set the last time Sport was out WOOHOOin...."perhaps" I should take some off." ...that's what the chart said regardless if Sport had the power to speak and rally a stock like some CNBC morons the sheeple lissen to do. Sport is consistantly afflicted with "mature rally WOOHOO syndrome" ....that's a fact. *-) I'd much rather see him pick a bottom than set a top. That's why it's gonna be intrusting to see how he handles this pullback in CKSW. I'm wreckin he will ave down until it eventually gets him out with a gain. Not a bad strategery actually. But "probly" not a GOOG strategery either being that the markets will once again be going into crash n bern mode. :-) BTW, that's my call....just as it twas my call that CKSW should not be bot befo Tues low goes bye bye. But we'll let Sport handle it. :-) BTW, I already gave Mighty Mouth credit for "succesfully navigating" STEC, GS (3 times so fer....but he'll be taking losses all the way down to $40 dollahs), DNDN, and DAN....and I did give credit to Sport whenst I initiated chorts in CCJ n APA on recent WOOHOO's. I even gave credit to Sport on FRG whenst I closed it with a 5.78% gain in 2 daze and whenst (not if) CraPSToned sees .76 centavos I will certainly make sure he gets credit fo that too.....you can research my open and closed picks to see that I do give "proper credit" to the one who brung me the pick :-) 3J

Mo,

I did buy this morning in the first moments after GDP. I consider this a swing position. And by that I mean that I am playing it on slower intraday indication. My reason for doing so is because I anticipate a failure of this rally in the next 2 to 4 days followed by a lower low. I could be wrong about that so I will allow this position to trade with volatility supported by lower end of its short interval supporting trend. Let's see where the rally takes us.

As for DOW 11000? Why not? I think I told you in June I saw DOW 6500 at years end but that was before it broke the downtrend which resisted prices in June. So right now, I have to say that is possible even with a significant correction I see as a likely outcome.

3J,

What you are doing isn't right. What about all your crappy trades? Where you blog to benefit yourself?

I don't know if this occurs to you, but good traders simply don't nitpick failed trades. Which is why no one picks on you. It is bad practice to fret soured trades because the fretting interferes with success. We don't do it with our own trades and we don't do it with others. If I mention disagreement about a ticker, that is all that is disagreement which I feel is timely, basically my 2 cents "then". You aren't going to see me rubbing it in anyone's nose if I happen to be correct about it. That's poor conduct and a clear sign to me of an inept trader.

TB, do yerself a flavor and don't git shaken out whenst I take care o'the sheeple that bot "just after the GDP report" :-) I know you added the "just after" part to kinda single yerself out as sumbody who is "perhaps" a tad slicker than most. It ain't just most...it's EVERYBODY who bot that created this little gapola that is gonna be "POOF'd". That means many of yuns sheeple are gonna git eliminated from yer new buyz here shortly. *-) BTW, what is your weapon of choice for the rally I have planned for you to enjoy? I didn panic outta about 500 points in losses yestermaday fer nuphin ya know. :-) Did you ssscheck out my play? ??? 3J

One last thing. Sporthunter's trade was successful. Any following him making entry when he did and exiting when he did made money. What you and Burt are doing is conjuring a straw-man on a successful trade trying to present it as a failure to people who may or may not exist. It is undeserved bashing and I stand by that.

TB, I encourage that fokes bash me actually. The problem is that whenever somebody bashes me they end up gettin thur axe kicked. I'm sorry it always happens that way but hey!...I AM the markets as you know. And I'm sure you are sooprised that I can be so right so often yet remain so humble n luvable...no? :-) I'm wreckin the reason I pick on Mighty Mouth so much is becuz he is purt near EXACTLY like Jim Cramer. ....and Cramer has caused more pain to the "little guy" than any other person on the planet. Face it...thru would be no Cramer Wall of Shame ifn Cramer didn't foist say those stocks on the Wall were buyz at levels 50 to 90% higher. You would sssthink that eventually Cramer would learn. Same with Mighty Mouth....I'll keep pounding both into the pavement face foist until they DO learn. But it's all about making America great again...that's all. :-) 3J

3J here is how I see it :



The SP500 is up 3.99% as of yesterday where these stats are pegged. Sporthunter has outperformed the SP500 by 3.7% which is nearly double the SP500. The outperformance was in less than 3 months and annualized exceeds 15.6%. Considering the average yearly gain of the stock market is only 10%, I consider the performance COMMENDABLE and worthy of respect.

You on the other hand have underperformed a short position in the SP500 by 2.89%. Annualized your underperformance of a "short position in the SP500" exceeds 11%. But since the SP gained during the period your underperformance of holding the SP500 is 10.87% or annualized the underperformance exceeds 36% relative to holding the SP500. Considering the average annual gain of the SP500 is only around 10%, I consider your 36% annualized underperformance NOTABLE to anyone who has a mind "to think".

OK, I already don't have any more time to waste this ... I'm outta here :-)

Well...make 3 "small" adjustos to the results so we can see wherst I am in comparison to Sport. Foist...you "might" hasta go several pages into Sport's closed picks but ifn ya do you will see that he was holding the ole FAZoo with a 50 point loss on the day it did the 1/10 reverse split. I'm not sure of the eggZack's numba but as a result o'him closing the trade out after the split he generated like 575 positive points...the majority of his current point total. Now...on my open picks you will find my biggest loser right now is UIS. In "reality" I should only be down maybe 70 points...but becuz of a 1/10 reverse split that hasn't been accounted for I am down 1500 points. :o Also, you could research my closed picks and see I was penalized an additional 480 points for a reverse split in SFE. Soooo, to get to the "troo" numbas pleez take these Miss Gonkulations into account. I don't let it bother me too much cuz even ifn I am forced to hold the "false results" with the UIS trade I will end up being one o'the top performers here over time. I am simply THAT GOOG! What are ya playin for the rally? Don't be skeerd ta jinx yerself thur, TB....unless you are longin tis POS right cheeya that is >>> GS :-) 3J

Ooops! In order to get the numbas right I researched Sport's FAZ trade. It's on page 5 of his closed picks. He ended up generating 388 points plus the 50 or so he was down so in fairness it twas more like 425 points he was awarded....sorry. :-) 3J

BZZZZZZZT! FAZ was closed before 8-5-2009.

The split took place in errrly July...about 1 day before Sport closed out his pick but you can simply axe him since he's the one whio closed out the play. I notified the Showrunner that the adjusto needed to be made and held the pick opened till the adjusto was made....cuz I doan need to cheat. One o'them thur raaaaare cases whenst funny money trading wuz eeeasier than real $$$ trading I guess... cuz I sho didn git credit for it in real $$$. >>> :-( Nonetheless.water under da bridge cuz what was still is and tain't nuphin we can do about it. *-) 3J

My "play" for the coming rally just hit 5.50 and this is wherst I ssssuspect the pullback leading to my buy will begin. "Hopefully" I will be able to put it up as a long at todaze close. Ifn the bulls are gonna show what they are made of well...do it nooooooooooooooooow! :-) Attention shoppers....pleez be advised that thur is only 15 minutes left in the "traditional" 2PM ramp hour. Pleez finish yer last purchases and bring them to the checkout counter so we can put them in a bag for you. Thank you. .....This was a public soivice annaouncement....now back to your "regularly scheduled" idiot ramp...BZZZZZZZT! :-) 3J

3J, 3J, FAZ isn't part of Sporthunter's portfolio score. He didn't own it over the period the score is calculated. Granted it counts for almost half of his points per pick, but even so, his points per pick still exceeds yours sufficiently to say he does a better job of outperforming than you.

Uhhhm...purt near everybody does a better job than me right now...cept for maybe Mack ifn ya go by annual return :-) The premium Sport gots makes a BIG differnce in ave pick score...which is "obviously" the MOST impotent stat *-)...the premium taken away from me makes a BIG diffrunce in my annual returns since I was penalized on both picks since Aug. Of course annual returns change very quickly as you have found with your own personal atomic drop here lately. :-) But like me sed ba ba bafo....it doan matter wherst ya been. I am still positioned better than NE1 at this site going forward and that's what keeps me on top. Of course you don't notice it yet. But then again...judging by your results, you didn't even notice that this was the strongest uptrend you will see in your lifetime either. :-) 3J

Its not as noticeable when one is long the greatest bull market of our lifetimes as it is when one is short. So I guess you are right. You "felt it" more than I did and so probably noticed more also.

Trust me...I feel for ye. I know it's frustrating to make sloooow progress....and then have all of your gains wiped out with a single bad pick that gaps down on news. You've done that several times. But thaaaas what happens whenst you buy nuphin but stocks that are putting in tops. You got "lucky" enuff to get out just before the dumpage on several occasions. But not all o'thum. >>> :-( You were a tremendous case study for fokes who wanted to see how you can actually lose money in a raging bullmarket. "Hopefully" you will play the looooong protracted downtrend I will be bringin ya alot better than you played the rally. Remember....don't ever do it without yer FAZ on. :-) BTW, you got out of your new long positions that you bot "just after the GDP news" yestermaday errrly in PM trading this moanin. Just figgerd I'd let everyone know so you doesn't has to. :-) 3J

Hmmm...it "appears to be" the time whenst enquiring minds "might" want some guidance on what to do wit CKSW. Will guidance be coming from Sport? >>> Doubtful. :-) 3J