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S&P 500: 1,317.11 Change: -0.21%
rjm77me
P&P Score: 99.94   Points: 616.65   Accuracy: 77.28%   Average Pick Score: 0.89   Annual Return: 32.85% (94.05% since 7/16/09)  

rjm77me's Blog : Miss reading at your own risk - Next wave for up side

Date September 16, 2009  Edited: September 18, 2009    Comments Comments (6)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (75)   
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Market is proving me wrong this morning (Sept 17). The sector did open higher and it reversed.

Here are my thoghts for next 2 weeks - again these are my personal views and take it with a grain of salt. One word of caution, these stocks are speculative and any correction will make them better buys. One can take 25% position at any point and can wait to buy later.

The iron, copper / finished steel demand is going up - meaning the iron ore stock piles have to be shipped via sea ships. All dry ship stocks are sitting in the basement and trading volume is increasing along with 5 to 10% price movements. This means that sooner or later these stocks will move up. How much is up to your own interpetation? my view is 50% in next 3 months.

I plan to hold a core holding of EXM and DRYS for next 15 days hold. I will also use these two for day / swing trading. I will be usinging 7% stop loss.
My other stocks in this sector are FRO, DAC and DSX.
You may like others in this sector.

I have 1000 shares in EXM and 500 in DRYS at this time. I have been trading in and out for small profits in last 5 days in these two stocks. This is as full disclosure at this time.
Update Thursday afternoon - sold half of position at slightly above break even and holding half position only - will be buyer on dips

Link to Baltic dry index chart
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Tags : DRYS   EXM   DAC   DSX   FRO   EGLE   TBSI  

6 Comment(s):

Author frankbean     Date September 16, 2009 20:50 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Good post. I would prefer ISH, GNK, and OSG. These stocks are bigger and cheaper. Which means when things correct, they might not experience as much downside % as the small ones.

I remember in January 2008 all the analyst were harping that you have to be buying dry ships here at $60. And they were right for a short while. From a chart perspective, your right. If this is a bottom, then DRYS has a lot more upside than many others, but I worry about a correction that is going to be more severe the faster the market rises.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 16, 2009 22:29 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Yes! Grrrreat job trading tem thur shippers Rim-me...I see you "finally" decided to just hold DRYS for the next 15 daze after you daytraded it in and out the past 5 dayz. That "might" work out purty GOOG for ya. Specially ifn you handle it as masterfully as you handled the daytrades. I see you bot DRYS the close last Th and caught the gapup move ..which you sold on the open Fri. Then you got back in on the open on Mon at the 6.50 low and sold on the open on Tues but bot the close...that's how the chart says your story "should go" anyhoo. But now you are holding for 15 more daze....all of a sudden...after it's up 30% in 8 trading daze....and you missed not a single turn by daytrading it instead of holding. Hey...that makes sense ta me! LOL Anyhoo, yer Tai Ming was "almost" purrfect...and the only reason I say "almost" is cuz ya missed each top n bottom by .05 centavos or so. Yer gonna need to werk on that thur *-) BTW, did you meet OnIslandTrader? He had a buncha sucksess with SVA, NVAX, APT, and BCRX...but only in real $$$ of course. The only one he is carrying on his open list here is BCRX with a 10% loss ...but as we all know...this funnymoney trading chit is haaard! >>> :-( BTW, is thur some kind of award being offerd for the best trading tall tale er sumphin? I noticed a "slight increase" in the number of fish tales being thrown about the place lately :-) Just playin with ya thur Rim-me...no need for a response since the only possible response to yer response would be >>> "Uhhmmm yeeeeah...ooooh ...kaaaaay" :-) 3J
Author rjm77me     Date September 17, 2009 11:00 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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You said it - Thanks
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 17, 2009 11:09 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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No...thaaaank yooooooou for giving a mention to thisn right cheeeya >> CHK *-) Methinks that would be a great "chort n hold" for like 15 mumphs. A tad longer than 15 daze I'll admit... but I'm shooting for a GAHUUUUGE gain and you're tryin ta git yer axe kicked :-) 3J
Author rjm77me     Date September 17, 2009 20:29 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Mr Joe - I like your writing and sense of humur
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 17, 2009 21:42 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Hey thanx...I kinda enjoy lissnen to meself spew also...but that's "probly" just cuz I make so much FooKing sense. I see you put DRYS back up as a long today. Now THAT's the spirit! To heyell with this 'buy n hold" crap..even ifn it is for only 15 daze. In 15 days Dryships could get the dry heaves. what would they do then....use the ships to store all the excess Earl that'll be available after I'm done spalunkin the Earl idiots? Hmmmm....that "might" end up being an intrusting inbestment theme going forward. Lemme know if ya come up wit some ideas on how ta play it...besides the ones ya gave me already like CHK...and thanx! *-) 3J
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