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rjm77me
P&P Score: 99.94   Points: 616.65   Accuracy: 77.28%   Average Pick Score: 0.89   Annual Return: 32.85% (94.05% since 7/16/09)  

rjm77me's Blog : Next Big Wave to make Money in Energy

Date September 7, 2009  Edited: September 10, 2009    Comments Comments (5)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (102)   
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In my opinion - next big / smart money will be made in Energy Trade - Not Oil and Not Solar. The money will be made in beaten down Natural gas plays. I may be ahead of the curve by 2 months. 90% of folks are negative on this sector
US is swimming in abundant supply of natural gas with prices at all time low. 15 years ago, most of the Canadian Taxi's in Toronto were using natural compressed gas due to cost advantage. I used to live in Canada at that time. You can tell the gas vehicles by the after burn smell. I do not know about the cab usage of natural gas at this time. Cabs are rare in my area. I have to book one ahead of time. Public city transportation does in exist in 90% of Michigan.
Next step by the current administration should be to offer some incentive to develop infrastructure for gas filling stations and conversion of vehicles to natural gas. The work can start by using big city fleets like NY, LA, Chicago where a little incentive to convert to gas can start quick pay back for users and administration. The gas produces only 33% of harmful pollution as compared to oil power.
The plays can be stocks like CLNE - provides Natural gas filling infrastructure or FSYS - supplies components and know how. Please add to the list of potential plays in this area.
I do not own any of the stocks mentioned above at this time except few options on UNG.
I plan to build 10% of portfolio around this theme. I am a buyer on dips only. My time frame is a year out and not willing to pay the top price to build a portfolio with 12 month time frame.
The smart money is made some times by not following the herd or being ahead of others. Folks made money when steel, coal and oil were going up and they made twice as much when it crashed in a short time. Smart money is made by selling before top or when it retraces by no more then top. 70% of investors get too late in to game and hold losers for long time

Update Sep 10 - UNG up 6%
Tags : FSYS   CLNE   UNG   CHK   APC  

5 Comment(s):

Author sporthunter     Date September 8, 2009 15:42 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I always recommend that 85% is sector selection and 15% in the actual stock pick. I currently own options in UNG Jan2010 $11.00 call. I feel this will gain momentum based on the massive pullback until Nov 21. After that I believe with the lack of demand and surplus of natural gas supplies that companies like CHK could pull back to around $13.00. This is my target for entry. I really like UPL as my main Natural Gas stock play. I use to own CLNE but took some profits and have not reentered that position since MR/MRS. Boone Pickens sold off a large portion of their holdings. Happy Trading.
Author Nomadamon     Date September 8, 2009 19:35 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I bought a few shares of EROC due to the unheard of low price of nat gas. They are a bit riskier than some of the stocks you mention but worth a look, in my opinion. FSYS looks good but maybe a little pricey right now. I think it will be a long time (years?) before you see CHK as low as $13 again. But I would avoid CLNE as well - lots of insider selling.
Author rjm77me     Date September 8, 2009 21:24 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Thanks for comments by sporthunter and Nomadamon - specifically caution about CLNE
Author rjm77me     Date September 11, 2009 11:00 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Natural gas moved today along with CHK
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 11, 2009 12:31 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Spekkin o'gas... this is purty kewel and it's a wonder how the fokes running the compooterized gas trading desks at GS know eggZack'sly which o'these 2 ETF's have most morons left but ssscheck this in. UNG traded to 11.37 this moanin...it will not takeout that high. GAZ on the nudder hand traded to 15.20 and it will take out that high. Purty neat ...ainna? Nooow, the even keweler thang is what is gonna happen to the idiots who decide to hold these long positions past say ...oh...I dunno....3PM today? :-) Let's watch and all have some fun for a change. :-) As a sidenote to the CHK longs....you may "look like" CEO Aubrey McClennon...you "might" even act like him....but trust me... I know Aubrey McClennon. You sir... are no Aubrey McClennon *-) 3J
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