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Jonock
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Jonock's Blog : Safe Investing in Emerging Markets

Date December 3, 2009    Comments Comments (2)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (88)   
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Prudent investors realize that they must make investments in emerging markets if they hope to survive as an investors in the future. But with different book-keeping rules and shaky governments how can we be sure our moneys safe?

The emerging markets are playing a bigger and bigger part in the day to day economic roller coaster we call the stock market. There are some facts that need to be taken in to consideration in regards to the major emerging markets such as South America and China. Third world counties have a well educated, intelligent work force that is capable of building the highest quality manufactured products. Due to the reduced labor cost in these countries their products can be marketed at a more competitive price than similarly produced US and European goods. The best price and quality of goods will always dictate and rule the market. The most bang for your buck. A classic example over the last decade here in America is the majority of consumer goods purchased by Americans are manufactured in emerging market countries. This is a fact of life that will never change. It is the future we can't go back. The US “rust belt” will never make the world's steel ever again. The cotton mills of the south are gone forever. When we accept the real situation we can see that the large number of “jobs” lost sin America were not due to a recession but are as a result of a changing world, a transition. A transition brought on by progress, technological development and education of the world's masses. Americans must come to realize we need more more education and training in physics, mathematics and engineering if we wish to continue as the world leader in ideas, solutions and concept technology.

There is no doubt in my mind that the major future stock growth will be in emerging markets. If you are nervous in making major investment directly in emerging markets one way to reduce the risk of investing in emerging market equities is to go with the largest companies by sales or profit margin.

The world’s five largest companies by 2008 revenues are Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Walt-Mart (WMT), BP and Toyota (TM) according to Forbes. The oil giant Royal Dutch Shell’s revenue totaled $458B while Exxon Mobil raked in $425B. The world’s largest retailer Walt-Mart had total sales of $405B. Revenue matters since with high volumes companies can make billions even with a low profit margin. For example, though Walt-Mart’s sales exceeds $400B, its profit margin is just 3.3%. This translates to a cool $13.4B in profits. Despite the low-profit margin, Walt-Mart is one of the top companies in the world and the stock is owned by millions of investors.
These companies draw their profits from a global customer base. They are not dependent on the economic growth in any one local area or nation or even a continent for that matter. They are international, their market base includes every man, woman and child on the globe. You money is safe in these companies and you have the benefit of world exposure.
Tags : XOM   WMT   TM  

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Author InvestmentMAGE     Date December 3, 2009 13:09 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Also EEM, VWO




Jon Markman, contributor to MSN Money, says a recent report by Goldman Sachs shows how far and how fast China has come, and how far it could go.

Jim O'Neill, the Goldman Sachs supereconomist who's credited with coming up with the "BRIC" sobriquet for the key emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China eight years ago, released a private report to clients [recently] that outlines the stunning pace of transformation in these countries.

Even veteran observers were surprised by his conclusion that China's economy is on track to almost double that of the United States by 2050, at around $70 trillion in gross domestic product (GDP).

O'Neill figures the US economy will have grown to only $40 trillion by then, from $14 trillion today. Trailing after us, not by much, he figures, will be India, at $35 trillion, the European Union at $25 trillion and Brazil at $15 trillion. As a result, two billion people are expected to join the global middle class by 2030, or around 25% of the world's population. Chinese GDP has already grown by $3 trillion since 2001—the equivalent of seven years of India's GDP, three of Italy's and two of France's, and of one-third of the United States' output.

To get to the next level, it needs to grow by 10% annually to around $21 trillion. Because some of that can be accomplished with currency appreciation, China needs only about 6% annual growth to get there.

How is this kind of incredible growth possible? O'Neill says it can happen because the global credit crisis took them off "the drug" of a reliance on exports. In discovering domestic demand for cars, consumer goods, real estate, and the like, China is weaning itself off the need for a robust Western economy to sell into. Since January 2007, US and Chinese retail sales have gone in opposite directions, with the former down $40 billion and the latter up $60 billion, according to Goldman data.

O'Neill's analysis suggests China will grow 7.7% annualized from 2011 through 2020, versus 6.4% for India, 4.5% for Brazil, and 2.1% for the United States. In the subsequent ten years, from 2021 to 2030, he expects China to fall behind India, with a growth rate of 5.5% versus 6.4%.

In the past ten years, these trends were quietly brewing and easy to mock as overly optimistic, but the break in the Western economies has changed all that. Both investors and individuals will now be judged on how well they adapt.

The best way for investors to participate is through judicious use of exchange traded funds, such as Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock (NYSEArca: VWO). Although the most popular exchange traded fund focused on emerging markets is iShares Emerging Markets (NYSEArca: EEM), I prefer the virtually identical Vanguard fund (VWO) because of its lower cost.

MAGE
Author MightyMo     Date December 4, 2009 10:16 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Jonack and Mage

Good article and great comment. Thanks for the info.
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