Username Password
S&P 500: 1,317.11 Change: -0.21%
InvestmentMAGE
P&P Score: 99.93   Points: 625.30   Accuracy: 42.64%   Average Pick Score: 1.05   Annual Return: 11.43% (39.30% since 12/17/08)  

InvestmentMAGE's Blog : Trick or Treat?

Date October 27, 2010  Edited: October 27, 2010    Comments Comments (7)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (86)   
Bookmark and Share
Abuse this post  Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Share ThisShare This
BOOooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

We are rapidly approaching the (to me) scariest day of the year.

You know what I'm alluding to...

Ritual gatherings in multiple locations all over the USA.

Participants pretending to be someone they are not.

Strangers knocking on your door asking for favors.

You may spot a witch or perhaps someone dressed up in a nazi uniform

Of course you have realized by now,

I'm referring to...

...

...

...

...

the midterm elections.

...

...

If you are interested in the Political ramifications look here:

www.ft.com/midtermmap

or here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

or even here:

http://www.intrade.com/

I would like to discuss the near to mid term stock market ramifications.

First to paraphrase the stock traders almanac:

"bullishness seems to occur five days before and three days after midterm elections"

(This year Tuesday, October 26 to Friday, November 5)

"An impressive 2.7% has been the average gain during the eight trading days surrounding midterm election days since 1934"

Although the past is prologue, there is more involved here than history.*

This year has a wildcard thrown in.

What is unique this year?

On Wednesday, November 3 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will clarify (some what) the quantitative easing or more commonly called QE2.

I'm more of an investor than a trader (you can see that most of my picks are for up to a year), I think, based on history, it's time to start buying.

We are also beginning the third (and usually best) year of the Presidential Cycle.

Anticipate volatility on Wednesday Nov 3

Recommendation:

Buy on dips.

Sell Netflix NFLX

Sell Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, BRK.B

Good Trading,

MAGE

Remember, there are many investment Gurus, however there is only one InvestmentMAGE







*If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Warren Buffett
Tags : INVESTMENTMAGE   QE2   MIDTERM ELECTION   FOMC   BRK.A   BRK.B   NFLX  

7 Comment(s):

Author MightyMo     Date October 27, 2010 10:53 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
You write an excellent post ....then you go and ruin it by stating to sell NFLX and BRK.A.

Is your position on NFLX that it's gotten ahead of itself or that the competition will beat it out long term?. Right now, NFLX is the leader in streaming video with membership growing and starting to expand internationally. I see NFLX buying out other companies and branching out or being bought out itself. This company is a company with better ideas, first no penalty rentals online on DVD and now streaming video..do you think they're going to stop on their laurels like blockbuster...or did you write it just to annoy me.

Good hunting, again nice writeup.
Author dmonnie     Date October 27, 2010 12:01 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
yo Mage

if past history is not all there is to the game ?
where does it leave you with your historical prediction ?
"An impressive 2.7% has been the average gain during the eight trading days surrounding midterm election days since 1934"

since predictions are free ...i say ...gold next target $ 1600.00
Author InvestmentMAGE     Date October 27, 2010 12:26 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Hey Mo,

Thanks for the comment.

NFLX:
I love Netflix as a customer, however, I don't think their business model is sustainable.

Hulu is starting a premium channel. Also, rumor is that Amazon is going to start providing streaming video, not to mention Itunes.

Trees don't grow to the moon.

http://themarketsareclosed.blogspot.com/2010/06/net-profits-nflx.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Short-Stop-Drowning-in-tsmp-3776318721.html?x=0&.v=1

BRK.A
Buffett's succession process is as clear as mud.

No one – not even Mr Buffett – can hope to replicate Warren Buffett

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/559326a4-e0df-11df-87da-00144feabdc0.html

http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/InvestmentMAGE/3104455/
Author Burtman     Date October 27, 2010 14:21 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Hey Mage,

Where's that October suprise you were callin for? We only have 2 trading days left after today.
Author InvestmentMAGE     Date October 27, 2010 14:37  Edited: October 27, 2010 by InvestmentMAGE Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Hey Burtman,

19 Oct "The stock market suffered its worst single-session drop in two months as market participants shrugged off a big batch of better-than-expected earnings and the dollar surged."

MAGE
Author Burtman     Date October 29, 2010 07:26 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
What? The market didn't even drop 200 points that day. You call that a surprise? You're in some real trouble the next 6 months then.
Author InvestmentMAGE     Date October 25, 2011 10:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
Please report this as abuse only if you believe it violates People And Picks  Terms of Use
You must log in to send an abuse report.
Well, looks like I was a little early on Netflix, looks like they had their October surprise in 2011.

MAGE
Want to comment on this post? Sign up now. It's FREE!
Already registered? Log In.
Sponsored Links