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S&P 500: 1,986.51
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Vet67to82
P&P Score: 99.52   Points: 73.64   Accuracy: 73.60%   Average Pick Score: -2.76   Annual Return: 22.85% (108.37% since 11/25/09)  

Vet67to82's Blog : AlphaDog Stocks

Date April 27, 2010    Comments Comments (7)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (137)   
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April 02, 2010 – RELATED TICKERS: CHK , MU , PDLI

I strongly believe in fundamentals first and foremost.

I ran the fundamentals, today, on lots of companies, looking for AlphaDog Stocks ... stocks that have an ABOVE AVERAGE Risk/Reward Ratio, and that'll return a percentage that I expect will beat the S&P 500's return.

(1) MU came out "near" to the top of the list:

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $10.37

1 year target....: $14.18

Potential Reward: 36.74%

Foward P/E ...: 7.32

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 0.87

Price/Book Value ....: 1.70


(2) Compuware Corp. (CPWR)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 8.40

1 year target....: $ 10.25

Potential Reward: 22.024%

Foward P/E ...: 18.2

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 1.20

Price/Book Value ....: 2.15

(3) PDL BioPharma, Inc. (PDLI)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 6.21

1 year target....: $7.67

Potential Reward: 23.51%

Foward P/E ...: 4.64

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 0.21

Price/Book Value ....: NA

... and this one doesn't pay quarterly, but does pay "special" dividends slated for 2010 $1.00 (16.10% yield)

(4) Exxon Mobile (XOM)

Closing price (4/1): 67.61

1 year target: 78.31

Potential Reward: 16%

F P/E: 9.38

PEG: 0.81

Price/Book: 2.86

The reward isn't great, but based on EPS analysis with the addition of XTO and historic earnings they could be worth $90 in a couple years.

(5) Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 23.64

1 year target....: $34.71

Potential Reward: 46.827%

Foward P/E ...: 8.49

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 2.93

Price/Book Value ....: 1.35

and Dividend $0.30 (1.30% yield)

(6) Accelrys Inc. (ACCL)

Sector: Technology
Industry: Business Software & Services

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 6.16

1 year target....: $ 7.00

Potential Reward: 13.636%

Foward P/E ...: 19.12

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 1.03

Price/Book Value ....: 1.97

Dividend ....: NA


Tags : CPWR   PDLI   XOM   CHK   ACCL  

7 Comment(s):

Author Vet67to82     Date April 27, 2010 12:18 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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If you look around, an economic rebound -- IS -- in process ... China is sucking up raw materials from all across the planet ... the only way to get those huge quantities, economically, across vast oceans ... is shipping. Dry bulk ... for things like iron ore. Hmmmm ... DRYS? Tankers for crude and Liquidfied Natural Gas (LNG), Hmmm NAT, DHT and GASS ??

DHT Holdings, Inc. (DHT)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 3.92

1 year target....: $4.43

Potential Reward: 13.01%

Foward P/E ...: 8.95

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: NA

Price/Book Value ....: 0.99

Dividend ....: NA

This DHT story is in its long term contracts for double expenses ... so while other companies may have lost money during the global melt down ... DHT earned money. What zeroed out was the "surplus" in shared dayrates over the spot market dayrates which I am confident will return with the global economic recovery ... toward the end of 2010 into 2011, and 2012.

Author Vet67to82     Date April 27, 2010 12:19 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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In running the fundamentals, sometimes, numbers come up short ... take

TICC Capital Corp (TICC)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 6.59

1 year target....: $ 4.12

Potential Reward: -39.30%

Foward P/E ...: 10.74

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 2.27

Price/Book Value ....: 0.79

Dividend ....: $0.60 (9.10% YIELD)

... This says SOMETHING is out of whack ... 2 + 2 does NOT = 4 ... further investigation is necessary.

Soooo, I took another look at the TICC report and the numbers ... everything seems on the up and up.

One note ... "The primary components of
our expenses were approximately $1.1 million in investment advisory
fees and approximately $413,000 in professional fees for valuation,
legal and auditing services."

Yet, the report says the numbers are unaudited: "

The following financial statements are unaudited and without footnotes. Readers who would like additional information should obtain our Form 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2009, and subsequent reports on Form 10-Q as they are filed. "

Okay, that's an Investor Relations (IR) question ... I would be asking. B'cuz ... which is it?

Author Vet67to82     Date April 27, 2010 12:20 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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In running the fundamentals, sometimes, numbers come up short ... take

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $42.91

1 year target....: $ 32.80

Potential Reward: -23.561%

Foward P/E ...: 14.37

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 0.72

Price/Book Value ....: 8.94

Dividend ....: NA

... This says SOMETHING is out of whack ... 2 + 2 does NOT = 4 ... further investigation is necessary. The PEg and Price per Book value ... says we may be " overpaying " for growth .... or that the market is "too soon" on its pricing.

SOOOO, we need to go back and look at the numbers, at the company reports, etc., to see if the growth is sustainable



Author Vet67to82     Date April 27, 2010 12:21 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Apple Inc (AAPL)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 235.00

1 year target....: $ 261.39

Potential Reward: 11.230%

Foward P/E ...: 20.10

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 1.00

Price/Book Value ....: 5.95

Dividend ....: NA

This is clearly a "Growth" story in the pricing, I should say "underpricing" of the fantastic job APPLE has done in rolling out products consumers want. Though I personally think Apple could've picked a better name than the iPad for their newest product ...

Author Vet67to82     Date April 27, 2010 12:22 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Many shipping companies trade "ship trips" on the spot market while others have time charter contracts that provide for profit sharing when the spot rate exceeds the time charter rate.

There are industry specific shipping indicii, called the Baltic Indicii that track rates shippers are paying/receiving in the spot market. For crude tankers ... there is the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI). There is also a "clean" tanker index.

Tankers carrying crude can't be used to carry jet fuel, or biofuels, because any crude residue would contaminate those products. So, knowing what the Baltic Indicii (a product of the Baltic Exchange) are doing will give you an insight as to whether crude shipping companies (like DHT, SFL. FRO, VLCCF, DRYS, GASS, etc) are going to report better earnings.

When shipping co's report better earnings ... the stock price goes up. But, here's another important item: Analyst UPgrades. The shipping sector analysts are watching the BDTI go up. AND it IS going UP. Pretty soon, analysts will Upgrade individual shipping co's on the EXPECTATION the earnings are going to increase. Those upgrades will also drive (gap up is NICE) individual co's prices up! Look at DHT's recent stock price action and look to see if its price movement was BDTI Index driven, news driven, or if there were any upgrades.

Pay attention to the market, the sector info, your company's info ... and you can beat the analysts EVERY time.

Check out Capital Link Shipping's website:

http://shipping.capitallink.com/

Author Vet67to82     Date April 27, 2010 12:24 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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So far, I've laid out (10) with:

AAPL ACCL CHK CPWR DHT MU PDLI TICC VRX and (XOM )

The economy has forced people to pinch pennies ... and with the jobs market, on the mend, but, still not well ... I expect companies like the one below to continue to benefit from people's "changed habits" for a year to two years beyond a "complete economic recovery:

Big Lots Inc (BIG)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $36.22

1 year target....: $41.30

Potential Reward: 14.025%

Foward P/E ...: 11.84

PEgrowth (PEg) ratio ...: 1.11

Price/Book Value ....: 2.97

Dividends ...: NA



4/1/2010: 36.82 +0.40 +1.10%

After Hours: 36.82 unch/unch Vol. 9,785

Author Vet67to82     Date May 19, 2010 12:09 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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5/18/2010 ... resistance in tn the S&P500 seems to be 1170 -1172 area ...

Well. since the well blowout in the gulf ... gov''t is now leaning toward nat gas ... and I think you could begin to see a push to get big rig trucking using nat gas ... and more of our "larger" vehicles ... it makes great sense as a transition fuel and great sense as a way to lower the USA trade deficit ...

ALSO ... " sovereign " wealth funds like CHK ...

Chk is using the money to pay down debt which will (1) reduce interest expense, and (2) increase earnings ... and I agree with them and CHK's CEO .. CHK' s market cap of around 14.2 B is way too low ... should be 56 to 57 Billion ... so CHK is on sale BIG TIME due to nat gas pricing ...

XOM is buying XTO now ... because XTO is on sale -- quite a deal for the assets

... very few stocks left from the " 2008 global market meltdown " that have that VALUE ...


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