TickerBandit's Blog : The market is set for ....

TB, did you see the CNN article this morning? http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/26/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

It basically said the same thing that I said yesterday, the market is overbought but indictations are still good and the mood will probably be set by institutional investors once they get back from vacation and we see an increase in volume during Q4. Will there be broad market participation on volume or are we looking at more of the same? The rally has been led by financials for the most part and that is a positive, but we will need to see broad market participation in something other than zombie stocks and bailed out financials for it to have merit.

I missed the doug kass article and investor's intelligence but they are two that I sometimes follow, thanks I will look.

Careful Chemo Slobbie....yer gonna whoopsaw yerself into whooplash! :-) It really is hilarious watching you werk, TB. Since I have taken the time to watch you operate I must say...you are quite the intrusting character. I know I wouldn want Mighty Mouth as "the trigger man" at a nuculer power plant cuz he'd be setting off the air raid sireens 3 or 4 times a day as he is "obviously" prone to bouts of EXTREME panic. :o You on the udder hand jist can't seem ta figger thangs out...cept you know fo sho you only like crap trading at EXTREME tops that "looks like" it is getting ready to break out. :-) I'm glad the sheeple are getting to see just how dangerous that strategery is. *-) 3J

JC,

Thanks for that link. As I ready I couldn't help notice the commentary filled with little half-truths. And I do find that encouraging.

While I find the thesis to be correct "Speculation is alive and well", it has that pooh-pooh attitude I love to see when I am long equity. First off, Volume is not wafer thin. Its running above last years levels by my method of counting. Perhaps enough to account for all the 4 wounded horsemen's volume.

His account truly does not reflect the broadness of the rally in price. It is truly remarkable. Its not the 4 wounded horsemen I am worried about. The large volume of trading in them could be perceived as a positive.

3J,

The thesis still holds only now we are in market hours. If we reverse and make new highs, that will likely continue all day :-)

Jeez, I "hope" so. I mean...the markets are DEFINITELY gonna reverse to the upside. I'm just "hoping" the trading desk at GS holds thangs up thur into the close. I just finished closing off 4 pages of pix ya know. I need to get them thur pix back as close to the tops as possibull...and then some mo pix besides. "Luckily" fo me all I gotsta do is ssscheck the daily list of new pix the locals are making and thurs ALWAYS some GRRRREAT new chorts out thur that I never even tracked befo. And on top o'that thur...somma the chit that didn qualify for Sim play is now becoming available. BONT is playable now. Mack brought RTK into the mix. I got FRZ up just yestermaday. I'm "hoping" this future .20 centavos stock is ready >>> VION. Looka thatn right thur! LOL BTW, you are only gonna move on EGY ifn it closes belowst 4.80 right? just thot I'd axe since it is now mo than likely on its way to taking out "the numba" I mentioned. You DO remember "the numba" I "hope"....gulp! :o 3J

TB

Don't pay attention to the village idiot...

Mighty Mouth...ifn ya need the panic button...here it is >>> O LOL Howza come ya panicd outta POT so soon? The setup looks similar to OPEN ifn ya axe me. No biggie...I'll get the pig back up thru $98 dallahs so ya kin git back in :-) 3J

No it looks like it may close lower. I'm cool with that. I'd like to see the SPX 1008ish. If we get a close there, my guess is that investor sentiment will easily exceed 50% bearish :-). I've yet to see that many bears be correct :-). So likely in that case I buy the swing position tomorrow.

Hey and check this out. We have two white knights on the 15 minute interval, but not enough to get me to buy :-(.

SPX needs to take out 1016.20 low bafo ya buy anything or else you will be making the same Miss Stakes you always make. You will be buying the rally that "might" even take out the high. But you will end up with a loss you won't recover from before Mighty Mouth panics out again. Intrusting how Mighty Mouth panics outta the ones he should hold and holds the ones he should panic out of...isn't it? He is trapped by his own grossly over-inflated "Simage" I'm afeard. :-) 3J

3J,

Drive her down 3J. Or are you all in? :-)

You know of course, you can't affect the market by just having a position. You will have to do something with that position in order to effect an outcome on the markets. :-)

Since you are all in "on the highs", you'd best hope everyone else has funds to assist you and sees a need to help ya out :-).

3J Bont and EK look good, so does SNDA and PWRD. You still don't like YMI ?

you can try and make your stinkin 10-15% with a ton o risk, or you can go long for a double.

Jeez, .. we can lead ya to water, but you just won't drink.

Just send beer,

Cheers

Owl

I made my commentary whenst I closed out me SKF long....and I already toldja I wasn't gonna say a thang whenst the top came in on the SPX cuz I want you to be the one to "acknowledge" that a downtrend had begun.:-) I will say this however....since the time the ole FAZoo put in a trendlow up thur at 12.00 -9.53 (120-95.30) I have made ALL the "correct" moves to put meself in a position to benefit greatly. :-) In the meantime I'm gonna let you "struggle with the markets" and I will simply make small adjusto's to my PeePee until it bees time to just relax. I call it "worry-free inbesting" and I highly suggest it ...but for some reason you seem to want to put yerself into a position of high anxiety. Looka right cheeeya fer instunce....the SPX still didn't take out 1016.20...it's now at 1018.85...which makes both chortin n longin the genrul market a "no play" Yestermaday I guess you went chort to "hedge" your other Miss Stakes...and it is quite possibull your hedge will end up being a Miss Stake. Of course not quite as big of a Miss Stake as Mighty Mouth's decision to buy STEC above $39 and sell calls to help limit his downside. Botha them thur moves "might" just term into BIG mistakes even whenst (not if) the market rallies. I never want to put meself into the positions you fellahs do. Too noive racking fo me. :-) 3J

I would chort YMI right cheeya at 2.07 and I "hope" it is playable like BONT is...which I already added to e list. I'd wait for EK to take out 5.40 foist....as soon as I'm finished with this post I will put SNDA up as a chort in your honor, yer honor. I already have PWRD chort but I'm wreckin it twill trade thru $41...not nearly enuff ova move for me to make an adjusto at this time since the $34 dallah low from 2 Mon's ago "clearly" goes bye bye ifn you look at the 10 day chart. :-) 3J

Otay, Owl, I just put SNDA up in yer honor. I will hold YMI for more than a 10% gain...just so you are happy. I'll reply right cheeeya whenst I close it out. Anything else? :-) 3J

OK guys,

I may be incorrect to do so, but as of a few moments ago, I went long the swing position.

Ooooh well, TB. "looks like" you are now o-fish-ally stopped outta yer "hedgies" whilst yer losers you were hedging for are still down.....werser yet....you are too noiuvous to even consider turning the thang around and going long! :o Sux! ...donut? :-) 3J

LOL I stand correckted....you actually did go long. What I meant to say is that it's gonna suck ifn the trading desk at GS turns the thang around during the "traditional" 1PM "sell hour" and they take out SPX 1016.20! LOL You are waaaay too EdGY...panic button perhaps? >>> O >>> :-) 3J

Tb,
I would agree that the strength in the 4 horemen could be viewed as a broad market strength because it demonstrates an appetite for risk, however, if you look today for example the market is led by AIG. AIG is a POS zombie company. FNM is another example, C. There is an appetite for risk, but not an appetite for prudency, HCBK is a laggard, BBT. GMGMQ has doubled since mid July. USB, and other stocks that escaped the meltdown are being punished. I'm not saying BBT and USB totally escaped, but look at the bailed out, govy-ment owned stocks. What do you think it means exaclty? Taxpayer gonna come out on top on this one?

JC,

I'm not sure what it means. I agree that the market seems to have thrown caution to the wind. I feel like that's what I am doing at times ... and yet ... I do not want to participate short ... so what other choice do I have?

I found myself yesterday contemplating this totally fictional account with Blankfein at the oval office:

Blankfein: Yes Mr President, everything is going according to plan. We anticipate that most banks that borrowed TARP funds will be paying them back.

Obama: How can you be so sure Blankfein?

Blankfein: It's human nature Mr. President. We've carefully constructed the charts to look a certain way. People like to believe myths and such. They are afraid and they will take unusual risks when they think they can't lose.

Obama: But how can you be sure it won't backfire?

Blankfein: Please don't worry Mr. President we have everything under control. Kass is on board now. Funny how we still have him shaking in his boots from last Fall. That was a tough pill to swallow for him Mr. President when we made say he saw light at the end of the tunnel during the Lehman crisis. Cramer is adding his support also. Tomorrow we have Marketwatch putting out a headline on how the banking crisis is getting worse. We are going to get them short, you can count on that.

Obama: I don't know Blankfein, this all sound so contrived to me. Would it just be easier to just tax them for it?

Blankfein: Trust me Mr. President, you won't have to do that for a while. Right now its time to collect voluntary taxes. Trust me, it will work.

Obama: OK, so is there anything you need me to do or say?

Blankfein: We will let you know Mr. President, until then, I'd best be getting back to work.

Obama: Good work Blankfein. Get some rest, work can wait for the morning.

Blankfein: Thank you Mr. President, I will do that (leaves the oval office)

Hey CJC, did you see my target for BONT? >>> .69 centavos :-) But I'm wreckin I'll be able ta getit to .60 centavos. I'm sho you will be happy bout that thur. *-) 3J

TB,
Are Kass and Cramer bearish now?

Yes, JC. Kass called "The Top" not "a top". Cramer supports him.

We are 3 S&P points from putting every short entry these past 5 days underwater.

But we are also less than 10 points away from putting the longs underwater....anna I ainna talkin bout for 5 dayze none neither. :-) 3J

But we are also less than 10 points away from putting the longs underwater....anna I ainna talkin bout for 5 dayze none neither. :-) 3J

So close ... so close ... and yet so far ... :-)

That reminds of this Frankie Valli hit ...

Troo enuff...or the Tom Petty song...The Waiting...a MUCH better tune ifn ya axe me. :-) BTW, lemme be so bold as to sssplain what needs to happen fo "the proper" setup on the SPX top...befo it actually happens of course :-) SPX just traded to 1033.32....it'll need to pullback in heeya to "perhaps" the 1025 area. The final rampola into the close "could be" the one. But my "guess" is that thangs won't git intrusting till tamarrah...a Fri no less. :-) SPX now at 1031.04...let's see. "Hopefully" I get a "how'd you know?" this time thur, TB since every sangle one o'these calls I have made the past 2 daze concerning the VIX n SPX has been spot on. I'll be waiting...uhhhm, it's the "hardest" part ...as you may already know. :-) 3J

What does Kass point to to indicate "the" top?

1029.83...oh the power within me! :-) 3J

CJC, I didn't catch the entire Kass interview but he did mention that "one o'the thangs to look for" would be right cheeeya at this vey site! :o He said the top would be confirmt when Mighty Mouth fails to panic out of any longs on the open. I dunno....I doubt that's the ONLY thing to look for but it is definutly one thing to look for. :-) 3J

TB,
If the Dow drops to 9000, should it be bought or sold?

JC,

That's an interesting question. I wouldn't like to see the Dow go there in the next 3 trading days. I think it would be particularly bearish and I would be very surprised to see it do that. I think a more likely scenario is a rally which ultimately fails and a deep dip, perhaps below 9000.

JC, once this rally fails, I will not be so bullish. I expect there will be weakness, perhaps a couple of weeks, but I think I will refrain from going short except for windows I find amenable for it. I anticipate that that weakness will base and ultimately a rally will ensue. That rally and the market internals during that rally are going to tell us alot about the health of the market. I don't have the ability to predict that. Basically I'm going to react to the markets as they unfold.

Hmmmm...intrusting. I "guess" the market internals were purty crappy today. I thunk I'd have a chitload of new pix to add but it's as ifn only the finanshills, the housing stocks, and the goldies did anything today atall. Intrusting indeedy...that Manny is one "tricky" sumbeitch he is. :-) TB, congrats on not having to make a decision on EGY fo one mo day. :-) 3J

JC,

I just a saw a video where Cramer is now saying to buy the dip (basically saying he disagrees with Kass now). So there you have it. Cramer says buy the dip that is coming and Kass says short now (saying he is very comfortable with his shorting).

3J and TB

Let's see, 3J you were pouting off about STEC awhile back..saying something like lower high and higher lows,,,as always you got it backwards (which is normal for someone who is backward looking),, instead it has been higher higher and lower lows..
TB, by the by..STEC is up about 10 points (39.42 aftermarket) since the insiders sold their 9 million shares (29.76). I'll take the ten points and say I was right.

MightyMo,

As far as I am concerned, the price is talking in STEC. But I would like to correct the record.

Your first crow of STEC was on the eve of their earnings. So I am going to give you 35.22 for that one which was the open that morning.

Two days later you said they will be placing shares at 31 but expect to pay 2 dollars more than that (which was totally wrong but probably made people who bought at 35.22 feel confident that insiders selling meant nothing). I'm going to give you that days close. I went short that day for a scalp and said that STEC would trade with a $28 handle. So I am going to take the close that day.

As I predicted, STEC did not trade 2 dollars more than 31 for very long and traded down to 28.35. So I am going to say I was right about that. Furthermore, because you were down 19.50% you were wrong on a number of counts. You were suggesting to everyone that holding a ticker with that kind of loss was a good thing and that you "could be trusted" and "knew that you knew" more than the markets. I'm sorry Mo, I don't trust people who say those things.

That said, you have bought put protection twice since then so I figure that must have cost you at least 3 or 4 dollars per share. Presently the price is 4 dollar higher than your two mentions so I figure for that wild ride you are up about $1 dollar :-).

But it isn't over yet. I actually think that STEC will go higher :-). The question I would pose for you is this. Are these kinds of drawdowns going to be the norm for you? And if so, Is this really what you know you know it takes to succeed?

Mighty Mouth, foist n foremost I wanted you to know that I am glad the SPX will open higher this moanin cuz I definutely didn wanna see you panic on the open today. Somma yer new picks are down "almost close to a tad" and you Shirley woulda panicd out ifn the SPX went down to take out that 1016.20 "nonconfirmt" set jist yestermaday.....which it'll "probly" do bafo the day is out anyoo. Yes....thur will be plenty o'time for you to panic but I doan sssuspect you will panic outta STEC anyhoo. I said you will be holding it whenst (not if) it makes a new 52 week low (or at least a 50% loss since your "obvious" goal is to "be like Cramer"). The diffrunce betwixt now and then is the fact that you won't be harping on what I said quite as much as ya do now....herdly atall actually. :-) 3J

TB

I don't know why you are still attempting to throw a positive into a negative. You asked me once to admit wrong on a different matter. It works both ways.

I am way up on STEC having purchased it at 4 different price points. One of the puts (aug 25) was .40 at purchase time. . One of the written calls (aug 35) went unexercised and I locked in the profit. Now another written call (40) will get exercised but I still get the locked in profit on it. I only write one call at a time so I am still hold the majority of my stock. My next purchase I expect will be around 43.50, 44 and will write another call and probably locate and find a cheap short term put. Now anything can happen. If the reason I purchased STEC changes, yes, 3J I will 'panic' and sell out...however my wording for it is not 'panic' but being prudent and locking in profit. If I am wrong at that time I can always re-purchase.

By the way, when I wrote the STEC article it was at 34 and went to 35.22 the next session.

Footnote: Edited at 8 minutes after the open..ho hum, looks like another high for STEC today...

I'm not.

I have been nothing but positive, since I agreed to give you a week. When it was down 19%, I said nothing. I just want the truth to be told, thats all. If you had treated the trip to $28 and change as it should have been treated. Primarily, that you neither predicted it nor anticipated it, nor used it to offset your puts. In other words, you were wrong then. Had you mentioned that, I would have said nothing.

Let's just get the facts straight. Meanwhile, congratulations on STEC, I am not wishing you ill as you are me.

TB, I doubt you sold "trading" longs at the top o'the move today...and ifn you did I doubt you went chort :-) did you make any moves so fer? BTW, that POS that be EGY actually showed its foist sign of life since ya longed it. I realize you are a "lifer by choice" on it...so it really doan matter as fer as yer concerned being that you only want to daytrade the chit that'll git ya whoopsawed n everythang. But I jist wanted to let you know that I'm on it. :-) 3J

LOL Hilarious! I mentioned VION yestermaday and "regretfully" it twasn't playable right cheeeya >>> :-( Looka what happened to those idiots that bot that frenzy yestermaday. LOL NE1 who is longing ANY of the mortgage insurance stocks like PRS, PMI, ABK, TGIC, etc etc "might" wanna ssscheck out that chart just so you will know what is in store for you on the initial move down. *-) Owl, you "might" wanna ssscheck that chart out too ifn you are planning on holding this POS right cheeeya past today >>> SCSS. :-) 3J

TB

You're making things up on STEC. I never said STEC will go up the next day after the insiders announced their intentions. I've been wrong on many things, STEC isn't one of them. The thing you've been WRONG on is your ongoing comments that insiders always sell at the top and you inferred strongly that was the case with STEC. You were dead wrong.

I think we need to end this conversation. 3J is right, you won't admit when you're wrong.

I'll talk next about STEC only when there is news on the stock and it's not going to be directed to you but to those on this site who read my blogs. I expect to continue to play STEC but am now looking forward to finding a new STEC. End of conversation. I won't respond to your next comment about STEC unless i need to defend an incorrection.

Mo,

Anyone with a clear head can see through your comment above. I need not comment further about it.

TB, howza come you are "hiding" from the markets today? :-) Yestermaday you were quick to let us know whenst you changed from chort to long....today? Well, I realize you got stopped out of yer long position with a loss or no gain....did ya chort yet? Let's not argue here sheeple....I'm the ONLY one that is gonna be absolutely right in the end...we all know that already. Let's tawk markets! Whataya say, TB? :-) Oh! SPX down 6.66! Can I at least get a YIKERS outta ya?! :-) Howza come I'm the only one who "appears to be" having fun all the time? LOL 3J

3J,

I'm not hiding. I have been doing things. I did sell some things and I bought also early with swing money which didn't work out. I did scalp a chort trade and am long again swing money.

Since I do pay attention to price I am concerned about the where the market is trading. That said, I did buy at a significant support level and think the market is too bearishly positioned already to break through it. That's the theory anyway :-).

I am seeing some other things which confirm that one should pay particular attention to failure of supporting trend of the current rally from 8-17 .

Oh...OK...I doan know what to heyell you just said but that's "OK" too. Like I said the nudder day....I gots thangs unner control. And my promise to you is that I am STILL gonna make it reeeeal eeeeasy for you to tell that the downtrend has begun. Just hang in thur and gootube whilst you are waiting cuz as you know >>> The waiting is the hardest part.*-) 3J

Do that thur, 3J, anna I'll get on board with you.

Well...close...but no seeegar. I didn sssthink this wuz gonna be "the" Fri ...not with that thur VIX setup going into taday. I SIRIously doubt thur will be much selling early next week either so it "looks like" everyone "might" hasta wait till next Fri's jobs report. I hope yuns doan mind. EGY closed belowst 4.80 I see. TB, I thunk you said you would give some "insight"about what you wuz gonna do whenst that happened. I said it "would" happen ifn you remember. :-) The GOOG news is that it signald buy in the last 15 minutes o'trading and then it began to selloff...with no SIRIous damage so fer. Ifn it twas me I would actually be "hoping" for more selling so I could make my "initial" buy belowst "the numba" I mentioned...ass-ooming of course I would even consider buying a stock that is destined to be trading sub $2 dallahs at "sometime" in the future I mean. You DO remember "the numba" I mentioned....I "hope" ....gulp! :o 3J

3j,

I said if EGY closed below 4.80 I would question whether it should be held. And I am questioning it :-). It closed below that and below the trend supporting the recent series of 4 higher lows. I also said that I would likely give it a couple of days. I want to see at least 2 consecutive closes below trend of support before I consider closing the trade. I typically like to buy reversal at the trend-line and this trendline has been very reliable in the past to turn prices. So I am going to give it that opportunity.

I think today's softness springs from continued worry over China. I see China and oil (and other commodities) at a cross roads here. For China its second trip to the 50 MA and for oil pinched in a Inverse H&S. I figure this will resolve next week. Either the we are in a global bear market beginning next week or China saves the day (to include the oilies). Should be an interesting week :-)

TB, I thought you'd like some of these selected Kass articles since April. I picked mostly his bearish calls.

Adding to Financial Shorts (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
Names include Franklin Resources, Capital One, American Express and T. Rowe Price.
09:49AM 05/05/09

Yell and Roar and Sell Some More (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
Investors should begin repositioning portfolios with more cash and less flash.~For most investors, it is now too dangerous to be long and also too dangerous to be short.~Now is a good time to watch the markets and have a balanced view.
07:27AM 05/05/09

Greed Replaces Fear (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
Take advantage of the strength, and reposition more conservatively.
03:37PM 05/04/09

Testing the Waters on an IYR Short (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
I have begun to make a short offering in the REIT index this morning.
11:08AM 05/04/09

Panic Buying Sets In (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
Beware of this emotional buying.
10:04AM 05/04/09

Why I'm Bullish on REITs (RealMoney.com $)
By Doug Kass
05:06PM 04/19/09

Adding to Short Side (RealMoney.com $)
By Doug Kass
09:06AM 04/17/09

Long the SKF for a Trade (RealMoney.com $)
By Doug Kass
09:42AM 04/16/09

Added to STT Short (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
Goldman Sachs' weak securities business foretells pressures for State Street in that arena.
11:56AM 04/14/09

Scaling Out of IYR Long (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
I am scaling out of my iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate (IYR) long rental.
11:12AM 04/14/09

Selling Premium (RealMoney Silver $)
By Doug Kass
I am selling (naked) a package of May and June $85/$86 SPDRs calls.
07:24AM 04/14/09

JC,

I appreciate that. Thanks. He certainly has a predisposition to position bearishly. Way more than me. Let me say this though. I have much respect for him. He's smarter than I am, that I know.

JC, I don't think we return to the type of market we had in 2008 for many years perhaps never in my lifetime. I don't mean I'm not bearish the next 1 to 3 years. What I mean is, I don't think it is likely that we will have that level of volatility and panic IMHO. We've been there and done that. My sense is that declines, if and when they are forthcoming, will be orderly and persistent with many bulls buying the weakness.

Regarding the current sentiment picture, a lot has been said about the Investor's intelligence survey of financial advisers being above 50%. Now I do consider that troublesome for the bulls but not nearly as much as other indications are troublesome for bears, particularly, in the near term. One must remember, that an adviser wants to "look like" he's been long the "whole time". So saying he is bullish seems to do that. (It's similar to Mo wanting to "look like" he bought STEC at $29 instead of $35 before earnings). But what this tells us is that most anyone can look at the chart of prices and say "I should have been long, this is a bull market". So I think the effects of adviser sentiment are slower to take hold in the marketplace than data which reflects the current positioning of participants who are actually in the market.

Based on that data and my interpretation of it, I am of the opinion that it likely that weakness will be bought in the near term and that bearish positioning is likely to increase in such cases by small speculators. This is not conducive to a downtrend and feeds an uptrend, so I just can not feel comfortable with short positioning yet except for scalps and hedging purposes. That would change if I saw indications of capitulation of bearish positioning.

TB,
51.6% bullish advisors doesn't seem high to me because historically advisors tend to be more bullish than bearish. Just like when you see 3J finally join the crowd and become bull we would be at an extreme :) The indicator becomes more important when you reach extreme levels which would indicate group think. To me it looks like the market is still trending but perhaps the stops are getting tighter.

Also with Kass I selected his most bearish articles and he was both bearish and bullish depending on the day. I don't know what kind of system he uses but he tends to flipflop on a daily basis.

Actually, CJC, you would be much bettr off gettin yer clues from Mighty Mouth. He will "whoopsaw" himself into whooplash every single time the news creates a market. Today it twas his new China chit CHU that he panicd out of. I'll remain "steady towards the inevitable" :-) 3J