TickerBandit's Blog : Latest entries

It's always great to see bearishness top 50% like it did last week and these kinds of sentiment readings are often followed by persistent rally. So were do we stand today?

Actually I think it could go either way. But I lean slightly to further correction (meeting the criteria of significant correction). The reason is the continued divergence in the market as this rally has progressed. While I do think we will see market continue to diverge through the remainder of the bull market, the p…

Some 2 months ago, Shanghai lost the trend which supported prices since November 2008. It's spent a month and a half below its 50 MA and so its been, it seems, in its own little bear market.

Today, Shanghai reopened after a long holiday. I was a little concerned about it but was pleased to wake this morning to find it closed up almost 5%. Below is chart of the Shanghai composite. I had to draw in the last day's trade because charting seems to be delayed by a day on Yahoo's daily interva…

... Eliza's education fund. Holds promise. The ticker is ATSI. She's only now becoming profitable with top line growing. Maybe something you'd risk in. I don't own any but I think I will buy in the coming days or weeks.

Hope she is doing well. JP has a cold and its really giving my wife a scare on account of H1N1. He has no fever though just a mighty snotty nose :-).

Recently, Owltrades was discouraged by this. It was obvious to him ... I think ... that there was a miscalculation in Levene's return and annualized score. I thought I would shed some light on that issue.

First let me say that Levene (and to Levene), whether a novice or not, has done an excellent job at P&P. There are some things one can take from his trading/investing and put into practice.

First, he trades little. For most people, and often ultimately even for traders a majority o…

... do you all know that we can't close picks?

Hi all, I take it everyone had a good week :-). One thing you will notice is that I got involved in little banter this week. It certainly pays to concentrate on work. For those who follow my going's on, you will notice that my portfolio score grew by over 9 percentage points this week. :-) In an effort to maintain the growth of that score I did some thinning this weekend and isolated the "detention list" (which are those which will either graduate to trenders or get canned.

Let me also …

There is alot of talk about Elliot wave counts and such and bears really want to "ride that next wave down to the end of humanity". If you are so inclined then listen up. You had best be patient.

Early in the rally from July, I recognized this rally was more than "run of the mill" At the time, I didn't think it would be this good or that the breadth indication would wind up this favorable. But as they keep coming in ... one thing is clear to me. This kind of market uniformity is typical…

... more crashing up! :-)

In twelve minutes we get the GDP report :-) and unemployment claims.

Don't know what they will be but .... the market is primed with chort sellers and the sentiment negative. It just seems so absolutely clear that we have topped. First there is Doug Kass's top call and the Investor's intelligence survey right? I have alot of respect for Doug and I listen to him. I happen to agree with him about risk/reward.

Even so, there is nothing internally wrong with …

Mack you said if we get two consecutive closes above SPX 1018 on heavier volume then we would officially be in Cloud Cuckoo land. We got the prices but I don't know if you are satisfied with the volume.

If this purdixshun comes true, another feather goes into the cap that's beginning to look like and Indian warrior's headdress. :-)

Below is an example of the most recent failure to finish a Megaphone formation from wave 4. We know once the Megaphone is completed, that there is a 90% probability of a lower low to follow a lower high. But what is the probability of the formation completing from wave 4?

The failure rate of completion from wave 4 I haven't found any documentation of.

Naturally if wave 5 is completed that is a sign of extreme weakness so it makes perfect sense that it will be followed by more weakness.…