TickerBandit's Blog : Latest entries

... but that doesn't mean it won't get cheaper still. I rolled out of my March collar puts this morning with limit orders. I never see collar puts as a hedge. They are a speculative trade financed by the covered calls. Anyway the market has sold off enough that I thought it was time back-off of downside speculation take gains on put option part of the position I held since December. The remaining covered calls still offer some level of protection and they will be shed when a bona-fide re…

.... am I better than the probabilities?

It was years ago that I came to the conclusion that I was indeed no better than the probabilities. And that at the best ...

It rather easy to get drawn into the delusion that one is better than the market. This egocentric tendency is sourced in the delusion that 80% of folks think they are better, smarter, etc. than 80% of the rest. Of course such is a delusion ... There is not enough spaces in the top 20% for 80% of the folks.

In reality …

... it would be a good time for one to observe the behavior of those he follows. There is the possibility the jobs report will really move the market one way or the other. So if one of your favorites is dumping before the Simulator can register the day's losses I challenge you to do this. Take stock of what kind of impact that has on his scores. It may surprise you how much effect this kind of activity has on scoring. But after having done that one should give alot of thought as to what k…

It's always great to see bearishness top 50% like it did last week and these kinds of sentiment readings are often followed by persistent rally. So were do we stand today?

Actually I think it could go either way. But I lean slightly to further correction (meeting the criteria of significant correction). The reason is the continued divergence in the market as this rally has progressed. While I do think we will see market continue to diverge through the remainder of the bull market, the p…

Some 2 months ago, Shanghai lost the trend which supported prices since November 2008. It's spent a month and a half below its 50 MA and so its been, it seems, in its own little bear market.

Today, Shanghai reopened after a long holiday. I was a little concerned about it but was pleased to wake this morning to find it closed up almost 5%. Below is chart of the Shanghai composite. I had to draw in the last day's trade because charting seems to be delayed by a day on Yahoo's daily interva…

... Eliza's education fund. Holds promise. The ticker is ATSI. She's only now becoming profitable with top line growing. Maybe something you'd risk in. I don't own any but I think I will buy in the coming days or weeks.

Hope she is doing well. JP has a cold and its really giving my wife a scare on account of H1N1. He has no fever though just a mighty snotty nose :-).

Recently, Owltrades was discouraged by this. It was obvious to him ... I think ... that there was a miscalculation in Levene's return and annualized score. I thought I would shed some light on that issue.

First let me say that Levene (and to Levene), whether a novice or not, has done an excellent job at P&P. There are some things one can take from his trading/investing and put into practice.

First, he trades little. For most people, and often ultimately even for traders a majority o…

... do you all know that we can't close picks?

Hi all, I take it everyone had a good week :-). One thing you will notice is that I got involved in little banter this week. It certainly pays to concentrate on work. For those who follow my going's on, you will notice that my portfolio score grew by over 9 percentage points this week. :-) In an effort to maintain the growth of that score I did some thinning this weekend and isolated the "detention list" (which are those which will either graduate to trenders or get canned.

Let me also …

There is alot of talk about Elliot wave counts and such and bears really want to "ride that next wave down to the end of humanity". If you are so inclined then listen up. You had best be patient.

Early in the rally from July, I recognized this rally was more than "run of the mill" At the time, I didn't think it would be this good or that the breadth indication would wind up this favorable. But as they keep coming in ... one thing is clear to me. This kind of market uniformity is typical…