TheMiamiNegotiator's Blog : Friday's Plunge

Howdy, TheMiamiNegotiator!

-- Housing is still about six months out for an entire turn for the better. --

As one who believes residential real estate is the primary locus of the U.S. economy's present difficulty, I was wondering what factor or factors you are focused on with respect to the six-month time frame you mention.

Thanks! And good luck!

MackTheKnife

As a private investor, chalk it up to experience.

There is not just one piece of data that I use, but a compilation of data. I think the worse is really behind us, except for that new foreclosure bill, that in my opinion will only help developers and not homeowners in foreclosure, as it is presented in the media, to help foreclosure victims. (this will fan the foreclosure flame)

Miami residential real estate prices are getting close to 2005 prices, in addition to many other cities around the nation.

And many of the so called "professionals", including the "talking heads" would love for everyone to believe that the sky is still falling, and that we're still out a year or two from reaching a bottom.

The old school rule of thumb...if too many people are all heading in the same direction, look for another route.

I'm listening to my gut...

Good Luck....

TheMiamiNegotiator...

Howdy, TheMiamiNegotiator!

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on what I believe to be the most salient issue in the economy at this time!

Good luck!

MackTheKnife

Mack, it isn't RE that is the "main" problem. The BIG problem is the fact that the money runner banks STILL refuse to properly acknowledge their losses. That's why guys like Schwartz from BSC and Immelt from GE put up a front that they didn't know! :-) It's a pretty GOOG argument to use until it can be proven you aren't quite telling the truth. Immelt n Schwartz will "eventually" be found out. Ya know why? Cuz ya can't hide from the markets! *-) Like I said bafo...."Evil reigns in NYC"....I bet the Yankees will be forced to lower ticket prices mid-season! :-) 3J

I agree with the Miami negotiator, and I want to see interest rates at an all time low. As a small businessman I have noticed a huge amount of commercial real estate hit the market. When you combine low prices with low interest rates, the buyer gets negotiation advantage. The downside risk is the actual availability of credit, but now with the low turnover of loans, banks will have no choice but to issue them once again. They can't simply close their doors and cease and dessist all loan granting.

Joe, the banks actually realize that they can get rid of their bad loans at any time they want to. The reason they won't do that is because they would have to take a 20%+ hit across the board in "performing" loans....never mind nonperforming loans. The nonperforming loans go to you n me through the Federal Reserve of the United States of America....what a country! :-) Anyhoo, the banks had MANY chances to discount the loans on their books.....BSC would not have gone belly up n out "if" they had listened to bernanke when he testified before Congress. Bernanke said the banks "should" discount their loans to the fokes they screwed.....the banks refused to listen. They WILL listen in the end....but the punishment will be MUCH more severe than it would have been. LEH n C don't have to fail. They will if they don't hurry up and tell the truth though. That's a law of life....not stocks. *-) 3J

Howdy, 3J!

-- I bet the Yankees will be forced to lower ticket prices mid-season! --

Ain't gonna happen this year: When I was buying tickets more than a month ago, all of the best games -- and most of the worst games -- already were sold out.

(Thank the gods for the New York Nationals and the Washington Generals!)

Good luck!

MackTheKnife

Ooooh, sorry to hear about them there Yankee tickets ,Mack. I guess it's too late for me to "unsnooker" ya then. The GOOG newz is that the Yankees won't even make it to the playoffs this year so you won't have to be overcharged to see em fold again which is the modus operandi of the Spanks. :-) I'll see what I can do about prices for next year since that $75 million "fixer upper" townhouse CNBC was spewin about yesterday won't even catch a bid at $7.5 mil! :o Ooooooh, the "horrors" of housing in the place where evil resides. :-) 3J