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TheInstitutional
TheInstitutional vip
P&P Score: 99.49   Points: 171.42   Accuracy: 62.77%   Average Pick Score: 8.87   Annual Return: 0.53% (2.11% since 3/4/08)  

TheInstitutional's Blog : ETF Portfolio Strategy update! Time now for some optimism!

Date January 22, 2008    Comments Comments (2)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (281)   
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WOW this is really what I expected!
Time to get more conservative!
We cought the falling market now volatility will be still high but risk is increasing and I suggest to become more neutral and buy selectively the market will stay on the roller coaster for a while!
Market has entered the capitulation phase!


Sectors.

Overweight:
Utilities
Health Care

Normal weight:
Energy
Consumer Staples

Underweight
Material
Financial
Consumer Discretionary
Industrial
Technology

Short
none

I have upgraded Financial, Consumer Discretionary, Industrial and Technology to Underweight from Short

Market Barometer LongTerm -60% and  ShortTerm -100% .

Long positions are fully hedged since November 9 when the SP500 was at 1467.

Positions:
ETF Bonds
30% Allocation  initiated Nov8
Long IEF @ 85.23
Long TLT @ 90.65

Sector ETF
10% Allocation  each one initiated Nov8
Long IDU @100.03
Long SKF @ 98.99 (This is a ultrashort ETF so make money whit Financials going down)
Short XLY @ 35
Long SIJ @ 70.50 (ultrashort industrial sector)


Commodities ETF
5%  Allocation  initiated Nov 16
Long GLD @ 78.71

Stock Index ETF
40% Net Short position Allocation  initiated Nov 8
(Those are a ultrashort ETF so make money whit index going down)
Long TWM @ 69.89
Long QID @ 40.24
Long SDS @ 55.36


International Markets ETF
 5%  Allocation  initiated Nov 26
(This is an ultrashort ETF so make money whit index going down)
Long FXP @ 80.50

NEW POSITIONS:

Close positions and take nice profits on IDU, SKF,XLY we keep a 10% short on the Industrial sector only.

Close positions on TWM, QID and take nice profits. Just keep SDS for hedging.

Close position on FXP and run away with nice profits China at this level must be covered.

Buy 10% position each on the following emerging markets ETF:
EWM (Malaysia) IFN(India) and EWH (Hong Kong) those domestic markets have been negatively affected recently but have long term potential since from a macro analysis they can now decoup from the global negative domino effect!

Buy 10% position on ICF (Real Estate construction) this market is hitting a bottom!



Safe investing and trading to anyone!

TheInstitutional


2 Comment(s):

Author JoeCole     Date January 22, 2008 19:29 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I see what you're saying with the gap down today with respect to capitulation, but I think we may see a couple more days of shakeout. Do you think we'll see a bounce in early Feb? It seems likely to me given the stock trader's almanac and "Zacks 1 rank in Feb" history coupled with the oversold level. On the other hand the ultrashorts pulled back nicely after this morning and the markets failed to follow through to the upside even after a surprise .75 rate cut. I would just like to get through earnings season and the fed mtg.
Author TheInstitutional     Date January 23, 2008 09:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Oh yes I am definitely NOT calling an absolute bottom here. Market needs to find a comfortable level where building a base. I think will stay very volatile and may be try to test the 1220 area on the SP500 at least on an intraday basis.
Nevertheless I think that for the ones that have been benefiting from the sharp drop down it is time to get more market neutral and to try to generate Alpha with a good stock picking.

As I mentioned on the other post I did yesterday:
"This are stocks that I am buying now (and I am also disclosing this as an analyst since the Hedge Fund I work with has entered these positions):
MBI (The Bond insurer is a big buy here), AFR, BRT, RWT, HOV, LEN, DHI, KBH, TOL (I think quality mortgage and selected home builders are at steal prices!)
BSC (could be a target for acquisition...), NITE among the broker dealers, JCP among battered retail chains could benefit from the Bush stilulus plan.
BX and FIG those Private Equity, LBOs alternative investment asset managers are a big BUY here."

Those were the stocks I bought yesterday and I think they are all tremendously undervalued.
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