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TheInstitutional
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TheInstitutional's Blog : Capitulation is coming!

Date October 24, 2008  Edited: October 24, 2008    Comments Comments (66)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (259)   
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Tonight the asian market are almost on free fall, Europe is collapsing, US futures near two weeks ago crash lows, commodities on free fall, currencies badly hit excluding the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen, flight to quality toward treasuries resumed.

I have the impression that between today and monday the stock market will capitulate taking new lows with record volume.

I know it looks plenty of bargains in the market but the macro economic scenario is taking the lead.

We are facing deflation on almost everything, depression will be next!

We are facing incredible volatility nowadays.
The Treasury is probably going to support the market buying shares (may be with discretion) but it is not enogh.

We can may be see a sharp violent upswing after the new lows but then a steady decline could follow.

It is not a good time for investing in stocks if you cannot hedge or short....

Again I think we will survive but it is going to be tough...I mean the real economic and social impact of the damage is huge and will last for few years...anyway opportunities are ahead for the prudent and wise man!
We are probably going to be able to buy prime stocks at almost penny prices in the next months if we can save our cash power!


66 Comment(s):

Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 06:35 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The timing of your last call was spot on. So may this one also be.

My recollection of the 1987 crash (which I watched in a commodity trading house in rural Oklahoma on a monochrome green monitor) was somewhere in the neighborhood of 8% to 10% lower open and consistent selling. Was a sight to behold ... no of us suspected it until after Friday's close. Was definitely an amazing day firmly etched in my memory.

The FED will react, probably before the open, perhaps with a "coordinated rate cut" involving other banks. I don't expect many bottom pickers when that happens ... but who knows?

JC owes you an apology. You were correct on your last call and he was not. Looks like we get the retest and a capitulation that makes people throw in the towel. No one is correct all the time but you are right about this call when it really matters.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 07:57  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The market hasn't even opened yet and I should start apologizing for calling a bottom? Lol, the market is as unapologetic as I am, and I still think you should RELAX, lol, because every investor has a different timeline and I maintain that long holders with a long timeline can ride this out and that there is value in the market and that someday it will reverse from it's current trend and be higher than it is today, and remain higher for probably many many years, but right now for day trading, for short time horizon it looks bad. If you can't see the future, then put yourself in the future and look back to today, what do you wish you would have done?
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 08:24 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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No JC,

Apologize for pooh-poohing his call for a retest where you said he should ". . . relax and stop trying to time the market"

http://www.peopleandpicks.com/index.php?page=blog&action=view_post&id=2001984&user_id=609

You are big boy and will do what you will. But I think it would not be out of line for you to acknowledge that he was right about that. Just in good spirits ... that's all.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 08:39 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

The other day I referenced Hulbert's article on buy and hold philosophy for a reason. When there is a consensus that "holding now" will pay of big in the future ,,, the bottom is usually pretty distant in price. When sentiment changes to a philosophy that one can't hold stock (only trade them) this is an important indicator of a bottom.

I have a light position to benefit from lower prices and I have the rest in government securities and cash. So I'm not heavily short. But even so, I'm not the least bit concerned about getting in on the bottom of this market. My greatest risk is destruction of my capital. I depend upon it for my living. Do you remember the fable (of Aesop) where the dog sees his image in the pool holding meat in his mouth. Envy of the image's meat cause the dog to open his mouth and lose the meat he already had.

Volatility exploits envy and greed. I would advise everyone ... don't envy the person who picks the bottom. Make sure you are swinging at good pitches ... do not swagger around being cavalier. These are very dangerous times. They will pass ... make sure you have your capital when it does pass.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 08:52 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Haha, ok my appologies.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 08:53  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB, do you enter new shorts today or wait for rally?

I see you are attempting to call me 'cavalier' and 'swagger' so I believe that you are in effect attempting to appear level headed, but in fact you called the bottom as well not long ago, then retracted and said that you were long and then short and waiting to short, so you are not so steady handed at the bat either I'm sure.

So TI called the bottom, then retracted and went short, as did BSNBC, and many of us. This is an unusual market and we don't know what it is discounting right now, but clearly value can be had if you have the cash and the tenacity, nevermind earnings and global economic conditions because trading has occurred since the begining of cave man times and will not end even if the financial system blows up.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 09:15  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

I'm not entering new shorts. I am going to let my positions, small as they are, ride .... while I wait for capitulation. I'm sure I will leave some of the bottom on the table cause I'm very cautious here.

BTW, I didn't call "the" bottom. I recognized indication of "a" bottom. I took a long position and made money on it. I noticed the rally wasn't developing properly to be a significant rally. I sold and went short albeit late. The market bested me by feigning a bottom suckering me to go long. Even so, I listened to the market and rapidly adapted. I think you did as well.

Furthermore, I'm not talking you perse when I say the words "cavalier" and "swagger". These are attitudes EVERYONE, INCLUDING MYSELF, must fight back. I'm no more immune to them than is anyone to include you. Conscientiousness is required to defeat these temptations.

Also, in particular my comments were meant to be considered going forward rather than looking back.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 09:23  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
We are witnessing an intentional depression in equity and housing prices by the financial institutions. Big banks like BAC and WFC are forcing prices down while increasing their deposit base.

Housing prices are NOT decreasing due to lack of demand, I have looked into this. They are decreasing due to lack of ability to borrow.

They are not lending intentionally because of this, so the fear bubble is ever increasing in orders of magnitude

By simply refusing to lend and by selling, they create massive discounts in all this. In the end JPM, BAC and WFC will win because only they will have the insider knowledge and liquidity to buy up all the cheap assets, because no one will be able to compete with them, and no one will have cash or borrowed money or confidence to do it. They will become excessively wealthy through this and we can only hope to tread water.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 09:29  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

I hate to say it ... but I think you are correct. They will have complete control of the banking system and they are forcing it to happen. Its all easy to do. The primary owners of the banks you mentioned (elite 1%'ers) just withdraw their funds from your local bank forcing it into seizure. They put their money back after it is their's for pennies on the dollar. This is the kind of world we live in. Protect yourself the best you can from it.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 09:38  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
That's why I called for the government to open SBA lending to small businesses INSTEAD OF injecting capital into the big banks. Huge mistake again for the Bush Admin, which would be continued by their agent Sarah Palin. You don't create increased lending by narrowing the competition field and by rewarding those that are not lending, that goes against my grain. We need small business competition, at least to be able to compete and obtain a loan.

By the way, the market is forming an intraday triangle.....
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 09:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

The answer to all our problems is the wealth of 1%ers. If they would just take their loss we could move on. Instead they have turned the government into a debt collector. There is plenty of capital. But they won't capitalize the institutions they own.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 09:47  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
The reason is because THEY will eventually buy, meaning THEY get to call the bottom, not us. They will not open up lending until AFTER that has occurred, that is how they win this time. Credit markets are fictional now because who are they lending to and who's money are they using to do it? Ahhhh.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 10:00  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

I just covered my short position. The action today isn't acting like a sell off should.

I will re-enter short if it cooperates but will not go long.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 10:11  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
I am initiating OPSEC on my positions but am making a long and short bet. Average Joe should pay attention to what I have said in regards to the big banks and SBA lending.

SBA Express programs guarantee 70-85% of SBA loans. So guess what you need in collateral and liquidity - 30%? 40%? No, in addition to SBA guarantee you need 150% in the form of a CD or highly liquid asset to borrow money right now as a small business in addition to the government guarantee. Real collateral is discounted sometimes 50% and held by the bank. Think about how they are making money now? You have banks increasing rates on FIXED rate mortgages and loans, highway robbery on ave Joe. I have spoken on this subject and normally an optimist.

I am a long-time Republican, veteran, former resident of both Arizona and Alaska and I am changing colors this season and will vote Democrat.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 10:23 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

It occurs to me. If a person has that kind of capital lying around ... there is no need to borrow the money. It's senselessness. Why would some borrow if had it already to begin with?
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 10:27  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
Many businesses rely on borrowed money, particularly for large projects. Very few can pay cash out of pocket, especially nowadays. If you have cash and can pay cash for a large investment, you will be able to avert the highway robbery in lending that is going on. Do you know what PMI goes for now? Or did you know that many lenders are charging annual fees now to check on taxes just in case the value declines? Small print is outrageous and extremely disadvantaged IF you qualify, so you would be better off paying cash even if you could get a low interest loan. I know some connected, wealthy people who can't get a loan right now, just look at the halted projects in Vegas. That's our economy, the ability to pay later for what is started now.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 10:34 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

Its a lender's market. Think about it. When it comes to mortgages, 1/2 of lenders are gone. There is little market for them and if a lender has the capital to portfolio the loan ... he states the terms with a "take it or leave it" attitude.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 10:39 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

We may be getting the rally you called for. I don't know whats happening but this market isn't acting like it open 7% lower. I bought couple of 105 strike AAPL call @ 3.55 just to have something in the fray.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 10:56  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
We don't know what it is because it's driven by the powerful few. My instinct is that the rally is fool's gold and an oversold bounce, but there is a monstrous rally to occur when you and I least expect it.

Did you see Eemak's post? I got phone calls from people saying that they were waiting for the capitulation that didn't occur today - Art Cashen-esque. Once again, retail investors are not out of the game yet so confusion will continue. Fog ahead! Or is it the Bee market?

Truth is, the market disbelieves this rally as apparent in the action, it will be the most doubtful rally that will be the one, so I'll tune in next week and see.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 11:06 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

I don't know if you have thought about this but I think it is possible ... that the reason this market fights so hard to stay up is because so many ordinary Joes are shorting or hedging it. Its like the discount which needs to happen gets arbitraged away preventing it from happening.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 11:09  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
Maybe. I think there is some short covering mostly and the market does not want to be predictable now as many are trying to predict what it will do, so until people stop trying to predict the broad market and instead look for good and bad stocks we will not see rational movement.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 11:13 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The market is no doubt crazy. Unbelievable swings. I just wish I could time them perfectly. If I could, I could have more than "dubyahd" my money, LOL.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 11:16 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
Have you noticed that no one cares about individual stock movements anymore, just 'the market?'
Author gin     Date October 24, 2008 11:17 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I have this funny feeling that the market is waiting for something. Not sure what it is. Not trying to predict. I have seen this "holding pattern" before and then it sold off in the afternoon on the slightess provocation.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 11:19  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
What I do know is buy the news when it comes. Bad news coming, don't know what but I believe buy it when it comes, I don't mean daily bad news, I mean whatever news the market is currently discounting that has not come out yet, bad.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 11:21 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

Individual stocks are so much more volatile. I've quit screwing with them myself. I allow myself one position in an individual stock ... no more. The market moves so fast I can't handle diversified positions in individual stocks. Too many orders to place.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 11:25 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

What do you think about this? Everyone, (myself included), just wants to get the bear market over with. I'm not wishing a crash ... but I would be relieved to see one because they tend to be followed by strong trending rallies. Its like this is going to be a long drawn out affair of jacking this way and jacking that way while we trend lower.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 24, 2008 11:29 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Uhhhm, don't count me in as one who wants to see the selling end. :-) I said we were going back to March 2003 levels...minimum! Check your 10 year chart on AAPL pleeez! LOL 3J
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 11:30  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
Hmm. That's what it's been doing, and probably will continue to some degree for some time. I think a bottom will happen, but not when everyone thinks it will, nor will it be an easy short trade, but continued whipsaw while traders get scalped and those long term holders get marked down and fear persists. Fear never lasts forever and when it turns it is reasonable to say that it turns significantly. That is fact and everyone knows it, what no one knows is that it will occur when the general market least expects it to, because many expect it to occur soon, so whatever it takes to wash that out. A zig zag as you say would do just that because those expecting something will buy high and sell low or sell low and buy high.

When you add all that together you get a very dangerous situation because you don't want to get whipsawed, and you don't want to miss out on the turnaround, so the trader could get caught in some kind of trap.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 24, 2008 11:36 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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CJC, no EZ chort trades?!! I just told you! watch thisn!>>>>NKE *-) $40 before the day is out....$35 sometime on Mon...EEEEEEEEEE ZEEEEE money! :-) 3J
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 11:38 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

Think about the market of the Great Depression. For months it jacked its way lower. I would bet many who had capital called many bottoms along the way. Time and time again.

Here is the scary part. Even after the DJIA had lost 80% of its value ... there was still enough bear market left to halve it again. I'm not saying we are going to see the DJIA lose 90% of its value ... of course I am not saying that. But taking a staunch position long means one could endure considerable pain before recouping.

Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 11:44 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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3J,

I would love to buy AAPL at that price. Did you know that AAPL has over 3 times that much cash and no debt? If I could buy AAPL at 1/3 its cash ... I would bet the farm on it and quit trading.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 11:46  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
One way to trade it is to Sell Puts at the strike price you'd buy it. A bullish trade, but one where you would be willing to buy it if the underlying got below the strike price. So you only risk the cost of the option.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 11:49  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I love selling puts against cash. Its the mirror of covered call ... hold on a second.

Check this out ... one can sell the Dec 60 strike put for $120. Takes $5880 to cover that put. So a guy can make 2% in two months. Annualized that is 12.6% and doesn't include the interest one earns on the cash.
Author gin     Date October 24, 2008 11:52 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB, the market has been "jacking its way lower" since Oct 07. Maybe it will stop right on Nov. 5. Again not trying to make predictions

And here we go again. Bleeding till 4pm...
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 11:58  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Getting might feisty there gin ...

I don't care which way the market goes. I have all of $720 at risk in the market. If you "need" it to go down ... I bless it ... hope that works out.

Oh and gin ... are you using astrology?
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 12:18 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Where did gin go?

Yeah there is some type of conjunction or opposition (I'm not sure which) which peaks on the 4th of November. I wonder if gin is playing for capitulation on Nov. 4.
Author gin     Date October 24, 2008 12:23 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I wish I knew AND believed in astrology (like some people and their charts/numbers). Stupidly as it sounds I go by gut and what is in front of me at the moment. But I do believe that some stability (call it what you please) will come after Nov. 4
Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 24, 2008 12:29 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Hmmm, I take it you don't believe AAPL will be a sub $20 stock again, TB? :o I also said RIMM would be a sub $20 stock again when it twas waaaaay up there. Of course it is a tad "easier" to imagine RIMM as a sub $20 stock right now than it is to imagine AAPL as one. :-) Do you think we should throw Steve Jobs in the slammer for being a scammer? I sho do! *-) 3J
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 12:30 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Why do you believe that? What's your theory about the 4th which is important to stability?
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 12:32 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Hey 3J,

Any thing can happen ... I suppose. But I would buy below 20. Hey it traded in the sevens in 2003. I'd buy there too.
Author gin     Date October 24, 2008 12:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The market has been going down since Oct 07 but only in the last couple of months did pick up some steam (when it turned its attention to politics). From my (very) naive point of view, there is a lot of anxiety and uncertanly in the market. After the election, the direction will become clearer.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 24, 2008 12:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Not only can anything happen...it WILL happen! *-) Your story about AAPL's cash position reminds me of a play I made back after 9/11. I started building a position in TXCC well below its 1.50/sh in cash value. They had just announced a stock buyback program.....which of course I now know means there is trouble ahead. Stock buyback programs are only put in place so idiots like Jim Cramer can use it as evidence that his idiotic take on things makes sense. :-) anyhoo, TXCC fell all the way to .23 centavos and I lost a full 75% on somma my entries....so I averaged down LOL It then went to .19 and from there rallied to $5+!!! :o The windup? Your take on per share cash value doan mean chit! :-) BTW, I would MUCH ratheer begin buying TXCC in here at .38 centavos even though I'm sure that .19 price level from waaaay back when will be taken out. That would only be a 50% fall for TXCC. AAPL gotsta git cut in 1/2 at least twice! ....so I will let you decide. *-) 3J
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 13:03  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Thanks gin. That's sounds reasonable to me.

3J,

But what is the difference between TXCC and AAPL?

AAPL has $25 in cash and it added $4 from net cash flows in this quarter alone.

TXCC ... on the other hand ... was losing money and (as far as I know) never has made money. Its a money toilet swirling its cash and every extra dime they raise down to the septic tank below.

Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 24, 2008 13:09 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Yeah but...what does "making money" have to do with stock price besides nuthin? :-) GS was "making money" all along....in fackt, "ifn" you was to axe your "ave Joe" they would tell you that GS is the BIG Kahuna of making money. Clueless Warren Buffoon even thinks so. *-) Butt! ....will making money prevent GS's stock price from falling below the recent $74 low? Answer: >>>>>....NOPE!!! :o 3J
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 13:09 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Hey TI,

Thanks for hosting today.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 13:13  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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3J,

Let me ask you a question.

Lets say I have two piggy banks. Lets say they both have cash in them but one continually consumes the cash within "pooping" it out in little piles of pig chit. However, the other just grows fatter and fatter with more and more cash. I'm going to give you either one you choose. Which do you pick?
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 13:14  Edited: October 24, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unrestricted_Warfare

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IWar

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberwarfare


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_Rain
Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 24, 2008 13:23 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I'd take the one that was free n clear of cash since the dollar will be going into a major tumble soon. :-) I wouldn't want my little piggy to be bloated with cash as "empty spaces" are easier to fill with thangs that'll make you some muny! *-) Plus I woulda spent ALL the money on wine, women, and general merriment. Taint no reason to be "depressed" is what I say. :-)BTW, the "making cash" price level for AAPL stock was like $50 ....initiating a long position anywherst above that price level is like basing your trade on "moron" accounting practices....kinda like what ya dunn did in trying to save MTL in the upper teens. I'll save MTL .....you relax and wait until I am ready to sell you some...in the upper teens. :-) Remember, Congress doesn't rule this economonomy, neither does Uncle Fester or Ben, Warren Buffoon is plain clueless to the point of "guessing" n begging....so who DOES rule? Answer: >>>>...the charts! *-) 3J
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 13:37 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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LOL 3J,

Hey I think I'm getting post 50.

Reminds me of the good ole day's with JavaJ and the gang.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 13:42 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Where does the 3:00 witching hour bring us this time?
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 13:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

I haven't a clue but $720 of my capital says that its going higher ... LOL.
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 13:49 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The market seems to be a bunch of this ...

This guy is bearish because he thinks this other guy is bullish who is really bearish because he thinks the other guy is bullish ... ad infinitum ... ad nauseum.
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 13:50 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TB,
6 contracts?
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 13:52  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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No just 2

105 strike at 3.55 and $11.99 for commission. Actually I guess that comes to $722
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 13:55 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I should add a "chort" after everything I say like 3J used to.

I'm going to Grandma's house this afternoon for tea... Chort!
I'm going to pick my kids up after soccer practice... Chort!
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 13:58 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Old McDonald had a Chort ... Eee -eye ... Eee - eye ... Ohhh

With a Chort Chort here and a Chort Chort there ...
Author gin     Date October 24, 2008 14:19 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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BTW, whatever happened to JavaJ?
Author TickerBandit     Date October 24, 2008 14:27  Edited: October 24, 2008 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Gin, he just lost interest in the Zack's thang.

I miss him. A great guy who had a great blog.
Author gin     Date October 24, 2008 14:32 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I remember he made a guest appearence in the beginning of this year and then I did not see anything from him. Too bad. I used to read his commentaries all the time.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 24, 2008 14:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Yeah, Java was a GOOG play by play guy. I used to call him the Howard Cosell of Zaxby's. The guy was absolutely clueless as fer as the market goes and I am glad he took my advice and stayed completely out. Or maybe that's why we don't hear from him no mo....he was "painfully eliminated" like NE1 who was as clueless as he was "woulda" been. Like I always say.....Ooooooooh well. :-) I'll have to admit, I do kinda miss the type of "lost soul" attitude Java brought to the game though.... simply cuz his take was sooooo hilarious and the "looks likes"..."might be's" and "could be's" added to his personna. I use those terms here often in honor of Java in fact. :-) Well, it was more fun lissnin to Java than it twas listening to fokes like OJJJ n Mighty Mouth who actually believed they knew what they were tawkin about. LOL 3J
Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 24, 2008 15:17 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Spekkin of "clueless" ....Yo CJC! I figured this would be a GOOG time to check your VISioN. You just loved it at $20+ two times....you "doubted" it would see $10 like I said it twould I'm sure. And then when I said I would take it to $7 just to see what you thunk I'm wreckin ya thunk I was nutso! :o Now all them there thangs have happened and guess what? You don't have to make a decision at all cuz the market made the decision for ya! You would never touch it at $7 since it doesn't look "nearly as GOOG" now as it did at $23....right? LOL 3J
Author JoeCole     Date October 24, 2008 16:46 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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3J, not bad compared to the rest of the market, glad I sold it at it's top.
Author JoeCole     Date October 25, 2008 00:12  Edited: October 25, 2008 by JoeCole Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Ok, so I finally caved in and clicked 'recommend this post'

So anyway, can't you see the fear in the market? The blips and jagged edges, volatility, etc. It's like a freakin seismograph. They should add captions to the action like batman sounds: Blam, Boom Pow!

So what's going on in Eastern Europe right now, complete failure of the capitalist system? Global meltdown (whatever that means) etc?

Chort!
Author JoeJustJoe     Date October 25, 2008 07:44  Edited: October 25, 2008 by JoeJustJoe Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Sure, you sold it at the top but "if" you had conviction (in my case it means if you "knew") that it would someday trade to $10 you "coulda" made money on the way down. Do you think I am atall skeeered about holding NKE chort to at least $40? ....gulp! :o ....c'mon now....this is the company that can pay ANY top sports figure ANY amount of money necessary to get your kids to buy their shoes and to make you indifferent to your rediculously high cable TV bill as a result of them being able to pay Tiger Woods whatever he axes. I'm just trying to bring your cable TV bill down. You got a problemo with that? :o Go ahead and make a stab at picking a buy point on VISN....how can you lose? You DID in fact like it at $20+....this is a 60% off sale...no? :-) Howza bout I put it up as a play here and ifn I generate a 20% gain before I generate a 20% loss you pay? I "think" you tried something like this with my picks so lemme turn the table on ya...again. :-) 3J
Author TickerBandit     Date October 25, 2008 10:05 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JC,

Regarding your last post. So true. This is really happening but it seems like science fiction.

Even so, the market has had similar periods of volatility in the past.

Check out Hulberts' latest ... http://tinyurl.com/6x5ldx

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