TheInstitutional's Blog : Latest entries

I have been very busy and could not update the blog but for the ones that have followed my picks they surely have noticed that we have taken advantage of the up move with about 35% profit on the index and a nice selection of financial stocks with profit over 100% on many of them, on top BAC with more than 200% profit in few weeks.

Now is time to take full profit of the long position and reconsider the situation, my indicators point to a correction in the market, possibly a retest of the lows,…

I would not be surprise if this week we take new lows on the indexes there is too much negative pressure coming from all the corners of the global economy.

I have a short term target on the SP 500 in the 770 area (the lows of 2002) then in the 650 area for the next 3 to 4 months.

Anyway lots of trading and swing opportunities for short term players, personally I like the SPY options and mini SP futures.

Tonight the asian market are almost on free fall, Europe is collapsing, US futures near two weeks ago crash lows, commodities on free fall, currencies badly hit excluding the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen, flight to quality toward treasuries resumed.

I have the impression that between today and monday the stock market will capitulate taking new lows with record volume.

I know it looks plenty of bargains in the market but the macro economic scenario is taking the lead.

We are facing def…

In the last few days I had to reconsider the situation and my analysis.

After being very negative on the market for about one year and profit from the downturn, in the last few days I became bullish on front of the governments interventions to save the financial system.

I have to tell you that on my opinion although the U.S. Government has really done what is needed (together with other major countries) this is not enough to recover.

First, financial market are not going to be the same …

Wow that last week was just unbeliveble!!!
I think we are going to test the lows again before we have another rally, I lightened my long position today, looking to reenter long after a test of the lows in the next few days.

I am writing this notes in the most difficult time for Wall Street and Main Street since the Great Depression.
I do hope and believe tomorrow Capitol Hill will show to the entire free world that America will take this step and vote for the bailout.
It is not perfect but will help the financial system and the credit system survive and this will help the average Joe too.

I am loading up on stocks at bargain price and strongly believe this panic will get relief, there is there time to sort out…

The ones that read me this time last year remember I was predicting what happened and the failure of many big names...now I do think we are in a true bottoming phase.
Yesterday climax was impressing me and recalled me about 1987.
I think the market will stay volatile for sometime but the worst is behind us even if politicians on Capital Hill yesterday gave to the World the worst show....
There will be a package...Wall Street will survive and will be cleaner, the Government intervention is nec…

WOW this is really what I expected!Time to get more conservative!We cought the falling market now volatility will be still high but risk is increasing and I suggest to become more neutral and buy selectively the market will stay on the roller coaster for a while!Market has entered the capitulation phase!Sectors.Overweight:UtilitiesHealth CareNormal weight:EnergyConsumer StaplesUnderweightMaterialFinancial Consumer Discretionary Industrial TechnologyShortnoneI have upgraded Financial, Consumer…

We cought the falling knife, as expected we had panic spreading around the globe, this was no surprise to our readers since I have been expecting this to happen.Today the market reached almost perfectly our target on the downside at 1290/1277 on the SP by hitting an intraday low at 1274.Prompt action from the FED cutting the Fed Funds by 0.75% to 3.50 has been an extremely good timing to prevent panic to spread further.Good job!For the ones that read my post this autumn I called for a recession …

There is not surprise at all for me and the ones that read my post here to see happening what I diligently anticipated on this blog in the last few months.Now the support at 1390/1360 is not holding anymore and the next level of support is going to be at 1290/1277 although I expect intraday lows toward 1220 before the SP500 will find a solid support.Sectors.Overweight:UtilitiesHealth CareNormal weight:EnergyConsumer StaplesUnderweightMaterialShortFinancialConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial
Techno…