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PrimoTenore
P&P Score: 26.23   Points: -18.56   Accuracy: 59.57%   Average Pick Score: 0.92   Annual Return: 8.42% (36.20% since 2/7/08)  

PrimoTenore's Blog : My new volatility strategy

Date December 2, 2008    Comments Comments (6)    Recommended (150)   
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Early last month, I noticed how one of my favorite stocks, DXPE was bouncing around like a jumping bean, outpacing the market in whichever direction it decided to travel.

This is a stock I'd like to hold through the recovery. I like it as a long term investment for a number of reasons. But I was getting tired of sitting here making no money while I wait for the market to recover. And I don't have time to be one of those eight screens up at once daytraders.

I wondered if I could put DXPE's volatility to work for me without spending a lot of time babysitting it. So I finally took the time to decipher Ameritrade's conditional ordering.

It was a lot simpler than I thought. I went to Trade: Stock and entered a buy order for DXPE at $11.55. At the time, that was the low, established a few days prior. Then I hit the checkbox for "make this a conditional order" and selected "One Triggers Another."

The second order, which would be entered only if my buy order filled, was a sell order for all of my newly purchased DXPE, at $12.90.

It turns out I wasn't very ambitious with my buy order. After it filled on November 10, DXPE dropped to $10.24. However, only a couple of weeks later, my sell order which had been automatically entered, filled at $12.90, getting me a tidy 11.6% return (minus $19.98) in a couple weeks' time.

It seems to me the key to this approach is to find stocks which meet both of the following conditions:
1) You like the long term outlook well enough that you won't mind riding it out if you don't meet your sell limit right away.
2) It makes wide enough swings over a week or two of trading that it makes sense to sell it to book your gain and pick it up again later at a discount.

I tried screening for more stocks like this on Zacks.com. I used Zacks Rank of 2 or better as a shortcut for earnings strength, and added a beta of 3 or more for volatility. I'll post them here if any of those picks pan out.


6 Comment(s):

Author JoeJustJoe     Date December 2, 2008 16:24 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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It's not a bad strategery if you pick the right stock. Keep your eye on thisn too>>>OVTI. Longer term it will be a teenangel again. It "might" actually get there in 3 months or less. It needs to hold current levels though ($5.10-5.25)...but I would have no problem with stepping up to a "1/2 holding" if it turns out the AH trading is just an "over-reaction" and it holds 5.10ish on the open. I'm wreckin a bad errrnuns report is driving OVTI down although I didn't check the newz yet. As we all know without question....errrnuns mean nothing. *-) If you are happy with 11% like ya got with DXPE I promise to double that return with this heeeya OVTI thingy.... just cuz ya took the time to lissen to me spew! :o ..."if" it holds 5.10ish on the open that is. :-) 3J
Author PrimoTenore     Date December 2, 2008 16:41 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Thanks for the input. What entry and exit point would you look for on OVTI then?
Author JoeJustJoe     Date December 2, 2008 16:51 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Last major support on the way down was at 10.42 but there was a "questionable" trend low that came in at 9.30...which would dictate a "worst case scenario" low of 5.58...and as of right now it "looks like" it is still trading in AH with an axed price of 4.80...that would make it a "no trade" ifn it opens like this....unless you are either nutz, adventurous, daring, or just plain ole trying to pull one over on me. I suggest you go with nutz, adventurous, or daring. *-) 3J
Author JoeJustJoe     Date December 3, 2008 09:39 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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OVTI now needs to take out the 4.45 low so I will wait for "proper" entry into a personal long. *-) 3J
Author darlin     Date December 3, 2008 09:59 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Looks like you got that $4.45 on open.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date December 3, 2008 10:02 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Yep...that low goes bye bye. The OWW play I mentioned is doing great though. Right now I am getting ready to take profits in longs....add to goldies...and load up on thisn>>>>FXP. *-) 3J
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