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OnIslandTrader
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OnIslandTrader's Blog : Flirting with danger

Date February 27, 2009    Comments Comments (4)    Recommended (125)   
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Each time we retest the November lows and bounce off them successfully, we build anticipation of the absolute low being in place. Each rebound builds confidence in those that bought on previous bounces, and sucks in additional bottom fishers. That is all great, if we do actually hold the previous lows. But watch out below if we fail to hold them. All that anticipation and confidence will rush for the exit at the same time and the momentum will be extreme as longs scramble to cover their positions and shorts jump on the bandwagon.


4 Comment(s):

Author JDShots     Date February 28, 2009 09:39 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I think the gov will try to pants me on Monday or Tuesday, but I will hold on to my shorts! LOL

With unemployment accelerating and earnings plummeting at a level that repeatedly exceeds estimates, I just don't see a bottom anytime soon.

Investors still don't know the true extent of toxicity, almost as much as they didn't before last September. As more of this becomes revealed, corrections will continue. If the level of toxicity isn't that bad, those securities would have already been enumerated, and their values communicated to investors (I'm assuming).

I think there will be extreme short term rallies and sell offs over the next 3-24 months, before the market settles on a slow 5-10 year general decline (with lots of mini rallies). At least, if all goes well.

But if we keep manipulating the markets the way we have been, the inevitable corrections will be devastating. Worst case is the unthinkable; the dollar crashes and we eat dirt to survive (after the Spam runs out).

I'm ignoring the 'we have bottomed' crowd until we can sustain a rally for more than a few days (more like a few weeks). When this happens, there will be plenty of time to get in, since a true recovery will take years.

JDShots
Author JDShots     Date February 28, 2009 09:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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One way to potential profits this year may be from the defense and security industries. If you watch the (non-mainstream) news, you will see that many nations are on an irreversible course for economic collapse; and many will risk everything to acquire the shiny bling of their weaker neighbors.
Author JDShots     Date February 28, 2009 09:58 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Our enemies better scramble to cover their positions.

http://www.youtube.com/v/I9QpDw9-li8&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01&border=1">

I'm longing LMT and BAESY
Author JDShots     Date March 2, 2009 18:28 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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What, no one likes the new Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning II? The thing gets an erection, then poops on you before taking off!!! How cool is that?

I guess it's the closest thing to a Transformer that we have (as far as public awareness).

Second Lockheed Martin F-35B STOVL Fighter
FORT WORTH, Texas, February 25th, 2009
Lockheed Martins [NYSE: LMT] second short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) F-35B Lightning II accomplished its first flight on Wednesday, Feb. 25. The aircraft, known as BF-2, joins a conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) F-35A and another STOVL F-35B that already have logged a combined total of 84 flights.

During its flight on Wednesday, BF-2 went through a series of maneuvers to assess its subsystems and basic handling qualities, and to check on-board instrumentation. Subsequent missions will take the aircraft higher and faster, in a structured series of flights. All F-35 test aircraft to date have been powered by the Pratt & Whitney F135 turbofan, the most powerful engine ever to fly in a jet fighter.

The F-35 program is now entering a period of greatly accelerated flight testing, as aircraft are delivered to the flight line at an ever-increasing rate, said Dan Crowley, Lockheed Martin executive vice president and F-35 program general manager. Each aircraft that rolls off the assembly line fulfills a unique verification objective and moves us closer to our customers initial operational capability dates.

BF-2 is on schedule to deploy to Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Md., later this year. It will remain in Fort Worth for the next several months to conduct a series of ground-test events, instrumentation calibrations, powered hover-pit testing (simulating flight) and airworthiness flights, including STOVL-mode operation. Initial flights will be in conventional mode.

BF-2 is essentially identical to the first STOVL jet, BF-1. The major difference lies with the instrumentation the two aircraft have different roles during flight testing. BF-2 will conduct flutter envelope expansion, air-refueling testing, high angle-of-attack testing, performance and propulsion testing, weapons testing and radar-signature testing. BF-1 will concentrate on initial STOVL flight operations such as short takeoffs, hovers and vertical landings, and will conduct ship-suitability and gun-integration testing. BF-1s first vertical landing is planned for the middle of 2009.

The F-35 is a supersonic, multi-role, 5th generation stealth fighter. Three F-35 variants derived from a common design, developed together and using the same sustainment infrastructure worldwide will replace at least 13 types of aircraft for 11 nations initially, making the Lightning II the most cost-effective fighter program in history.

Headquartered in Bethesda, Md., Lockheed Martin is a global security company that employs about 146,000 people worldwide and is principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products and services. The corporation reported 2008 sales of $42.7 billion.

F-35 and Lightning II are trademarks of Lockheed Martin Corporation.
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