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MightyMo
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P&P Score: 99.78   Points: 225.99   Accuracy: 61.48%   Average Pick Score: 1.25   Annual Return: 14.18% (76.32% since 1/3/08)  

MightyMo's Blog : Netflix romps as Apple skids : Is NFLX at 300 too high?

Date January 24, 2013  Edited: January 31, 2013    Comments Comments (18)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (24)   
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NFLX (Netflix) is going for even more subscribers! Other companies likely will go after NFLX! The Street endorses NFLX return from the ashes!


 Awhile back, we spewed on this site about a marriage of Apple (AAPL) and NFLX.  If Apple had taken our advice,   AAPL's  stock today likely would be above 1,000. Apple would own the media world! Instead AAPL stock is declining wholeheartedly. Meanwhile the Street has a new found love for NFLX. 


Five months ago, NFLX had fallen to a low of 52.81. Carl Icahn came along the scene smelling a under-valued company buying 10% of NFLX. Today Icahn has doubled his money. Icahn wants NFLX to be taken over by a cash-rich company. There aren't too many of those around with the resources to buy NFLX. Of course AAPL has the cash but not the will.  MSFT and Google are more likely candidates. NFLX  on the meantime plans to grow by extending it's services in the international arena and coming our with it's own content. Already approx. 33 million are on NFLX. NFLX's ceo is thinking about getting it up to 60-80 million. 


This comes to an interesting analogy. Is Apple (aapl) where NFLX was 5 months ago? Apple's stock is remarkedly undervalued!  More likely than not, AAPL will hit bottom sometime in February. Expect some positive developments thereafter and be ready to enter  APPL's return to market dominance!  It should be interesting.


 Be ready! The market is being flooded with new money! Icahn isn't going to stop his push for NFLX to be acquired by another company. Another company buying out NFLX could  push NFLX's  stock to 300 !!!! Remember NFLX was at 300 before the CEO got greedy and raised subscription fees. This mistake wouldn't happen again. AAPL won't sit idle if it sees GOOG or MSFT making a run on NFLX. Expect NFLX stock to sky rocket! NFLX's posion pill won't stop the action. Remember there's no quit in AAPL, the same can be said for GOOG.


 The war continues for dominance among AMZN, GOOG, and APPL. In the meantime, players such as Icahn will make it happen!


Disclosure: Current position in NFLX. Reference, see link below


http://www.peopleandpicks.com/blog/MightyMo/4135477/NFLX-heading-upwards/

Tags : AAPL   NFLX AAPL GOOG MSFT  

18 Comment(s):

Author JohntheWizard     Date January 25, 2013 01:34 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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If Pessimism is for losers, what about optimism and realism?
Author MightyMo     Date January 25, 2013 09:20  Edited: January 25, 2013 by MightyMo Abuse this post Report Abuse
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In the end, we only regret the chances we didn't take.
Author MightyMo     Date January 25, 2013 10:10 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Cramer said to sell but NFLX soaring in the early go....
Author JohntheWizard     Date January 25, 2013 14:16 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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In the end, we only regret the chances we missed and the stupidities we made.
Author MightyMo     Date January 25, 2013 23:25  Edited: January 25, 2013 by MightyMo Abuse this post Report Abuse
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NFLX, the subject of this thread, continues to soar. We sold 35% of holdings today for a good two day profit.
Author MightyMo     Date January 26, 2013 00:49 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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NFLX : "I think it has some more room to run here," says Eric Jackson, founder of IronFire Capital , explaining that we have yet to see the impact of analyst upgrades, short covering and finally profit taking. "So I think for the next couple of weeks this thing could continue to go, and it could potentially go a lot farther than that. If we've seen anything with Netflix it's that once momentum breaks a certain way, the thing can go for a long long time."
Author JaiH     Date January 26, 2013 15:16  Edited: January 26, 2013 by MightyMo Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Playing for earning surprises is not taking a chance, it is called gambling.
Author MightyMo     Date January 26, 2013 17:32  Edited: January 26, 2013 by MightyMo Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Sounds more like jealosy. Besides, is following Carl Icahn a gamble? Oh, wait a minute, he's a billionaire. Besides, all indications was that NFLX was coming back as other companies are licking at the chops for the NFLX jewels. Eurr uh, sInce we're talking about gambling, what are the come bets , over/under on AAPL's stock being higher or lower in 2014...and don't say it depends on the overall stock market.....
Author JohntheWizard     Date January 26, 2013 23:36 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Mo,

When do you think or predict that the dipping of Apple is such that we miss a chance not to buy it?

In four months, Apple lost 38% since its peak in September.. You advise here to "always" sell when your gain starts to shrinki and buy on dips. You also state that there will be "always" exceptions to that rule for yourself. You stated repeatedly that Apple is for you such an exception.

In that sense, Netflix was a great pick. Again, what about Apple? Could you give us some hints as under what objective conditions you are making exceptions to your own investment rules?

John
Author MightyMo     Date January 27, 2013 10:46  Edited: January 27, 2013 by MightyMo Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I try to follow a rule "Never let a profit turn into a loss'. There are 100 technical reasons to sell AAPL but no major fundamental reasons. Since accumulating it since 2009, am holding a paper profit.
I would see how AAPL's new leadership reacts this year to the Street's current view of it and it's competition before buying more. It would not surprise me however if APPL's lows are met in February. AAPL's PE is somewhere over 8, a dividend of approx 2.25%, no debt and a massive amount of cash, and new products in the pipeline. Apple's store margins are rank # 1 of all brick and mortar retailers.
Author JohntheWizard     Date January 28, 2013 05:32 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Mo,

Thanks for your explanation. There is indeed a subtle difference between "never let a profit turn into a loss" and "always sell when your gain starts to shrink".

Over the past reporting quarter, Apple's net margin mildly declined from 27.1% to 25.3%, still excellent compared to any other stock: 13.1% is the net margin of the sector and 8.3% of the total S&P500. P/E DURING THE REPPORTING QUARTER was 12x, compared to 16x for the sector and total S&P500. In terms of non-forward looking fundamentals, the stock was undervalued.

I do not hold the stock because of reasons you know. But if I would hold it already for a long period, I would sell it now and take my profit. To each his own.

Author InvestmentMAGE     Date January 28, 2013 09:39 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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John,
Why do you keep deleting your posts?

MAGE
Author MightyMo     Date January 28, 2013 20:57 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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John,
The link below is a guy saying to buy Apple, I'm on hold, and you're saying it's a sell. Ok, I'll listen, why a sell?

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/apple-analyst-thinks-stock-steal-price-183909030.html
Author JohntheWizard     Date January 29, 2013 10:03 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Mo,

I know that most analysts covering Apple (some 57 analysts) still see it as a buy, a few as a hold and practically none as a sell although it has been shifting recently. Even if their net margin drops by 10 points this reporting year, its income statement and balance sheet remain exceptionally strong. However, like with technical analysis, I see too often that fundamentals and share price don't correlate well enough to base my investment strategies on it.

Despite Apple has great fundamentals that I calculate myself directly from their SEC-filings as I do for another 6000 stocks, the stock is simply too volatile to appear on any of my watch lists. So it will simply not show up in my own investment strategies when my program spots it as a dipping opportunity for a long deal or topping opportunity for a short deal. That is why I would not hold on to it, buy it or sell it. If I would use your watch lists of your various accounts here at P&P, my program would have longed it several times and shorted it at peaks successfully. But that game is simply not my cup of tea.
Author JohntheWizard     Date January 29, 2013 14:10 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Mage,

I only saw your question just now.

You asked me to restore a post a long time ago and I e-mailed you the post.

Apparently, you are the only person that notices it and wants to know why I am doing it.

The answer to your question lies in my last sentence.

Very few people are left here and willing to share their honest views. That small number of people stands in large contrast to the many recommendations that posts tend to get here. To me, not only the numbers and game ratings appear to be unreliable but the appreciation of posts appears to me to be faked too. I tested that in different ways. I know that my blogs are still read by a few interested readers, and they usually read them shortly after I post them. When I delete them, nobody appears to miss them except you. That is one of my hypotheses verified by experiment. So let me ask you the opposite question: Why don’t you delete your blogs?

As you say, invest wisely,

John
Author MightyMo     Date January 29, 2013 15:42  Edited: January 29, 2013 by MightyMo Abuse this post Report Abuse
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3J the Joker.. SILENCE on NFLX. No sell pick on NFLX either. Could it be that the JOKER agrees with me?.
Author MightyMo     Date January 29, 2013 15:45  Edited: January 29, 2013 by MightyMo Abuse this post Report Abuse
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In regard to the 'delete posts' question. I've gone back a few times only to find the post has been deleted. Sometimes I want to respond to it but only after doing some reflection... maybe it'll be better if you left them on a little longer....
that said, I have posts that go back to the beginning of this site.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date January 29, 2013 19:39  Edited: January 31, 2013 by MightyMo Abuse this post Report Abuse
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6 Mo picks ann I'll be at 20 pages ov open picks...including a single buy call >>> FST. Ya skeeerd? Oiyay, we "know" it's neva time to "buy the pullback"......no? :-) 3J
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