MackTheKnife's Blog : Happy Birthday, Baby Bull!

Hi Mack!

That's it? It's a new bull market? No more bankruptcies, housing crisis, foreclosures, or deflation? PASS THE CHAMPAIGN ALREADY! I want the next headache.

Good Luck but watch out for the summer hangover! I'm guessin it'll start around June/July.
Burt

Howdy, Burt!

That's it? It's a new bull market? No more bankruptcies, housing crisis, foreclosures, or deflation?

Bankruptcies, deflation/inflation, foreclosures, and housing crisis are all terms we here at the home office of the completely fictional Druids Investment Group -- Can You DIG It? -- associate directly (as opposed to indirectly) not with the U.S. equity market but with the U.S. economy. Moreover, I have observed the correlation of these two entities to have been less than 1.0 over time.

As indicated in Lions, and Tigers, and Bears! Oh, My! (http://tinyurl.com/yeyb9jc), it is my conceit that words -- and the meanings of words -- are more important to me than they are to most stock-market operators. With this in mind, I note it is my practice to retrospectively determine a Bear Market has begun when the relevant price has fallen more than 20% from its most recent significant high level and a Bull Market has started when the relevant price has risen more than 20% from its most recent significant low level.

In the case of the S&P 500 last year, I retrospectively determined Mar 6 was the date of death for its old bear market and the date of birth for its new bull market. I made this determination Mar 18 when SPX had risen more than 20% -- to 803.24 from 666.79.

PASS THE CHAMPAIGN ALREADY! I want the next headache.

In agreement with the Friends of Bill W., I wish to acknowledge my behavior Friday night was ill-advised, and I am happy to report it was significantly better Saturday night -- except, of course, for that regrettable incident involving the lampshade.

Good Luck but watch out for the summer hangover! I'm guessin it'll start around June/July.

Based on my S&P 500 seasonality studies -- as suggested in September Is the Cruellest Month: http://tinyurl.com/nhekhx -- I personally am focused more on the fall and less on the summer in terms of a possible market accident, but your time frame is reasonable, as well.

Good luck!

MackTheKnife

So just to confirm Mack. If the markets fall 20% from SPX 1150 we are back in a Bear Market? Oyi what a Rolla Coasta! (currently living in Boston)

Thanks Mack!
Burt

Howdy, Burt!

So just to confirm Mack. If the markets fall 20% from SPX 1150 we are back in a Bear Market?

In my simple-minded -- albeit well-defined -- view of life, the universe, and everything, I indeed would consider the S&P 500 to be in a new bear market were it to move below 920.36 before it moves above 1,150.45. Of course, I also believe there is an intermediate probability SPX may reach a new significant high level in advance of its anticipated consolidation, possibly within the next trading week, so the relevant figures could change a bit soon.

Oyi what a Rolla Coasta! (currently living in Boston)

As ever . . .

Thanks Mack!

My pleasure.

Good luck!

MackTheKnife