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Jonock
P&P Score: 0.71   Points: -169.87   Accuracy: 30.55%   Average Pick Score: -0.24   Annual Return: -6.28% (-24.61% since 3/13/08)  

Jonock's Blog : If you Knew it was wrong,,Why did you do it?

Date September 4, 2010    Comments Comments (14)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (211)   
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While investors know they made investment mistakes, and swear never, ever to repeat them again. Some of us only have a general idea of what these mistakes are, or, for that matter,even why we continue to made them over and over again. Why do we think and feel and behave as we do? Why did we act in a way that today, in hindsight, seems so obviously wrong? Only by understanding the answers to these questions can we begin to improve our financial future. Smarter people than myself have done studies and come up with some theories and answers on the problem, it's called behavioral finance. This is how behavioral finance works. Most investors are intelligent people, neither irrational nor insane. But behavioral finance tells us we are also normal, with brains that are often filled with emotions that are often overflowing. These emotions can affect the decision making abilities of people. The more emotional involvement the investor has in an issue the poorer your decisions will be involving the issue.

What we need is a decision making method that removes our emotions from the decision making process. This is where tools come to our aid. Humans , usually become emotionally involved, in all their activities whether its buying a car or selling a stock, your emotions are included in your decision making process. And since we cannot control our emotions at will, we need to find tools to help us make sound, objective decisions even when our emotions are 180 out of phase with the decision at hand.

Let me give you one example. Investors tend to think about each stock we purchase as an individual entity with unique qualities and characteristics, distinct from each of the other stocks in our portfolio. I am sure you have read the advice "don't fall in love with your stocks". We are happy to realize "paper" gains in each stock quickly, but procrastinate when it comes to realizing losses. Why? Because while regret over a paper loss stings, we can console ourselves in the hope that, in time, the stock will roar back into a gain after all, doesn't it still have the potential it had when you picked it?. Do you know anybody who has done this? The emotionless tool I use for selling stock is the old "trailing stop", placed at the time of purchase. I place a trailing percentage stop based on an average of the volatility on some selected period of time for the stock.

It doesn't matter which process, from buying through selling of stock, take the emotion out with the use of tools. You'll make more money.

14 Comment(s):

Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 4, 2010 11:33 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Well, you started off strong...like you were going to give some GOOG advice. But you finished by giving the werst advice possibull. A trailing stop? Yer joking I hope. Name me one stock that didn't generate a negative return to the shareholder who had a trailing stop set on Fat Finger Th, May 6th. Take yer time and research it. Better yet, give us advice by showing an example of sumphin you own and where you have your trailing stop set so that we kin ssscheck back in a few weeks and see why you lost $$$ again. You are advocating stops in this market? Do yerself a flavor....just stay out of the market altogether *-) 3J
Author Jonock     Date September 4, 2010 12:25 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Hi 3J,
Thank you for your comments , I value them. They always seem sincere and have a valid point. They are not malicious in nature, thanks for treading lightly on me,
Do you use a tool/indicator for when to sell in current volatile markets? How do you pick the sell price , to insures you don't ride it back down the dips?
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 4, 2010 20:51 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Of course I do...let's look at 2 examaples. First, JaiH's MissTake in BLTI that he made. It'll actually be a GOOG example since it is right now at a point where he "should" take the emotion out of the trade and take a small loss cuz if he continues to hold...the small loss will become a BIG loss again. I advised against buying in the first place whenst it twas at 1.02 and JH wreck-o-mended it cuz thru was a signal on the chart at that time that said it was going to trade belowst .95. Well, that low was taken out and new signals have now come in al the way down to this week's .61 centavos low that say even that low will be taken out. Since then the stock has rallied and held the .90 area twice..long enuff to make an eeeeasy exit and avoid the coming move back belowst .61. I woulda sold without hesitation and taken the 10% loss personally. The fackto the matter is I wouldn't even have bot since "new low's pending" were signaled with each move lower. *-)

Example #2 would be my position in CSCX. I began buying at appx 1.30 and made an additional buy below 1.15. It then moved below $1 dollah but no signals that it twas moving lower were generated so I simply held. It has since rallied to 2.45. I have already taken 2/3 of my o-rigi-nal position off on that move. The subsequent pullbacks have also left a series of lower lows that need to be breached...the lowest at 1.58. Therefore, if CSCX takes out 1.58 with no new signals of lower lows pending I will add to my position. If it twas to rally to 1.85 which is a substantial move away from 1.58 I would sell my remaining position and look to add once it gives the "all's clear" signal since I like CSCX as a core long term holding. *-) See, I toldja this sheeeyit is eeeeasy. So eeeasy it's stupid really....no stops, no werries, no chance of getting eliminated before the BIG move up....only down. ..."usually" :-) 3J
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 4, 2010 21:22 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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BTW, the "windup" on the whole thang is the same as I have been saying all along now that the markets have been taken over and controlled by compooters. Unless you are positioned "before" the next significant move begins you have zero chance at making any chachingo. The fokes who bot the past week will have thur gains eliminated in 2 daze o'trading...and the painfully elimination will begin either Mon or Tues. The SPX needs another 1% up move on the open Tues to assure higher prices....udderwise it will be a quick turnaround. So watch the open for 'tells" ...a move down on the open will simply set up the top. There "should be" a retest of Fri's highs but again...this market is controlled by compooters so that is never assured. For most fokes it is best to just step aside or to postion themselves with very long term put options. The longer term trend is decidedly down. The March 2009 lows will be breached without question *-) 3J
Author JaiH     Date September 5, 2010 13:40 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I knew it was wrong, but I did it because of all this spewage from 3j. I should have listened to Rimmie.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 5, 2010 14:03 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Jist reporting da news befo it actually happens....cuz ya "know" it's gonna happen like I sed it twood...BLTI is just one example that affected you personamally :-) Joo kin do what joo wanna do cuz it IS yer $$$ afterall. I mean...it "wuz" yer $$$. Now say bye bye. :-) 3J
Author JaiH     Date September 5, 2010 14:22  Edited: September 5, 2010 by JaiH Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Buying BLTI was wrong and selling BLTI is wrong. Two Wrongs don't make it right. I don't panic because of price fluctuations. I was buying when it was going down. You don't work with your emotions like tha man said. You follow a plan. The plan is to monitor their sales revenue which will be reported on Nov 4. If their revenue beats the analysts estimate I will hold it for another quarter, if not I will sell. Price changes for this stock are garbage, it is thinnly traded and moves a lot where a buy or sell is made. The risk is company is losing money and may go bankrupt. The CEO has a lot more shares than I do, he is trying everything possible to cut costs, so I will take the risk. The sales of their new product are very strong, they can't keep up with the demand and have a backlog. So there is hope. It will add 30 million dollars to their end user sales for a year which is a lot for a 17 million dollar company. Most of the weak holders are out, they all sold last two weeks. It was back to normal on Friday with a volume of 20000 and they were mostly buys. I don't watch charts and nonsense like unconfirmed tops and bottoms. That is for novices. I play like mutual fund managers do, they are the professionals not the bloggers on this site.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 5, 2010 15:28 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Ohhhhh kaaaaay, no problemo. Like me already sed. Twas yer $$$ and ifn you doan keer about it well I certainly don't. :-) I watch the charts, I toldja waht the charts sed whenst you wrecked it at 1.02. I wuz "correct" cuz the charts doan lie. The .61 low set will also go bye bye. That's what the chart seys...Mr Mutual Fund mgr. Latta ooooon whenst (not if) you have lost 60% of yer $$$ insted of 40% I "might" come back and try and save yerazz. It all depends on what the chart says of course. Trust me, I have noooooo objecktion to amatuers gettin thur azzes kicked so that I kin benefit. Thaaas what I do afterall....take advantage of the terminally clueless...without regret and without sorrow :-) 3J
Author JaiH     Date September 5, 2010 15:39 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The only guys who believe this unconfirmed lows and highs is you 3j and burtmen. Look at your p&P score and see where you are. Burtmans score is all fake and he should be with you at the bottom. This charts and nonsense does not work. Get some sense in your head.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date September 5, 2010 18:26 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Hey, thanx for noticing my rapid move towards da leaderbored. By my guesstimation I will be either on page 3 or page 2 by the end ov this week....all becuz o'the charts too. "Neat" ...ainna? In the meantime >>>> *-) >>> :-) 3J
Author TickerBandit     Date September 5, 2010 19:28  Edited: September 5, 2010 by TickerBandit Abuse this post Report Abuse
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Buying BLTI was wrong and selling BLTI is wrong.

Nonsense. When one buys a loser stock. He does what losers do. If buying this loser was wrong ... then holding this loser is even worse. BLTI holds no more promise than any other ticker. There is no reason to hold it over any other ticker. JaiH is doing what losers do and my advice to everyone is NEVER do what he is doing with BLTI. :-)
Author JaiH     Date September 5, 2010 21:55 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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I like BLTI, it is a 20 dollar stock trading for one dollar. Obviously there is bad news around and it is risky. Buying the stock was wrong because I can't afford the risk, but there is nothing wrong with risk taking. It is normal if you want to make serious money. Now that I bought it, it is wrong to sell it arbitarily. You follow your plan.
Author JaiH     Date September 5, 2010 22:11 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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TBs advice to everybody seems to be not to take any risk, just keep your money in cash like he will be doing shortly.
Author TickerBandit     Date September 5, 2010 23:10 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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No my advice is "Don't be like JaiH ... " :-)

Birds of feather ... JaiH ... do flock together. And BLTI is another in long string of down-trending tickers you seem to "like".
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