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Jonock
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Jonock's Blog : Are you going to miss the rally?

Date February 16, 2010    Comments Comments (4)    Rate this post Recommend This Post (65)   
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Traditionally indicators guaranteeing positive economic direction for the U.S. economy have been:
1-- Housing supply < 8 months.
2-- Personal saving > 7% of personal disposable income.
3-- Percentage of total debt service charges < 15% of household net income.

So currently where are these indicators ?

1-- Housing supply: 7.2 Months supply December 2009.
2-- Personal savings 4.8 % December 2009.
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
3--Percentage of total debt service charge: 17.76 % ( 2009 Q3)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/
The US Gov home purchasing incentives have temporarily gotten housing in to positive territory, barely meeting one out of the three requirements. With stopped incentives housing has already started to slip back. There is no sustenance to the current market. Basic recovery requirements have not been met.
Sell in to current market strength and keep your power dry for the next round. Cash is king.



4 Comment(s):

Author JoeJustJoe     Date February 16, 2010 19:17 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The GOOG news is that the criminals on Wall St have at least been able to get the stock prices o'thur soon to be bankrupt banks above the price level wherst Uncle Ben sed they needed to be "ifn" we fell to 10% unemployment. Not that 10% unemployment even matters being that it is also anudder govmint statistic....which of course always have been and most likely always will be a pile o'dawg chit. Meanwhilst, home prices in my area are making a steady decline and are "almost" back to late 1990's levels. I ainna gone quit until homes kin be bot in my area for early 1990's prices. Of course that's a piece o'cake fer a registerd Superhero like meself. Getting AAPL to fill that gapola down over yonder at $50 dollahs "appears" that it'll be a tad tuffer!.....naaaaaah :-) 3J
Author MightyMo     Date February 17, 2010 18:45 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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JONACK

U left out the two biggest...Jobs data and consumer spending
Author Nomadamon     Date February 21, 2010 11:58 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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When was the last time personal savings in the USA was > 7% Would you believe that in 2005 the savings rate was actually negative, for the frst time since 1933!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11098797/

How did the FED respond?
The central bank meets on Tuesday, when it is expected it will boost interest rates for a 14th time. (Because people kept spending!)

And then the market rallied.

So I guess I can't see how personal savings rate indicates anything about the overall economic direction of the country, or how that indicates whether or not the market will rally. No such correlation exists.
Author JoeJustJoe     Date February 21, 2010 15:25 Abuse this post Report Abuse
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The significance o'the Fed move this past week is that it is a signal that liquidity is going to be pulled away from the moneyrunner criminal enterprises on Wall St like GS, BAC, JPM, etc. So basically the moneyrunners must now werk within thur own "broken n bankrupt" framewerks to generate the types o'gains they have seen since Uncle Fester, Little Timmy Geithner, and Uncle Ben gar-own-teed that the moneyrunners would be made whole by AIG. That'll be purty much impossible to do going forward. Noooow, funnymentals never have matterd concerning stock price. Ifn this wuz the case then a stock like General Growth Properties never would have gotten up from belowst $1 dollah. *-) Ifn the same route wuz taken with the moneyrunner banks as wuz taken with General Motors or Chrysler...ie...the sharholders were painfully eliminated whilst the bidnesses were allowed to survive well we "woulda" been ALOT closer to getting the economonomy turned around by now. Insted the O'Bombas, Congress, the S.E.C, and of course the right hand o'the money runners, the Fed, gave into the banking lobbyists. These criminals were given a license to steal from every man, wooooman, and child in the United States of America. The recent rate hike was "obviously" a result o'what happend in Massachooshitz and now O'Bomba realizes he must change his stance and so do many ranking members in Congress....but I'll tell ya right cheeeya right now....it is already too late. The ONLY question left is whether the moneyrunners will drive the indimacies to at least meet 52 week highs...or whether thur'll be a pullback foist. But make no Miss Take about it. The damage that was done under "the savior" Barack O'Bomba only wersened the mess the Bushies left this country in. The correction in stocks will now be MUCH deeper than we 'could have" expected....many more companies will have thur stocks trade in bankruptcy. And don't kid yerself...the problems within the banking seckter have only been magnified cuz they weren't solved. The only thing that happend is "the criminal element" ran off with your money, yer kid's money....and "probly" yer grandkid's money too. And you won't see it again....so you may as well position yerself "proberly" for the coming collapse o'the American system o'capitalism. *-) 3J
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