Traditionally indicators guaranteeing positive economic direction for the U.S. economy have been:
1-- Housing supply < 8 months.
2-- Personal saving > 7% of personal disposable income.
3-- Percentage of total debt service charges < 15% of household net income.
So currently where are these indicators ?
1-- Housing supply: 7.2 Months supply December 2009.
2-- Personal savings 4.8 % December 2009.
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
3--Percentage of total debt service charge: 17.76 % ( 2009 Q3)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/
The US Gov home purchasing incentives have temporarily gotten housing in to positive territory, barely meeting one out of the three requirements. With stopped incentives housing has already started to slip back. There is no sustenance to the current market. Basic recovery requirements have not been met.
Sell in to current market strength and keep your power dry for the next round. Cash is king.
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February 16, 2010
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