The latest economic data put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. All the talking heads are telling us the recession is over, good times are just starting. Stocks are a bargain , and the next quarter will be better, we dodged the economic apocalypse, a remarkable recover by any standard. So why are the institutional investors staying on the sidelines? (as evidence by the low volume on this weeks buying) and selling into this rally (gains given back in final hour of trading).
There are some technical reasons, of course, that would make an experienced investor cautious. A few that come to my mind are:
1- Vast quantities of federal spending have created an “artificial economy”
2- The unemployment rate is still increasing
3- Manufacturing index fell short of predictions.
4- Fed Rate remains unchanged, with no guidelines from the Fed for future direction.
The above technicals, not with standing, the conventional wisdom has always been “ Never fight the Fed”, go with the flow.
So why aren't we pouring our nest eggs in to the quality stocks at what seem to be at bargain prices?
Because we have lost faith in our system. In your gut you know that the statisticians have manipulated the data, no one has any faith in these numbers. They missed the “crash”, didn't they? How come they think they are so wise now? These young well meaning politicos and economists aren't out of work and being foreclosed on, they have jobs and a regular income. There are millions of unemployed Americans who have lost fairh in the system. But without the complete faith of the American people as well as the world's investors, all the kings horses and all the kings men, cannot put the American Economy together again.
Where is your faith level on a scale of 1 to 10?
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November 5, 2009
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