Jonock's Blog : When the bear goes in to hibernation oil will come out of hibernation.

Back in August 2008 I express my opinion that oil was taking a breather during the recession. I still hold that opinion and I feel that a good indicator of the market bottom will be when the following four benchmarks are matched:
1-- Housing supply < 8 months.
2-- Personal saving > 7% of personal disposable income.
3-- Percentage of total debt service charges < 15% of household net income.
4--The turnaround of oil prices (double its current price).

Currently in the US the four benchmarks are:
1--Housing supply > 10 months
http://www.data360.org/graph_group.aspx?Graph_Group_Id=852
2--Personal savings = 5% of personal disposable income
http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/saving.htm
In defense of the average American, it was noted at the end of last quarter of 2008 the personal savings as a percent of disposable income hit a 14-year-high. With markets in turmoil and the government’s meddling in all areas of the economy, many investors are throwing up their hands and heading for the safety of a savings account, that is if they can find a bank that hasn’t gone under. Uncertainty over taxes, regulation and government interference has made traditional analysis virtually worthless. It’s impossible to plan for the long term while all the branches of the government are running “helter-skelter” with “the sky is falling” mentality. Maybe all of Washington’s madness is a plan to force the masses to start saving, a diabolical scheme, even for a Democrat.
3—Percentage of total debt service charges is still > 19% of household net income.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/
4-- Crude oil prices fell $4.26, or 9.5 percent, to $40.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange this week.