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Traditionally indicators guaranteeing positive economic direction for the U.S. economy have been:
1-- Housing supply < 8 months.
2-- Personal saving > 7% of personal disposable income.
3-- Percentage of total debt service charges < 15% of household net income.

So currently where are these indicators ?

1-- Housing supply: 7.2 Months supply December 2009.
2-- Personal savings 4.8 % December 2009.
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
3--Percentage of total debt servi…

The December 2009 unemployment rate was 10 per cent, yet the US Markets are rallying and are in an uptrend. Why? The current American stock markets are a bubble fueled by the US stimulus plan. Money is streaming out of the U.S. mint and in to the markets at a totally unprecedented rate. Proponents of President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus bill continue to insist that the massive government bailout played a decisive role in moving the economy out of the recession. I do not share this opi…

At the end of 2009 the United States National debt was $12.3 trillion and our gross domestic product was $15.56. This means that our national debt is approximately 80% of our total GNP. The majority of economist estimate that the Debt/GDP ratio could rise to approximately 90% this year, and the 95-100% range in 2011.
Analyst are also in agreement that reaching 100% "would be a serious concern from the perspective of the U.S. AAA rating." In effect the United States bond rating would be rele…

Prudent investors realize that they must make investments in emerging markets if they hope to survive as an investors in the future. But with different book-keeping rules and shaky governments how can we be sure our moneys safe?

The emerging markets are playing a bigger and bigger part in the day to day economic roller coaster we call the stock market. There are some facts that need to be taken in to consideration in regards to the major emerging markets such as South America and China. Thi…

The latest economic data put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. All the talking heads are telling us the recession is over, good times are just starting. Stocks are a bargain , and the next quarter will be better, we dodged the economic apocalypse, a remarkable recover by any standard. So why are the institutional investors staying on the sidelines? (as evidence by the low volume on this weeks buying) and selling into this rally (gains given back in final hour of trading).
There …

The Dollar Is Dying a Slow Death, says Niall 'Ascent of Money' Ferguson*, China's "current strategy is to diversify out of dollars and into commodities," Ferguson says. Furthermore, China's recent pact with Brazil to conduct trade in their local currencies is a "sign of the times."

*Niall Ferguson
Born 18 April 1964 (1964-04-18) (age 45)[1]
Glasgow, Scotland
Nationality British
Fields Financial and economic history
Institutions: Harvard University
Harvard Business School
London Sc…

All arenas of endeavor are filled with their own unique set of clichés, and investing is no different .For instance “Buy low and sell high” is the investors equivalent of “Break a leg” in acting and when you listen to the talking heads on the business networks you hear these old clichés over and over again. This incessant bombardment of babble tends to numb one's mind to the occasional gem that is worth hearing.
In this period of uncertainty as, the world markets continue in a pattern of vola…

In a Last August (Jonock's Blog : Oil is just taking a break during the Recession.) I mentioned that oil would start up when the “non-demand” factors were removed from the economic equation. As JJJ can verify, (See JJJ's comment, on original) oil is not $25 a barrel, oil is on the way up. But don’t get too, excited, remember there are three additional conditions that must be met before the economy can be declared “healthy”. They are:
1-- Housing supply < 8 months.
2-- Personal saving > 7% of…

It is spring, a time for new beginnings. It is a time for you to spring in to action. This massive infusion of government capital is slowing the bear, the economy is turning around, and oh happy days are here again, for how long?

The government's stimulus packages are a futile effort to sustain a lifestyle for the average citizen of self-involvement, instant gratification, and living way beyond their means.

This lifestyle was a bubble, created by easy credit and greedy financial institut…

Back in August 2008 I express my opinion that oil was taking a breather during the recession. I still hold that opinion and I feel that a good indicator of the market bottom will be when the following four benchmarks are matched:
1-- Housing supply < 8 months.
2-- Personal saving > 7% of personal disposable income.
3-- Percentage of total debt service charges < 15% of household net income.
4--The turnaround of oil prices (double its current price).

Currently in the US the four benchmar…