Jonock's Blog : Latest entries

The latest economic data put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. All the talking heads are telling us the recession is over, good times are just starting. Stocks are a bargain , and the next quarter will be better, we dodged the economic apocalypse, a remarkable recover by any standard. So why are the institutional investors staying on the sidelines? (as evidence by the low volume on this weeks buying) and selling into this rally (gains given back in final hour of trading).
There …

The Dollar Is Dying a Slow Death, says Niall 'Ascent of Money' Ferguson*, China's "current strategy is to diversify out of dollars and into commodities," Ferguson says. Furthermore, China's recent pact with Brazil to conduct trade in their local currencies is a "sign of the times."

*Niall Ferguson
Born 18 April 1964 (1964-04-18) (age 45)[1]
Glasgow, Scotland
Nationality British
Fields Financial and economic history
Institutions: Harvard University
Harvard Business School
London Sc…

All arenas of endeavor are filled with their own unique set of clichés, and investing is no different .For instance “Buy low and sell high” is the investors equivalent of “Break a leg” in acting and when you listen to the talking heads on the business networks you hear these old clichés over and over again. This incessant bombardment of babble tends to numb one's mind to the occasional gem that is worth hearing.
In this period of uncertainty as, the world markets continue in a pattern of vola…

In a Last August (Jonock's Blog : Oil is just taking a break during the Recession.) I mentioned that oil would start up when the “non-demand” factors were removed from the economic equation. As JJJ can verify, (See JJJ's comment, on original) oil is not $25 a barrel, oil is on the way up. But don’t get too, excited, remember there are three additional conditions that must be met before the economy can be declared “healthy”. They are:
1-- Housing supply < 8 months.
2-- Personal saving > 7% of…

It is spring, a time for new beginnings. It is a time for you to spring in to action. This massive infusion of government capital is slowing the bear, the economy is turning around, and oh happy days are here again, for how long?

The government's stimulus packages are a futile effort to sustain a lifestyle for the average citizen of self-involvement, instant gratification, and living way beyond their means.

This lifestyle was a bubble, created by easy credit and greedy financial institut…

Back in August 2008 I express my opinion that oil was taking a breather during the recession. I still hold that opinion and I feel that a good indicator of the market bottom will be when the following four benchmarks are matched:
1-- Housing supply < 8 months.
2-- Personal saving > 7% of personal disposable income.
3-- Percentage of total debt service charges < 15% of household net income.
4--The turnaround of oil prices (double its current price).

Currently in the US the four benchmar…

The bond between the citizens and their country, at the minimum, consists of a basic set of requirements and duties. On the citizens part there is support for the country both financially and through civic actions. In return the country promises: 1- To represent the citizen’s interests at the international level and 2- At the national level it issues paper promissory notes that we exchange for goods and enforce the laws of the land. This paper issued by a government is only as good as the…

Some do not believe in creation,
Nor participate in its celebration.
Religion we don't share,
For these activities we don't care.
Then why in this festive time of the year,
Did this message appear?
This message arrives for other reasons,
It is pure chance it arrives in this season.
This evening on the news I did hear,
Thousands more layoffs are very near.
Things came to mind of past times and places,
Terrible times filled with starving faces.
Back in that day when our spirits…

It is common knowledge among investors, that at the point of maximum pessimism you return to investing in common stocks because these stocks are nearest their point of maximum value. So in a recession we are left with one chore: how to best determine the exact point at which investor sentiment is the most negative. Is it possible for an investor to discern this magic turning point of negates from all the talking heads and nattering nabobs of negatism? With what degree of accuracy, if any, can su…

All of the factors have been slowly growing over our lifetimes, blatent market manipulations and subtle invisible tweaks by governments. The invention of new riskier investment vehicles in which to put our money. The encouragement of consumers to live far beyond their means with massive debt loads.

We have grown accustomed to "bigger" and "better" as an expected way of life. So when our bubble popped why wouldn't our drop be the "biggest" drop ever?. Since the creation of the Dow Jones indus…