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February 2, 2009
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US automakers are loosing money like Mad-off. This negatively affects their parts and service suppliers, which in turn, negatively affects the foreign automakers. What does it say when a dealer who is offering a buy-one-get-one-free offer on cars, can't even close a sale?
Banks are folding like pages in an Origami project book. Credit is virtually unavailable to most consumers. On top of this, US (and most foreign) consumers are out of cash and have stockpiled debt.
US automakers produce expensive gas-guzzlers while pouring money into lobbying against fuel efficiency standards.
Even though fuel prices are lower and expected to decline in the short term, consumers know that fuel costs will eventually skyrocket unless something is done to greatly reduce or eliminate our dependence on foreign oil. The recent decline in oil prices should help much of the transportation industry.
Look for bad numbers from tomorrows car and truck sales reports.
Although I expect automakers and their suppliers will underperform, I think auto parts stores and anything that can help consumers fix up their existing cars will do well. Therefore, I am long on parts stores and short on automakers and their suppliers, including companies that market new vehicles.
I did not include stocks of companies where automotive is not their only market. This includes aerospace and defense companies that may also make automotive supplies, since I believe that defense stocks will do well over the next few years. But that's for a future blog post.
Consumer Goods - Auto Manufacturers - Major - SHORT
CVR - Chicago Rivet & Machine Co.(USA)
DAI - Daimler AG(Germany)
F - Ford Motor Co.(USA)
GM - General Motors Corporation(USA)
HMC - Honda Motor Co. Ltd.(Japan)
NSANY - NISSAN MTR SPON AD(Japan)
SORL - SORL Auto Parts, Inc.(China)
TM - Toyota Motor Corp.(Japan)
TTM - Tata Motors Ltd.(India)
Consumer Goods - Auto Parts - LONG
ALV - Autoliv, Inc.(Sweden)
ARGN - Amerigon Inc.(USA)
ATC - Cycle Country Accessories Corp.(USA)
BWA - BorgWarner Inc.(USA)
CLC - CLARCOR Inc.(USA)
CSLR - Consulier Engineering Inc.(USA)
CVGI - Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.(USA)
DAN - Dana Holding Corporation(USA)
FDML - Federal-Mogul Corp.(USA)
MPAA - Motorcar Parts of America Inc.(USA)
Consumer Goods - Auto Parts - SHORT
AXL - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc.(USA)
DORM - Dorman Products, Inc.(USA)
FSYS - Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc.(USA)
GETI - GenTek Inc.(USA)
GNTX - Gentex Corp.(USA)
JCI - Johnson Controls Inc.(USA)
NOBL - Noble International, Ltd.(USA)
SMP - Standard Motor Products Inc.(USA)
SRI - Stoneridge Inc.(USA)
STRT - Strattec Security Corp.(USA)
SUP - Superior Industries International Inc.(USA)
TEN - Tenneco Inc.(USA)
TKS - Tomkins plc(United Kingdom)
TRW - TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.(USA)
VC - Visteon Corp.(USA)
WBC - WABCO Holdings Inc.(USA)
WSCI - WSI Industries Inc.(USA)
Services - Auto Parts Stores - LONG
PBY - Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack(USA)
PRTS - U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc.(USA)
Services - Auto Parts Stores - SHORT
AAP - Advance Auto Parts Inc.(USA)
AZO - AutoZone Inc.(USA)
ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive Inc.(USA)
Services - Auto Parts Wholesale - LONG
LKQX - LKQ Corp.(USA)
Services - Auto Parts Wholesale - SHORT
CRV - Coast Distribution System Inc.(USA)
GPC - Genuine Parts Co.(USA)
Services - Auto Dealerships - SHORT
ABG - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.(USA)
AN - AutoNation Inc.(USA)
GPI - Group 1 Automotive Inc.(USA)
KMX - CarMax Inc.(USA)
LAD - Lithia Motors Inc.(USA)
PAG - Penske Automotive Group, Inc.(USA)
RUSHB - Rush Enterprises, Inc.(USA)
SAH - Sonic Automotive Inc.(USA)
Services - Auto Dealerships - LONG
CPRT - Copart Inc.(USA)
CRMT - America's Car-Mart Inc.(USA)
Other - LONG
DTG - Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc.(USA)
CAS - AM Castle & Co.(USA)
Automotive ETF's - SHORTS
FSAVX - Fidelity Select Automotive (MUTF)
RESOURCES
Automobile - Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobiles
Automotive industry - Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive
Automotive market - Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_market
Big Three (automobile manufacturers) - Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_automobile_manufacturers
Automotive industry crisis of 2008-2009
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_crisis_of_2008
Bearish On Auto Industry Stocks - Zacks
http://www.dailymarkets.com/stocks/2008/12/14/bearish-on-auto-industry-stocks/
Car Brands Americans Love - Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/18/cars-americans-love-forbeslife-cx_jm_0819cars.html?partner=autos_newsletter
Automotive Industry Analysis GM, DaimlerChrysler, Toyota, Ford, Honda (Nov 2004)
http://www.academicmind.com/unpublishedpapers/business/management/2004-11-000aaa-automotive-industry-analysis.html
Automaker Rankings 2007: The Environmental Performance of Car Companies
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/vehicle_impacts/cars_pickups_and_suvs/automaker-rankings-2007.html
Auto Financing Datapoint of the Day - Seeking Alpha
http://seekingalpha.com/article/117975-auto-financing-datapoint-of-the-day
Ford's the Strongest of the U.S. Automakers: So What? - Seeking Alpha
http://seekingalpha.com/article/117898-ford-s-the-strongest-of-the-u-s-automakers-so-what
Will Ford Survive without a Bailout? - Seeking Alpha
http://seekingalpha.com/article/117558-will-ford-survive-without-a-bailout
The Global Race to Save the Auto Industry
http://seekingalpha.com/article/117322-the-global-race-to-save-the-auto-industry
December Auto Sales - Briefing.com
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-auto.html
