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January 3, 2009
Edited: January 3, 2009
Share ThisAs the we begin 2009, it appears the pundits are divided into two camps. Those who see the glass half full, and those who see the glass half empty.
Half full:
Sam Stovall: Market strategist of Standard & Poor's , the S&P 500 will recover to around 1025.
Marc Faber: Editor and Publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, feels 2009 will be a better year. "In other words, the S&P 500 will recover to around 1,100-1,200.
Half empty:
Robert Stovall: of Wood Asset Management (Sams 82 year old father) I've been in the business for 55 years, and this is the worst [bear market] I've lived through as an active participant," he said. "There could be more trouble ahead, and I expect there would be.
Nouriel Roubini These are things most economists barely understand, Roubini said. Were in uncharted territory where standard economic theory isnt helpful. A good third of the regional banks wont make it,
Stephen Roach: Look for a post-bubble world to remain in recession throughout 2009, followed by an anemic recovery, at best, in 2010.
Paul Krugman: believes we are in a "liquidity trap"
The point is that it may take a lot longer than many people think before the U.S. economy is ready to live without bubbles.
Undecided:
Since I am not so good at reading tea leaves, I have to review the wisdom of these sages.
Who is right:
Whatever happens, the Stovall family will be right.
I must admit a bias toward Stovall the Elder, as experience does tend to be a great teacher.
Recommendation: Regardless of what happens, helicopter Ben surely will continue to print money. (ie inflation)
http://www.peopleandpicks.com/index.php?page=blog&action=view_post&id=2761199&user_id=166262
Buy: svu, gsg, gdx, dgp, tbt
Sell: tlt
Caveat: Although Chairman Bernanke will be doing everything in his power to fight deflation, he could fall into the Prohibition Paradox, in that he creates the very thing he is trying to prevent.
