Burtman's Blog : Manipulation (As sung by Carly Simon)

LOL Burt.

Great parody. Carly Simon. Fantastic voice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hruKnbxAsrw

Thanks TB

How do you seen Monday evolving? Would like to hear your input.

Thanks
Burt

Lots of GOOG news in the FRE n FNM take under....most importantly....I sold my entire stake in FRE with no less than a GAHUUUGE gain on ALL entries! LOL Did I "out Uncle Fester" Uncle Fester?>>>>You betcha! *-) There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that before the year is out we will see a stock market crash of historical n hysterical proportions....no doubt about it. I will use the resulting strength in the bank stocks to up my chort position in ABK and get ready to long the SKF. I am also hoping the dollar strengthens so the gold mining stocks get crushed for another 30-40% across the bored. I can't believe I am actually turning bullish on the mining shares for the first time in years. :-) I doubt the HUI will get to its "eventual" long term buy level of sub 150 here short term, so I suspect it will only be a trade. Long term we head for a gigundo deflationary spiral the likes of which the baby boomers have never seen, "If" you bought a home anytime after the year 1999 and you wish to preserve your equity I would suggest you "sell ifn you can find a buyer" *-) In the end I pray that not only the crooks who perpetrated the scam end up in jail...that would include Tres Sec Hank "uncle Fester" Paulson...I also hope we the sheeple have the guts to stand up and do the things that will assure this never happens again. But I doubt it....I SIRIously doubt it...we ARE the sheeple after all. :-) At least let's acknowledge than John McCain is not the solution but part of the problem. Is Obama any better>>>>I doubt it! *-) 3J

Burt,

If I attempt to predict it, I know I will be wrong.

But my sense is that, if for no other reason other than "it can", it will rally. The question I haven't answered is whether the further enslavement of the masses is going to actually work. If it winds up working, there could be a sustained rally.

Sometimes its good to just sit back and try to work out what may actually be happening. We are being told that the Government is bringing in its strong balance sheet saving Fannie and Freddie. That is false, nothing could be further from the truth.

The balance sheets of the taxpaying citizens are being brought in but they will be asked to only pay the interest on their capital. Amazing ... isn't it. They have to pay interest (in the form of taxes) on their own capital. In any event, the money will be provided primarily by the FED (and perhaps Gross and his cronies) and the American taxpayer will be paying the interest. That's the "deal".

Since the primary purpose of this intervention is to save the Federal Reserve Banking system, and since the Federal Reserve is a willing investor in the scheme, one must ask the question as to why the Federal Reserve doesn't make the investment directly to Fannie and Freddie. The answer is clear to me. The Federal Reserve is unwilling to speculate. They see taxing the public as a more advantageous solution to their problem. The public will lose on their investment in Fannie and Freddie while their institutions will make claims on the guarantees not losing anything. After losing their investment, the taxpaying citizens will "pay interest" on "their" bad investment for the remainder of their life and as you pointed out their children's lives.

Its a bad situation because what we have is complete failure of a "self correcting free-market system". It is my opinion that this development could ultimately be the downfall. By that I mean, the measure are so drastic and so corrupt in purpose and intent, that problems must be far greater (I admit) than I ever thought. The powers of intervention far exceeded my expectations. We have some rough sledding. I just don't know when it happens.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks for the insite TB and 3J,

To be honest I am confused. The vix looks like it has a few days of pullback but technically the overall trend looks up. But then again, the charts don't factor in Hank and Ben. The question will be "when do the free markets grab the reins back"? I think I'll take your advice TB and just sit back and see where this goes. We may have a mass amount of short covering. Gotta find a good stock tonight that's heavily shorted. We'll talk more tomorrow.
Good luck tomorrow morning.
Burt

Burt,

I think a guy has to throw out indications of the trade prior to the news. It may be meaningless now. The market is going to react to the news first and it could be ultimately down on the day. Man, who knows? All the weakening trade over the past 3 weeks could be eclipsed tomorrow also. A very challenging environment to trade.

Good fortune to you tomorrow.

We'll just have to wait and see what Monday brings. Friday's 'hammer' could be confirmed as a bottom if Monday's volume is high enough, but we are in a correction mode now which means that anything else would just mean more selling the rally. Market futures are up high, so we'll see if we can get some elation in the market and confirm the VIX July and last week top at $24.5.

I'll be on the road so I won't know until its over, probably better that way anyway.

Goog luck.

TB, don't forget my BOOYAH. *-) 3J

Hereyago there 3J. Big O BOOOYAAAAAH toyahh.

It occurs to me that financial stocks are singled out here as the beneficiaries. The taxpayer will pay taxes to the Govmint who will pay interest to the FED, Fed member banks will have losses alleviated by Fannie/Freddie guarantees. The taxpayer will never pay off the debt incurred to float the losses of Fannie and Freddie. That may not be good for consumer discretionary spending ... forever.

Now the "conservatorship". Paulson remarked that common is first in line to "absorb losses", then preferred, then the taxpayer's senior preferred. So how will it be determined how the losses will "be absorbed". Have any ideas? When the government borrows money to shore up Fannie and Freddie, will they just say. "OK common, your shares are worth only this much"? And then later, "Well now we figure they aren't worth anything" I wonder how that will work?

One thang is fo sho....with the SKF opening below 100 it "looks like"....we are being given the greatest opportunity we will get this year for capital gains as a result of capital losses. :-) I'm gettin downright giddy! Looka my WM too...WOW! Howza bout a double da BOOYAH?!! LOL I didn't read the gorey details of this deal. I know that FRE n FNM were carrying many mortgages that are actually worth 50% of the mortgage amounts since I know for sure many banks were willing to lend up to appx 50% more than what houses were worth in my area. (150K loan on a home with a true market value of 100K). We "should be" extremely angry that this fraud was allowed to materialize. But that was life under da Bushies...the worst Prez in history and hopefully a once in 3 generation phenomnon. And as I previously stated, the stench of Dubya will be upon us for years to come. *-) I don't particularly care about the particulars either. As always....I am only in it for the money. :-) 3J

Alright 3J -
Your majic number of $25 for UYG was just hit. How much for a class at the university of funnymental financial funnymoney management? How long are the semesters and when would I earn my degree?
Once again, amazing call.
Burt

Hold on a second Burtski...I just crunched some numbers. Well, actually I sprinkled em over my Capn Crunch cereal I was eating fer breakfust so they got "Capn Crunched"....but then I threw em in my machine and came up with this majical number for the SKF>>>>87.50. Soooo, let's see how close she come to dat right theeya. :-) BTW, I said the maximum for the move in UYG would be appx 25.50. But, as a sidenote, I also didn't think DUG would make it through $40.....The windup? Even though I'm a freakin genius I'm still a moron....so pleez don't ferget that...OK? *-) You owe me $5.50 now. :-)

Burt,

It is uncanny. Maybe he really does have a time machine?

Hey one thing I noticed guys is that UYG is trading almost 3-times the volume of SKF. People are flying into UYG and its being met with selling. Normally UYG trades a multiple of volume in the 1.6 times give or take .3.

Many people are betting on continuing rally in UYG. Better keep a close eye.

Trust me TB, nobody will see the massive fall coming in the financials. LEH to become a sub $8 stock after news of a potential suitor? ....are you kidding me? :o Thst's why when the selling begins you will see crap falling 20%+ on consecutive daze. I'm anxiously waiting to see how this chit sets up on the charts come 9:50....I'm wreckin these opening highs go bye bye. I haven't made ANY moves yet cept I sold the WM calls cept for the Oct $5's and I have a limit to double my position in ABK Oct 7.50's but I will need a higher high for my limit to get hit. Sooooo, if there are any financial bulls here...please keep buyin! LOL 3J

3J,

The point I made was that the market is (presently) selling the enthusiasm. Pay attention my friend.

Nice! The 96.40 low on SKF goes bye bye. Noooow, for the benefit of TB who needs to learn how to "work within the numbers" ....let's see ifn SKF turns back down as soon as it hits 106.45-108.....that's where the last RSI lows were set ifn you rember. Now....don't WOW me just yet as the SKF now trades at 103.88. *-) This info I be giving you live is werth MILLIONS!!! :o I told yuns sheeple you was lucky I'm around. :-) 3J

Well all I can say 3J is I will sell a reversal. Right now I'm up over 5%.

Better hurry!....SKF only made it to 106.27...Damn I gotta quit missing by a few centavos! Sorry bout that. :-) 3J

A BOOYAH is in order for KrAP! He just eclipsed his previous wreckerd low PeePee score of .08. The "new n improved" wreckerd is now .06! LOL GOOG job KrAP! BTW....you suuuuuuuuck! LOL 3J

3J, I just got 104.31

Ouch. My neck hurts.

Whoa,

UAUA just fell off the map

Well, SKF just made a high of 107.71. That's more like it....I was beginning to think it twas time to trade in my machine for a newer model...or just junk it all together. Missing a purrdixshun on a 106.45 stock bya whole .18 centavos? It's no wonder yuns sheeple were "probly" pee-a-zissed at me. Jeeesh! :o I'll NEVER get rid of my stock pickin dawg Boo though....too GOOG of a "frisbie" mutt. *-) Dang it! SKF thru 109 now! NE1 want a stockpurrdicktin machine reeeal cheep?!! :o 3J

Ouch is right. LOL. I had to jump back on the horse with worse pricing. Cost me 28 cents plus transaction costs.

Burt, what are your thoughts. If the market sells off today and closes lower than Fridays close, would you consider that bearish? I sure would. Kinda like the day oil lost $5 and the market failed its rally.

Holy schniekies on UAUA!!! Terrorist attack?!! :o Hey....that's how Dubya improved his "approval rating" last time! :o 3J

Wow,
It's gone, what the hell happened?

I dunno Burt. That was amazing.

UAUA over the last 10 minutes has trade between 1.7 million and 2.9 million shares PER MINUTE. Is it halted?

Yes! Yes! Yeeeeahsssss! I picked up 1 million shares of UAUA at .01!!! :o Now at 8.97! NE1 want an island?!!! LOL Just jokin sheeple...there was "obviously" some sort of order imbalance there. I wish I knew what to heyell happned around 11 PM. :o 3J

out again 106.64

Bankruptcy rumor on UAUA, they halted trading.

Not that it matters ... I'm much lighter now. I'm thinking the FED has the best trade. I'm going to buy some Treasuries.

TB, will you promise to ssshtick with that trade for a year or 2? :-) Treasuries are a GOOG long term buy being that we will be going to a 0% Fed funds rate as the stock market makes lower lows over the coming months to possibly years...and we head into the deflationary cycle that brings home prices down another 20-30%...plus gas at da pump at 1.50-1.75/gal....no more threats of terrorism since McCain will get absolutley swamped in the prez erection. Sounds like a "glorius" time ahead for all but those who own assets of just about ANY type. :-) 3J

I think you are most likely correct about the long term prospects of government debt. But they are the last line of defense, meaning, they might not be worth much several years from now. I prefer the equity of debt free companies so I probably won't hold that long.

Uhhhm....gimme 1 GOOG debt-free company to look at....and I will "probably" show you a company that will lose 70%+ of its current stock value. LOL And ya know what?>>>>It will be the EXACT same company! :o Go ahead...gimme a GOOGn.....gulp! :o 3J

UAUA trading again. NE1 sooprised by the fact that it is now approaching $12? ....even after I said it will trade through 15.95 before it crashes n burns? :-) Hey! we can't count this morning's BS. Now that the Fed will be too busy to pay attention to the market manipulators don't be sooprised ifn GE opens one day at like $12! :o Thaaaas...right GE!...and it's "the voice" of the manipulators! LOL 3J

I got hosed today. The Dow may be up 275 but everything I owned tanked. Ouch.

Burt,

This was not a 9 to 1 up day.

I notice that declining volume exceeded up volume on the NASDAQ, at least according to Marketwatch.

Here is another Carly Simon song in the spirit of this blog article.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaOyUdiv7rU

Here is a couple more Carly Simon classics dedicated to the local superhero 3J.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApvgvYs5swk&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO4caNnGq6c&feature=related

Instead of "celebratin with Carly" shouldn't we be mourning the sad ending to the Freddie n Fannie saga? :-( I actually feel at least "partially" responsible. Let's look at the evidunce. I 'coulda" went after Fannie...but her asss was waaaay too big for me. I actually felt sorry for Freddie cuz he wuz a nice guy. I tried to help him out simply cuz that Fannie was a beitch! :o But in the short time I hung with Freaky boy I could see why they called him Freaked Out Freddie....the guy had eyes that looked like he smoked a haff an ounce of skunk....plus ate 8 qualudes....two tabs of mescaline, and 3 grams of coke. And that was just before breakfust! :o Can you imagine hangin with a dude like that?! :o Well, that's why I bailed with a "double the money minimum".....I'm glad I didn't stick around cuz I always figured Fannie would "catch down" ta Freddie before she shot him dead. "Looks like" that "might" actually come true....oh shux n sheeeyot...another Foo King GRERRREAT call of mine coming true....too bad my Tai Ming was off. Ooooh well... So fer Fannie jist wounded Freddie at .65 centavos! YIKERS! :o You fellahs "sure" you want govmint intravenus....I mean intervention? Yo Uncle Fester!....can I git Ford at like $1.50???? :o Oh kewel....at least Fester is gonna "think about it" :-) Which company do yuns fokes want saved? I have a fax number for the treasury dept. I will fax you requests directly to Uncle Fester for the bargin basement price of $1per request....I mean $2. I'm sure there will be a great demand for the new service i created because of today's FNM/FRE debacle...actully boondoggle is more appropriate I think. Pleeez...no more than 3....make that 5 requests per customer. Noooow, back to your regularly scheduled programming. *-) 3J

Ok, so I was looking for a new blog today, but only the usual stuff until I saw this sucker with 40 posts.

I accidentally made money today with buy the 2x S&P inverse fund at the open and selling it later. Maybe we should just do the opposite of what makes any sense. I know, the market is waiting for me to sell, so heeeerrre i go, selling FMD which should have given me a 20% pop today instead of a half percent.